Even before US President Donald Trump took the oath of office in 2017, serious observers were concerned about the fragility of the democratic order of the United States of America and its all too obvious dictatorial tendencies.
Partly it was his obvious narcissism and contempt for the truth, but also his willingness to flout long-standing norms, his thick record of fraud and shady business dealings, and his apparent admiration for dictators in other countries. Trump's arrival helped make books like "How Democracies Die" and "On Tyranny" become bestsellers, while journalists and political scientists began compiling lists of "warning signs" of creeping authoritarianism. I was overly optimistic and pretty sure that Trump would be terrible at managing both domestic and foreign policy—and I was right—but I believed that his age, short attention span, lack of knowledge, and other flaws would limit his ability to consolidate power. Unlike some optimists, I did not expect him to live up to the responsibilities of the office, but I believed that the system of checks and balances built into our constitutional order would restrain him enough to protect the essential features of American democracy. How wrong I was.
I knew that would-be authoritarians rarely change their minds and become committed to personal responsibility, the rule of law, or fair elections. What I failed to predict was that Trump's authoritarian ambitions would worsen the longer he sat in the Oval Office, and that his ability to follow through on them would increase as soon as he had the opportunity to replace men with integrity and true commitment to the oath to defend the Constitution with servants, opportunists and power-loving ideologues.
Trump now has plenty of reasons to do everything in his power to stay in power, if only to keep himself and his family out of jail and to avoid losing his ill-gotten gains over the life of a legally dubious business, not to mention the millions of dollars in business he enabled himself as president.
If you cherish the core values of the American Constitution (however imperfect the way we achieved them) and want to live in a country where the rule of law is still in place and the voice of the people is still clearly heard, you have plenty of reason to be very concerned. .
The following is a list of warning signs of democratic failure:
1. Systemic efforts to intimidate the media
This tactic has been a central feature of Trump's presidency from the beginning, whether in the form of constant tweets about "fake news" and not-too-subtle attempts to threaten the owners of media he doesn't like (like CNN or the Washington Post). As he reportedly admitted to CBS reporter Leslie Stahl, Trump attacks reporters quite deliberately. “He said 'Do you know why I'm doing this? To discredit and humiliate you all, so that no one will believe you when you write negatively about me,'” she later told PBS.

In May, for example, Trump signed an executive order that could eventually allow the government to monitor political speech online. He did so on the same Sunday that Twitter tagged two of his erroneous posts with a "fact check" tag.
The administration has also increased criminal prosecutions including the use of classified information by journalists, searches their electronic devices and monitors the movements of reporters, and the Trump campaign has sued the New York Times, CNN and other media outlets for defamation. Trump's constant labeling of the media as the "enemy of the people" may have inspired supporters to threaten media outlets and prompted arrests and attacks on journalists covering recent demonstrations in several US cities. As Chris Wallace of the otherwise pro-Trump Fox News put it recently, "President Trump is engaging in the most direct and sustained attack on press freedom in our history."
2. Building an official pro-Trump media network
Earlier reports that Trump (or one of his sons) would start his own media company turned out to be unfounded. But the president doesn't need to when Fox News is almost entirely in his camp, when Fox News host Sean Hannity is reportedly his close personal adviser, and when the even more eccentric network One America is reliably on his side. Trump can also count on radio host Rush Limbaugh (to whom he awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom last year) to relay whatever new lie the president decides to tweet (like telling listeners that the coronavirus is the "common cold" and just a left-wing conspiracy to the overthrow of Trump). Who needs justice when they have Limbo?
3. Politicization of the civil service, the army, the National Guard or domestic security agencies
The president may be the commander-in-chief and head of the executive branch, but soldiers and civil servants swear an oath to the constitution, not to an individual. Ignoring that principle, Trump has tried to get government officials to express "loyalty" to him personally and presides over cabinet meetings where members praise him so much it's embarrassing. He replaced Attorney General Jeff Sessions with William Barr after Sessions demonstrated some degree of integrity, and Barr's willingness to protect the president and even lie on his behalf makes former Justice Secretary Robert F. Kennedy's loyalty to his brother John and former Attorney General John F. Mitchell to former President Richard Nixon seem old-fashioned. In any case, it's a pretty small step from believing in the president's total control over the executive branch to holding that he should be entirely above the law. Trump wouldn't mind that.
Those efforts recently took an even more serious turn. Trump has replaced experienced officials with unqualified loyalists — such as appointing former ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell as acting director of national intelligence — and pressured the Navy to reverse its decision to reinstate the commander of the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier.

