France, Great Britain and Germany did not fight for any international agreement as much as they did for the nuclear agreement with Iran. It was signed five years ago, and has been on ice since the end of 2018, since Trump left the agreement.
The agreement to curtail Iran's nuclear program has long been considered the greatest success of common European foreign policy - but now it is seriously being called into question.
The hawks in Tehran seem to have prevailed. Thus, it is legally regulated to increase uranium production to 20 percent at the Fordas nuclear plant. Thus, Iran is still below the limit required for the production of weapons materials, but exceeds the contractually agreed limit by more than three percent. At the same time, IAEA inspectors from Vienna should not be allowed access to the facilities.
Neither the seizure of the South Korean tanker, nor the continuation of Tehran's cynical hostage policy with the capture of citizens of Western countries or those with dual citizenship inspire confidence. Because this announcement of uranium enrichment is actually a declaration of war on the international community.
The goal of the agreement was to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, which would put pressure on neighboring countries and destabilize the already explosive region even more. Tehran's military influence is already keeping the war in Syria simmering and standing in the way of international peace efforts. A nuclear-armed Iran is a terrifying vision for the West.
President Rouhani criticized the announced policy change. But moderates like him are losing ground, and the elections are in the summer. A faction of hardliners is forming and aggressively charging forward. Considering the economic crisis the country has fallen into, among other things due to the latest US economic sanctions, Iranian experts are also wondering how the mullahs will even pay for new centrifuges and an accelerated nuclear program. Because it seems that this is not about the real economy.
Tehran provokes the international community and tries to blackmail. Let's put it this way: when the other signatories of the agreement, and especially the US, meet their obligations again, Iran could very quickly return to respecting the agreement.
Therefore, the relationship with the new American government was strained from the start. Joe Biden's advisers hinted that there could be a return to the agreement. But it will be difficult to sell that story on the internal political level in the US if it is seen that Washington is provoked by Tehran's open violation of the agreement.
The fact that Iran announced new uranium enrichment a year after Trump left the deal and after the killing of powerful military commander Soleimani by a US drone is a signal to nationalists and is intended to demonstrate the power of the mullahs' regime.
The best allies of the regime in Tehran have so far been sitting in Paris, London and Berlin. Time and again they gave support to the government of that country - economically and politically. Just before Christmas, they declared that they would approve the continuation of negotiations with Iran without any conditions from Tehran.
For that, the Europeans got nothing in return. When German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas eventually appealed to Tehran not to close to the US, he appeared desperate and it was obvious that he was speaking to the wind.
Perhaps such diplomatic efforts are interpreted in Tehran as weakness, which can be responded to aggressively with impunity. The Europeans have reached the end of their velvet glove method. Now they would have to come to an agreement with the Biden administration and set clear conditions on whether and how the nuclear agreement can be revived.
It also includes a discussion about Iran's missile program and the country's political-military role in the region. The authorities in Tehran can no longer be spared from confrontation: constructive cooperation, which all the signatories of the agreement hoped for five years ago, can only be achieved with recognizable counter-services.
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