When will the coronavirus pandemic end: What did the director of the WHO actually say about Europe?

While many fear the mutations of the coronavirus and the third wave, worldwide the number of infections is decreasing. Is the virus losing its strength or, simply, are the measures to suppress the pandemic working?

With the beginning of spring, many lose patience: they need perspective. When will the lockdown gradually end? When could they finally count on vaccination? When is this complete madness going to end?

The debate was additionally fueled by alleged statements from the World Health Organization (WHO) about the imminent end of the pandemic.

The director of the WHO for Europe, the Belgian Hans Henri Kluge, told the Danish public TV service that we will "get over the pandemic in a few months".

WHO director says he was misunderstood

After fierce debates in professional circles and on social networks, Kluge told the Second Program of the German public service ZDF: "I never said that."

Instead he says he said that no one can predict when the pandemic will be defeated.

"I would say, purely hypothetically, that we will have the pandemic behind us at the beginning of 2022," added the director of the WHO for Europe. The coronavirus will still be there, but he is convinced that strict measures will not be necessary then.

Warnings from German virologists not to relax measures

Many in scientific circles shook their heads at the alleged quote from the director of the World Health Organization. Virologist Christian Drosten of Berlin's Charite clinic on Twitter clearly rejected claims that the virus has weakened: “No, there is no indication at this time that any known mutant has weakened. It is pure speculation," wrote Drosten.

A virologist from the Sharita clinic announced in early January in a NDR television podcast that it will take some time until the virus becomes endemic, that is, it remains present, but only occurs locally. The situation regarding the corona virus could become dangerous in 2021, that scientist also told the magazine "Spiegel".

Politician and epidemiologist Karl Lauterbach (SPD) has a similar view of the situation and warns – like many other politicians – about hasty loosening of measures. The Prime Minister of Bavaria, Markus Zeder, said, regarding tomorrow's (3.3.) consultation of Chancellor Merkel with the Prime Ministers of the German provinces on the corona, that now we should not fall into some kind of "ecstasy due to easing of measures".

Change in the trend of the number of infected people

The number of confirmed infections with the SARS-CoV-2 virus at the end of February worldwide was around 114 million. About 2,5 million people died as a result of the infection, and 64,4 million were cured.

In absolute terms, these are frightening numbers, and the virus is raging as before in certain countries. In addition, there are fears that virus mutations could accelerate the arrival of a third wave of infection. However, globally, it turns out to be a surprise and a kind of relaxation.

According to data from the World Health Organization, the number of infections in the last two months around the world has been noticeably decreasing - and much faster than predicted. In mid-January, 700.000 people were infected per day, and in the meantime that number has almost halved. The number of deaths was almost halved.

WHO Secretary General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, with due caution, described the decline in the number of infected as a "sign of hope". "Although we are discussing vaccines today, this trend is also a reminder that covid 19 can be suppressed and controlled by means of public health. Many countries have done just that."

Numerous reasons cited as the reason for the global decline in the number of infections were also taken as arguments for further steps. It is clear that it cannot be only vaccination, considering that only a small part of the population has been vaccinated so far. It is certain that in many countries the effect is shown by observing the rules of keeping distance and hygiene. This speaks in favor of a slight easing of strict contact restrictions.

In certain countries, such as the United States of America and Brazil, so many people have been infected so far that one can almost speak of basic immunization of the population there. In other words, if registered and possibly unregistered cases are added up, it turns out that in the USA - in a very losing way - collective immunity is being established.

In addition, and although it may sound strange now, some researchers advocate the view that the coronavirus will significantly weaken in the medium term - due to mutations.

In mid-February, American researchers from Atlanta and Pennsylvania universities, led by biologist Jenny Lavin, published a sensational study in the professional magazine "Science". The study predicts that the coronavirus will quickly become "endemic" due to mutations, so it will only occur locally. Thus, the virus will lose its terrifying power, and the global vaccination campaign will only speed things up.

And the flu pandemic suddenly disappeared

These forecasts are confirmed by the assessments of Klaus Šter, who managed the global influenza program at the World Health Organization and was the coordinator of SARS research. Experiences with the flu, according to Šter, could clearly show that the infection is very likely to disappear just as suddenly. Namely, both devastating flu pandemics – the 1957 “Asian flu” that claimed four million lives and the 1968 “Hong Kong flu” that killed three million people – disappeared as suddenly as they appeared.

During the "Spanish Flu" after the First World War, the most deaths were recorded in the second wave. From 1918 to 1919 and 1920, it is estimated that more than 50 million people died. The third wave roared out very quickly, but the pathogen remained. In a weakened form, the H1N1 virus still occurs today in normal flu.

Will the corona remain as a harmless long-term guest?

Things could develop similarly with the SARS-COV-2 virus: it is assumed that the coronavirus will persist and occur locally. He'll get weaker and weaker due to mutations and won't be as scary anymore. But until that happens, until the global trend stabilizes, the difficult balancing act between contact restrictions and possible easing of measures to contain the pandemic will remain in place.