The use of tear gas and federal agents to remove protesters from Lafayette Square in Washington so that Trump could have his photo taken, and the presence of Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley and Defense Secretary Mark Esper in his entourage (for which Milley later apologized), is another instance where Trump tried to integrate non-partisan institutions into his environment.
Finally, the recent campaign to remove independent inspectors general - in the Department of State, the Department of Defense, Health, Welfare, and Transportation, as well as in the intelligence services - smacks of political revanchism (eg, in the case of the inspector general who passed on a whistleblower's report alleging that Trump tried to withhold US aid to force Ukraine to smear former Vice President Joe Biden) or the desire to protect top officials from independent oversight. Either way, it's another sign that Trump thinks government agencies work for him, not the American taxpayer.
4. Use of government surveillance against domestic political opponents
I don't know if Trump is using the FBI, CIA or other surveillance capabilities to spy on the Biden campaign or to monitor other political opponents. But we do know that the federal government is surveilling people who protest the administration's immigration policies, and Trump has threatened to designate the Antifa movement as a terrorist organization, which could allow domestic security agencies to conduct more far-reaching surveillance of anti-Trump protests. Trump and his allies are not shy about using government institutions to improve his political chances, and sometimes openly say so.
5. Using state power to reward supporters and punish opponents
It is not news that the Trump administration is deeply corrupt and that Trump and his family use high office to enrich themselves in various ways. Sometimes these intertwined relationships are almost comical, as when the Trump Organization asked the Trump administration for a break on the rent it owes on the building that houses the Trump International hotel in Washington. Other examples are more serious, however, according to a recent study by the Brookings Institution, the administration's response to the deadly coronavirus pandemic has been marred by inadequate oversight and clear signs of corruption. “There have been reports that 27 lobbyist clients associated with Trump have received up to $10,5 billion in government money earmarked to fight the coronavirus; that the beneficiaries included multiple entities connected to Jared Kushner's family and other Trump associates and political allies; that up to $273 million was awarded to more than 100 companies owned or operated by major donors to the Trump campaign; and that many other transactions occurred that merit further investigation,” the study said.

Meanwhile, organizations deemed hostile by Trump risk harsh treatment.
6. Adjusting the composition of the Supreme Court
The president's ability to fill the Supreme Court with those who support him depends on the vacancy and the consent of the Senate. Trump does not have to worry about the Senate, which allowed him to appoint two new judges during his first term. He didn't go any further, but only because he didn't have another chance since the controversial appointment of Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
Meanwhile, Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell are doing a good job of rigging the lower courts, including some nominees with questionable qualifications. And if you think this is just an issue of abortion rights or gun control, think again. If the 2020 election is uncertain, lower court rulings on potential election irregularities could mean a lot. Several recent decisions (in Wisconsin, Texas, Florida and Alabama) have opened the door to exactly the kind of influence on the outcome of the vote that would benefit Trump. As other democratically elected autocrats well know, checks and balances and the rule of law are no obstacle once the judiciary is transformed from overseer to henchman.
7. The law is imposed only on one party
While he doesn't mince words when criticizing immigrants, protesters, and the extremely dangerous, treacherous, threatening, and sleeping Biden, Trump mostly turns a blind eye to far more serious criminals. Although right-wing terrorist groups and white supremacists are responsible for far more deaths in the US than left-wing protesters or foreign terrorist groups, Trump has repeatedly shown that he sympathizes with them.
At the same time, Trump is happy to pardon his criminal associates, such as convicted felon Roger Stone, and Barr ordered the Justice Department to drop charges against former national security adviser Michael Flynn — who had already pleaded guilty — in a highly unusual move that prompted 2.000 former employees of the Ministry of Justice to sign an open letter warning that Bar has once again "attacked the rule of law".

