The war in Libya: A new twist, a possible conflict between Turkey and Russia and the Syrian scenario

Unrest in Libya has not stopped since the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, according to AFP, adding that the escalation in fighting comes despite increased international pressure on both sides to return to talks on a political solution and stop the violence due to concerns over the spread of the coronavirus.
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Military forces loyal to the recognized government of Libya, Photo: AP
Military forces loyal to the recognized government of Libya, Photo: AP
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

The advance of forces loyal to the internationally recognized government of Libya in the war with the fighters of the rebel general Khalifa Haftar marked a new turn in the long-standing conflict, but peace is still far away with fears of further escalation and greater interference by foreign powers, especially Turkey and Russia, which support the conflicting parties, reports Radio Free Europe writing world media.

Despite defeats in the past few weeks, the rebel Libyan general who controls the east and much of the south of the country said the fight against forces supporting the UN-recognised government of national unity will continue, according to Agence France-Presse.

Haftar has been trying to capture the capital for more than a year, but the military tide has turned in recent weeks and his forces have lost several towns and a key air base.

Khalifa Haftar
Haftar(Photo: AP)

The government in Tripoli is aided by Turkey, which has recently stepped up military support with armed drones, air defenses and Syrian mercenaries linked to extremist groups.

This has helped in the fight against Haftar's forces, which are backed by the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Russian mercenaries.

Unrest in Libya has not stopped since the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, according to AFP, adding that the escalation in fighting is occurring despite increased international pressure on both sides to return to negotiations on a political solution and stop the violence due to concerns over the spread of the coronavirus.

Haftar's call for an all-out military conflict with Turkish forces supporting the government in Tripoli has prompted warnings from Ankara that it will retaliate, raising the prospect of a new dangerous escalation of the war, according to Bloomberg.

A spokesman for the Turkish president warned that Turkey would respond to any attack in the "strongest way", while a senior Turkish official said the country's military was well prepared to defend areas under Turkish protection using drones and warships deployed near Tripoli.

Ankara has also sent surface-to-air missile defense systems to Libya, according to Bloomberg, adding that Haftar's forces were on the verge of capturing Tripoli before Turkey intensified its intervention earlier this year, when it sent thousands of Syrian fighters.

Tripoli security chief Fati Bashaga said two Sukhoi 24s and at least six Migos accompanied by two newer Russian fighter jets flew east from a Russian-controlled airbase in Syria.

However, Bloomberg notes, it is not clear whether these were refurbished planes belonging to Haftar's air force or new additions to his fleet.

While international forces warn of an escalation of fighting, some experts, as pointed out by Blumbeg, believe that such a scenario is not necessary and that the Russian and Turkish leaders could restart negotiations on a ceasefire in Libya.

Although the victories of Ankara-backed forces appeared to change the course of the war, they may not be final, the New York Times points out, noting that Haftar's next move will be determined by his sponsors in Moscow, Cairo and Abu Dhabi.

A series of quick victories by Turkish-backed forces in western Libya have dealt a heavy blow to Haftar's ambitions, signaling the arrival of Turkey as a potentially decisive force among the UAE and Russia vying for supremacy in the oil-rich North African nation.

Foreign leaders who backed Haftar's assault on Tripoli, which has killed hundreds of civilians and displaced 400.000 people, are already reconsidering their support for a stubborn ally who has repeatedly rejected political talks.

However, the New York Times adds, many analysts say that now is the best opportunity for Haftar to finally join the political negotiations.

Several rapid military reversals in Libya have dashed warlords' hopes of controlling the North African oil producer and allowed Turkey and Russia to strengthen their roles in one of the world's most important regions, the Washington Post reports.

Both countries, according to the American newspaper, want multimillion-dollar contracts for oil, gas and construction, as well as military bases that will serve as gateways to increase influence throughout Africa.

But the conflict is far from over, UN officials and analysts say, with growing concerns that it could draw Turkey and Russia into another confrontation and turn Libya into a Syrian battleground.

UN envoy for Libya Stephanie Williams has warned the Security Council that an "alarming military build-up" is taking place in defiance of the UN arms embargo.

"We have reached the second turning point of the conflict," she said, adding that an escalation could trigger a "pure proxy war."

In many ways, Libya is already in such a war - one of the largest internationalized conflicts in the world - in the competition for lucrative oil and gas resources, territory and ideological and geostrategic ambitions, the paper assesses, highlighting the division of many other countries on the issue of Libya.

France and Greece support Haftar, while Italy and others support the government in Tripoli.

The US reportedly supports the government, but has sent mixed signals by keeping channels open with Haftar, who holds American citizenship in addition to his Libyan citizenship.

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