When the new president of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, meets for the first time today with Russian leader Vladimir Putin at the peace talks in Paris, the stakes will be huge for him.
More than 14.000 people have been killed in the more than five-year-old conflict in eastern Ukraine between government forces and pro-Russian rebels, and a truce is not yet in sight. Although Zelensky said that ending the conflict is his priority, this political newcomer will be in an unenviable position when he sits down at the table with the veteran leader of the Kremlin, according to AP.
Namely, Zelenski is negotiating with Putin without first being able to arrange a meeting with US President Donald Trump in order to strengthen his position on the world stage.
Also, the host of today's meeting in Paris, Emmanuel Macron, recently made it clear that he wants to restore relations with Russia after five years of sanctions imposed on Russia because of Ukraine. Macron and the other mediator in the negotiations, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, will meet with Zelensky for the first time since it was announced that he criticized them in a telephone conversation with Trump on July 25, which is now the focus of the investigation into the impeachment of the American president.
Therefore, there is concern among those who support the sovereignty of Ukraine, that in these circumstances Zelensky could make too many concessions to Putin. This could cause the anger of Ukrainians who do not want to restore relations with Russia.
The negotiations were organized in the so-called "Normandy format", which was started immediately after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. Consultations were suspended in 2016, but were revived after Zelenski was elected president.
"There is a whole mix of economics and geopolitics that makes the situation in Ukraine extremely difficult," Bruno Lete, a security expert from the German Marshal Foundation, told AP.
"However, it is crucial that the Europeans and the US support Ukraine," Lete claims. "Without peace and stability in Ukraine, there will never be peace and stability in Europe."
The biggest challenge for Kiev is probably France, with Macron recently speaking of NATO being "clinically dead" due to Washington's lack of coordination and leadership, and who also wants to restore relations with Russia.
"It is as if he is telling Russia, we will cooperate, and we will see what we will do with Ukraine," said Lete.
"He should have waited until the Normandy meeting. In this way, he does not help European security".
Negotiations were renewed after several steps aimed at building trust between Moscow and Kyiv, including prisoner exchanges and the withdrawal of troops from both sides.
Teras Kuzio, a security expert and professor at the National University in Kyiv, said that Zelensky had already weakened his position when he agreed to the negotiations even though Russia insists that it will not negotiate on Crimea.
Kuzio described the 41-year-old Zelensky, who until recently was a comedian, as "extremely naive when it comes to international relations" and pointed out that he will find himself in a difficult position - facing a fierce opponent like Putin and the citizens of Ukraine who will reject any kind of capitulation to Moscow.
Kuzio claims that Zelensky apparently does not understand that the Russian leader will never compromise when it comes to the conflict in eastern Ukraine because for Putin, "compromise is equal to defeat."
It certainly does not help Zelenskiy that Macron wants to reset relations with Moscow.
"There is a danger that Macron will ambush Zelensky while actually working for Putin because his new agenda is to improve relations with Russia, to establish normal cooperation," he told AP.
Despite the challenges, Ukraine still has the support of the European Union, its largest foreign donor, and Merkel, who strongly advocates sanctions against Russia. However, Germany's long-term economic interests could pose a problem for Ukraine.
Berlin is considered to have harmed Ukraine's interests by participating in the construction of the Russian-German Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline through which Russian gas will reach Western Europe. Its route bypasses Ukraine, thus depriving it of a significant source of income and an influential position as a transit country.
Relations between Germany and Russia worsened when Berlin expelled two diplomats last Sunday over the murder of a Georgian citizen in Berlin, which prosecutors said was ordered by either Russia or authorities in Chechnya. However, this case, which many compare to the poisoning of Sergei Skripal in Britain, is treated relatively quietly by Berlin, and German officials have repeatedly reiterated that relations with Moscow are good.
The revelations from the telephone conversation with Trump on July 25 do not support Zelenski either.
According to the transcript of the conversation, the Ukrainian leader accused Merkel and Macron of not helping Ukraine enough. At one point, Zelensky tells Trump: "When I spoke with Angela Merkel, she talks about Ukraine, but does nothing."
At the time of the talks, the White House was withholding $400 million worth of military aid to Kiev, adding to Ukraine's fears that the US is turning its back on the vulnerable nation.
Ukrainian suspicions that the West cares more about doing business with Russia than about Ukraine's sovereignty date back to when the former Soviet republic declared independence in 1991.
In a diplomatic cable written in 2009, the then American ambassador to Ukraine, William Taylor, described the frustrations of the political elite in Kyiv. Ukrainians believe that Berlin is "an obstacle to their aspirations to join the EU and NATO," Taylor wrote in the cable, which was published by WikiLeaks.
Taylor, who is now acting ambassador to Ukraine and has testified in the impeachment inquiry before Congress, quoted the vivid wording of the former chairman of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, Vladimir Horbulin. Taylor wrote that Horbulin joked that there were two Russian embassies in Kiev, but that "one spoke German."
Vadim Karasev, head of the Institute for Global Strategies, an independent organization in Kyiv, told AP that Europeans are "tired of the endless problems of Kyiv and are increasingly turning to Moscow, which has all the means to influence the situation."
"They are increasingly reminding Kyiv of the postponement of reforms and widespread corruption, instead of talking about solidarity and a common European home," said Karasev.
European powers, according to him, "cannot endlessly deal with Kiev's problems when they have a bunch of their own problems to solve."
Ukrainians will not want peace at the price of capitulation
Thousands of people gathered yesterday in the center of Kyiv to send a message to Zelenskyi that Ukrainians will not agree to peace at the cost of the independence and sovereignty of their country. "We are here because we are not satisfied with peace at any price... peace at the price of capitulation," Ina Sovsun, MP from the opposition party Glas, said at the rally.
Historian Vladimir Vyatrovich said that many centuries and the recent history of Ukraine have shown that Kyiv must not trust in Moscow's good will. "It seems that Zelenskiy's new team is returning to that wrong strategy, which is based on the idea that we can agree with Russia," Vjatrovič said.
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