There are two legal systems in Trump's America. One is for the president and his cronies, and the other is for fools like you. The situation is the same in other autocracies.
8. Stealing the system
When someone like David Brooks of the New York Times writes a column telling you to prepare to participate in a massive campaign of civil disobedience after the November election, you know we're in serious trouble.
Trump has made it abundantly clear that he will do everything in his power to rig the election in his favor. He has no choice: unemployment is high, evictions are rising, deficits are growing, the trade deficits he promised to fix are still there, and his administration's sloppy response to the pandemic, which Trump has consistently denied, will claim about 200.000 US lives by Election Day. , although many other countries have managed to return to normal life.

Even with the advantages offered by the Electoral College, Trump faces a humiliating, if deserved, defeat. As he does on the golf course, he is ready to cheat in elections. He urged supporters to vote twice if they could. He's trying to disrupt the US Postal Service by making it less able to handle the backlog of ballots while falsely claiming that voting by mail (which he uses himself) is full of fraud. He and his subordinates are reluctant to say publicly that they will leave office if defeated.
9. Spreading fear
What do you do when you're behind in the polls, have no idea how to get people back to work, and can't contain the pandemic? Simple: try to scare people with something else. Just as in the 2016 campaign he made irresponsible claims about Muslims, Mexican "rapists" and other foreign dangers, this time he is working overtime to convince voters that US cities are on fire and angry mobs of non-whites are moving to the suburbs to take over homes and destroyed their way of life. When Trump warned of "American bloodshed" in his inaugural address in January 2017, we didn't realize he was telling us what he intended to accomplish as president.
He tries to convince people that somehow Biden is too tired to be president (and he isn't), and at the same time a dangerous amalgam of Malcolm X, the Red Army faction and the Zodiac killer. It's a transparent and desperate ploy — especially considering the crime rate remains at historically low levels — but lies have worked for Trump before.

Let's be clear: Violent protests are wrong and destruction of property should be condemned regardless of who the perpetrators are. Biden understands this, of course, and has clearly condemned violent extremism of all kinds. Trump doesn't mind when his supporters threaten or commit violence and hardly ever openly condemns them. Instead, his only hope is to sow as much division and hatred as possible between now and November 3, in the hope that it might get enough scared people to vote for him or perhaps take to the streets if he loses. And that's what's really scary.
10. Demonizing the opposition
This warning sign is a classic authoritarian move and is closely related to the number 9. As his attacks on the media illustrate, it has been a key part of Trump's playbook throughout his political career. In Trump's world, it is impossible to imagine legitimate differences between equally patriotic and responsible Americans, the kind of honest disagreements that democratic systems exist to accommodate and reconcile. Either you are with him, or you are evil, deranged, crazy, rogue, traitor, etc. Of course, as many have noted, Trump's character is best told by the accusations he routinely makes against others. As his political star dims, so does this tendency.
Take his demagogic Independence Day speech on Mount Rushmore as an example. In addition to the standard speech about the Founding Fathers and the Revolutionary War, Trump took the opportunity to lash out at "angry mobs" who desecrate "sacred monuments," accusing opponents of trying to "start a violent crime wave," advocating "totalitarianism" and " ultra-left fascism”. These accusations had little or no basis, and the speech made no attempt to unite the American people in the face of many challenges. But when your intent is to convince enough voters that the other side is worse than you, then making up scare stories is what we have to expect.
There is no reason to believe that re-election would suddenly instill in this dishonest and self-serving narcissist a new commitment to the basic principles of American democracy. On the contrary, it will only strengthen his belief that he can get away with anything. How about a third term, you fools? Maybe Ivanka Trump can run for office in 2028, so we'll set it up for her too. Do you think there is a law or norm that he would not break if he thought it was in his favor and that he would not be prevented? What members of today's Republican Party would suddenly muster up the courage to try to stop him?
When the president and his administration break some laws with impunity, there's no reason to believe they won't break even bigger ones if they think they can get away with it. This means that each of us becomes vulnerable to whatever they want to do.
The author is a professor of international relations at Harvard
Translated and edited by: Angelina Šofranac
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