January - Joe Biden
The inauguration of Joe Biden as the 46th president of the USA on January 20 is a positive start to the year, according to British "Guardian" columnist Simon Tisdall. The US will rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization. Biden will offer closer cooperation with allies in Europe and Asia and, as vaccination against Covid-19 gathers pace, he is planning a major stimulus package to revive the US economy.
His choice of cabinet members heralds a return to multilateralism and a rules-based international order. His flagship initiative is a new "alliance of democracies," Tisdal writes.
The goal seems to be to counter China while avoiding direct confrontation with it. Relations with other authoritarian regimes, such as Saudi Arabia, will be cooler. New trade agreements will wait for the recovery of the USA, according to the Guardian analysis.
Biden's honeymoon will be short, and unless Democrats win the Georgia re-election on January 5, Republicans will retain control of the Senate, allowing them to obstruct the new president.
Those hoping for quick action on police violence and racism in general may be disappointed and turn against Biden, Tisdal predicts.
Biden faces three personal political challenges in 2021: the myth of a "stolen election" promoted by Donald Trump, who - if he doesn't end up in jail - will use the TV networks and his fan base to undermine his successor; left-wing Democrats who oppose his centrist policies; nagging questions about his health, which at 78 could be a distraction.
February - Recep Tayyip Erdogan
The Turkish president, who turns 67 in February and celebrates two decades since he founded the ruling Justice and Development Party, is described by Tisdal as a typical elected strongman. "The global struggle for power between such leaders and reformist, pro-democracy forces from Peru and Thailand through Belarus to Hong Kong will mark 2021," a British newspaper columnist says. Erdogan leads an aggressive foreign policy with the aim of stirring up nationalist-patriotic feelings and diverting attention from domestic problems, Tisdal points out. He foresees additional violence against the Kurds in Syria and more meddling by Turkey in Libya, the Balkans and the Caucasus. Trump's departure, on the other hand, could encourage Erdogan to improve relations with the EU, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The success of authoritarian leaders such as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and the leaders of Venezuela, the Philippines, and India stems in part from the tacit consent, indifference, or realpolitik of the West, and this is not expected to change significantly, according to the analysis. .
March - Bashar al-Assad
March marks 10 years since the start of the disastrous civil war in Syria. This year, the pressure to prosecute Bashar al-Assad and other war criminals will increase, but he can still count on the protection of Russia and Iran, according to Tisdal.
This year also marks two decades of war in Afghanistan, from which Biden wants to withdraw, but not before reaching a credible peace agreement between the government there and the Taliban.
Tisdal predicts that for people in other conflict zones, 2021 will be a year of living dangerously. And in the event that a truce takes place and elections are held in Libya, that country continues to serve as a battleground for regional states. And the conflict in Yemen could begin to wind down if, as promised, Biden obliges the Saudis to withdraw. Ethiopia, meanwhile, enters 2021 waging a pointless war in Tigray.
April - Emmanuel Macron
In April, it will be four years since the young political newcomer Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the presidential election and subsequently won the Elysée Palace. He will face the voters again in April 2022. A major influence on their decision will be Macron's performance as a champion of French secularism and tackling the problems of Islamist terrorism and "separatism".
"Unlike other Western leaders, Macron offers an ideological refutation of the extremists' attempts to divide the people along religious lines, supporting the egalitarian, republican principle of universal citizenship," Tisdal points out. According to the Global Terrorism Index, the frequency of Islamist terrorist attacks in Europe declined in 2020 and that trend could continue this year. The "Guardian's" analysis states that in 2021, the focus of extremists, especially branches of the Islamic State, will be sub-Saharan Africa, where Boko Haram terrorizes rural areas.
Tisdal writes that the trend of increasing violence by ultra-rightists and white supremacists in Europe and the US could continue this year, where it has become a greater threat than jihadism. The pandemic could exacerbate that trend, fueled by populist politicians and social alienation, inequality, poor education and racial hatred.
May - Nicholas Sturgeon
Britain faces a triple challenge in 2021 - containing Covid-19 while trying to achieve economic recovery, dealing with the chaos caused by Brexit and avoiding a constitutional crisis and the breakup of the United Kingdom. The Guardian's columnist says that Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon will play a key role in all three dramas, but her Scottish National Party's initiative for independence could dominate.
If the SNP wins the Scottish Parliament elections in May, it will launch an initiative for a second referendum, but British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he will not allow another plebiscite. Sturgeon is popular, but many Scots say health and the economy are more important issues than independence.
June - Hassan Rouhani
Iran's June 18 presidential election and the departure of Hassan Rouhani, who cannot run for a third term, could be a turning point for the Middle East. Tisdal says Rouhani has disappointed - he has failed to deliver on his promise of reform and his rule has been marked by repression at home, an economic recession caused by covid, corruption and US sanctions. At least Rouhani was not against dialogue with the West and had a moderate, pragmatic approach. If the candidate of anti-Western conservatives and military chiefs wins the election, it could destroy the chances of a new start with Tehran.
A lot in the region will depend on the character of the post-Rohani era. Iran's conflict with Israel, which is being waged through its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Gaza, could intensify if the hard-liners win power, Tisdal believes. And also regional competition with the Arab states in the Gulf as Saudi Arabia considers reconciliation with Israel, after the UAE and Bahrain did so. Iranian moderates are hoping that Biden's offer of sanctions relief will swing the election in their favor.
This year could also bring another big moment in the Middle East - the political downfall of Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister. He is facing accusations of corruption and fraud, and his ruling coalition is on shaky ground. However, regardless of who will succeed him, Palestinian hopes for an independent state could be further undermined by new agreements between Arab states with Israel and among themselves, writes Simon Tisdall.
July - Xi Jinping
That month marks the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, founded by, among others, Mao Zedong.
A Guardian analysis suggests that China's modern-day Mao, de facto president for life Xi Jinping, may have even greater personal power. Under his baton, China has gone from a "peaceful rise" to an aggressive potential hegemon, it is estimated and forecast that in 2021 we will witness an increasingly coordinated Western confrontation.
China's attempts to intimidate countries such as Australia and Canada by taking hostages and blocking imports, its disdain for European countries such as Britain and its willingness to defy major competitors such as India and the US portend a difficult year of even deeper friction on several fronts, the analysis says.
Among the foci are Beijing's attacks on democracy in Hong Kong and Taiwan, military build-up, human rights abuses, the global expansion of Chinese technology companies, Western trade sanctions and protectionism, and strategic competition for resources and influence in Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America, as and in space.
"An intense debate in Britain about co-operation with China - particularly around Chinese investment in critical security infrastructure such as communications and nuclear power - will take place across Europe, where Beijing is wooing disillusioned EU members and non-bloc Balkan countries such as Serbia," writes Tisdall.
Biden has said he wants to reduce tensions but will not lift sanctions until the US economy strengthens and US-led coalitions come together to match China in its global game.
August - Antonio Guterres
The 2020 Olympics will culminate in Tokyo in August unless postponed again. The spirit of global cooperation will be needed more in 2021 than ever before as the world recovers from the pandemic. Tisdal points out that UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres will lead the fight.
Richer countries can find their own ways to avoid covid, but it is up to Guterres and UN agencies to ensure that everyone is safe in the end. This year, a record 235 million people will need humanitarian assistance and protection.
The independent National Vaccine Association predicts that people in up to 70 lower-income countries will be losers in the 2021 "vaccine race."
Existing challenges, such as water scarcity, will affect more than three billion people this year. Six countries - Afghanistan, Yemen, Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria and South Sudan - are facing famine this year.
September - Angela Merkel
Federal elections in September will see Angela Merkel, the German chancellor since 2005 and the first woman in that position, into political retirement. Tisdal believes that her departure will be a turning point for Germany and Europe. The race to succeed her as leader of the Christian Democrats will culminate this month. The September elections could bring big changes, and attention will be particularly focused on the Greens and the ultra-right Alternative for Germany.
"The loss of Merkel as a stable and unifying influence will be felt strongly within the EU, especially regarding key issues such as the harmonization of the Eurozone, the EU budget and NATO. Macron has a vision of a stronger and more integrated 'global Europe' that fights for its values and interests. Merkel often hit the brakes. Her departure and the approaching elections in France could lead to an outpouring of Franco-German tensions," Tisdal writes.
He estimates that support for European ultra-right populist parties will be a significant factor in 2021 as well, especially in the debate about migration.
"With the new US administration focused primarily on domestic issues, Chinese tanks metaphorically parked on its lawn, and Russia as a neighbor from hell, Europe is facing a year of challenges that could further test its unity," Tisdal points out.
October - Vladimir Putin
Putin was born in St. Petersburg, then Leningrad, on October 7, 1952, 35 years after the October Revolution that eventually created the Soviet Union. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the collapse of the USSR. The Guardian's analysis states that the former KGB spy devoted his political career to trying to revive the Soviet empire. "Putin may need a new October Revolution to preserve the unity of today's Russia," Tisdal says.
He states that Putin seems tired and isolated, that his popularity is declining, as are Russia's oil revenues. Tisdal adds that Putin's conquests in the neighborhood are also failing. Protesters in Belarus resist repression, anti-Russian and pro-democracy movements in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan are strong. According to Tisdal, the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan showed the limits of Russian power.
"After two decades of territory grabbing, assassinations, rampant corruption and subversion, Putin has few international allies. Russia is under EU and US sanctions. Trump, always strangely condescending, left. Western countries generally feel fear and loathing towards Putin. The story of the military alliance with China is a reflection of his weakness. In short, he seems vulnerable".
November - Zair Bolsonaro
The UK will host a UN climate conference in November, hoping to give a fresh boost to the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Humans continue to cause enormous damage to the planet, says UN chief Antonio Guterres. A million species are at risk of extinction. Ecosystems are disappearing before our eyes. He wants all governments to declare a climate emergency in 2021.
Tisdal writes that the right-wing populist president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, is at the head of the "suicidal war against nature". Deforestation in the Amazon, a vital carbon store that slows global warming, is at its highest level in a decade and has accelerated since Bolsonaro came to power. "Such environmental hooliganism could worsen in 2021," Tisdal points out.
States' promises to reduce emissions of harmful gases are encouraging, but the race against time to save the planet will certainly accelerate this year.
December - Kim Jong Un
In December, it will be exactly 10 years since Kim Jong Un succeeded his father Kim Jong Il as the supreme leader of North Korea. Trump's vaunted efforts to strike a deal with Kim to end his nuclear and ballistic weapons programs have failed, but Biden has no new ideas. Tisdal says the worrisome question for this year is whether Kim will continue his nuclear tests.
Even greater challenges will arise due to nuclear proliferation, predicts the British journalist. Fears could grow that Iran is trying to get an atomic bomb, especially in nuclear-armed Israel. The Saudis may seek to acquire a parallel nuclear capability. The reason for the increased concern, he sees in the border tensions between nuclear powers China and India, and between India and Pakistan.
Biden intends to extend the arms control agreement with Moscow that expires in February. However, neither he nor anyone else is offering denuclearization this year.
The majority of UN members have ratified the treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons, which enters into force on January 22. While it lacks power, it's a hopeful step, Tisdal concludes.
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