Anger boils over poverty and injustice

A pile of fake corpses is scattered around the center of Bangkok. The bodies – white sacks filled with hay and splashed with red paint – symbolized Thailand's victims of Covid-19. "They are dead because this government has failed," one protester yelled into a megaphone. To emphasize the point, the demonstrators placed "corpses" over the giant portrait of the prime minister, which they then set on fire, writes "Ekonomist".

In many countries around the world, the pandemic is causing unrest. Citizens are angry about the economic hardships they face. They witnessed how the rich and those with good connections go over the line to receive a vaccine, to be treated, to receive state aid. They are angry that their leaders did not do a better job of fighting the coronavirus. At the same time, people's suffering has created a sense of solidarity that fuels grievances that have been simmering long before anyone heard of covid-19.

Protests in Thailand erupted on July 18 as the delta variant ran rampant, leading to the country's worst wave of covid-19 to date. Hospitals are overwhelmed. Only 5% of the Thai population is fully vaccinated. Thais had hoped for a quick economic recovery, after GDP fell 6,1% in 2020, but that now seems unlikely. The Bank of Thailand recently cut its growth forecast for 2021 from 3% to 1,8%.

Many Thais resent the authorities for failing to provide enough vaccines quickly enough and for reopening the country too quickly to foreign tourists, who they fear may have contributed to the current wave. Some argue that the government has relied too heavily on Chinese-made vaccines, rather than Pfizers and Modernins, which they believe offer greater protection.

Globally, it might have been expected that covid-19 would have the effect of less unrest. Before the pandemic, large protest movements were on the rise all over the world. According to the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), a research center in Sydney, these movements have grown 2011 times between 2019 and 2,5. However, in crowds of angry people, shouting slogans and spraying each other with saliva, the virus is easily transmitted. Of course, in the first weeks of the pandemic, the number of protests around the world decreased in countries like India, Pakistan, Chile, Iraq and Nicaragua.

Corona crystallizes dissatisfaction

But that didn't last. Discontent has resurfaced in Colombia, South Africa and Myanmar, even as the epidemiological situation there is most severe. In Tunisia this week, amid violent mass demonstrations sparked by the government's mismanagement of the pandemic, the president dismissed the prime minister and suspended parliament.

The "Economist" cites IEP data, according to which civil unrest increased by 10% in 2020. The Institute recorded 5.000 cases of pandemic-related violence in 158 countries. Violent demonstrations are more common than at any time since 2008. The Project on Location and Armed Conflict Data (ACLED), an NGO specializing in conflict data collection, analysis and crisis mapping, claims that actions involving peaceful protests are on the rise. As of March 1, 2021, ACLED has recorded 51.549 demonstrations or riots. Considering only the countries from which data were processed for both years, a significant increase was registered.

In this case, it appears as if the pandemic is following the pattern set by earlier infectious disease outbreaks. In a paper published last year, Tahsin Sadi Sedik and Rui Xu of the IMF analyzed data from 133 countries between 2001 and 2018 and found that social unrest begins to increase 12-14 months after the start of an epidemic. Such was the epidemic of the mosquito-borne Zika virus, which peaked after two years. The covid-19 pandemic is incomparably more serious and long-lasting than those epidemics in almost every country. Such could be the health problems it causes.

One of the direct causes of the protests, IMF data suggest, is economic difficulties, the article "Ekonomista" points out. A good example is Cuba, where a vast network of secret police and informants usually spots and crushes dissidents before they cause trouble. Nevertheless, on July 11, thousands marched in more than 50 cities, chanting "Freedom!" and overturned several police cars, risking the wrath of the dictatorship. It was perhaps the largest display of anger against the Cuban government in six decades.

Cubans are angry because the shops are empty, they have nothing to eat, the electricity keeps going out and they are not allowed to remove the people in charge in the elections. Covid-19 has exacerbated these perennial grievances by destroying the Cuban economy. Tourists, the main source of hard currency, stopped coming. GDP decreased by 10,9% in 2020, and this year it further decreased.

Nothing to lose but groceries

Closing Cuba's borders to contain the virus severed ties with the capitalist world that had made life on the island more bearable. Everyday things like soap and coffee were usually brought by relatives who managed to go abroad or by smugglers who bought supplies in Panama, Mexico, Russia or Miami and revived them on the black market. Cutting off this supply chain has fueled inflation, lengthened lines outside stores, and reminded Cubans of how poorly the government is meeting their basic needs.

The collapse of tourism had strong effects on the health system. Without the dollars used by tourists to pay for hotel rooms and cocktails, the government is struggling to buy the ingredients needed to manufacture the drugs. Painkillers, antibiotics, insulin, asthma drugs and diagnostic tests have become rare, so people with easily treatable diseases are forced to suffer. Good medical care should be one of the pillars of the revolution. "Many people in Cuba used to be satisfied that they had that, even though they may never have been able to go on an extravagant vacation - at least they had the guarantee of good health care," commented a Cuban doctor for "Ekonomist".

The unrest exacerbated by the pandemic affects both rich and poor countries, but middle-income countries are the most vulnerable to both the disease and its social effects. Rich countries are protected by vaccines – even if some of their citizens are reluctant to immunize. In the poorest countries, the coronavirus is one of many challenges, the authorities are often too weak to enforce lockdown measures, and the young population offers a high degree of protection against covid-19.

In contrast, in middle-income countries, vaccination is uneven and quarantines are frequent. A large number of their residents are old enough and obese, which makes them particularly vulnerable to the virus. In addition, people in middle-income countries have expectations of their governments. However, these expectations are too often disappointed, as is the case in South Africa.

The first protests held there in July were organized by supporters of the justly imprisoned former president, Jacob Zuma, trying to secure his release. But one of the reasons they escalated into mass looting and burning of shops was that huge numbers of South Africans were poor, jobless and angry at the corruption and rotten government that kept them in that state. Covid-19 exposed all of that.

The burden is borne by the poor

Moreover, IMF analysis shows that when pandemics impose economic hardship, the burden falls most heavily on the poor. At a time when everyone should be in the same boat together, it is sickening when ordinary people see the privileged avoiding hardship and enjoying special treatment. It brings the angry to the streets.

When protests start to take place, more follow. Adversity is a factor, again. In a study published in May by Metodij Hadži-Vaskov, Samuel Pienknagura and Luka Antonio Rići, from the IMF, the index of social upheavals in 130 countries was analyzed. It was concluded that the unrest is accompanied by a drop in economic output of 0,2% after 18 months - and that the effect on developing markets is twice as great as in developed economies, according to "Ekonomist".

Moreover, the very act of protest can create a sense of solidarity.

For example, at the start of the pandemic in Brazil, supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro dominated the streets. Without masks and dressed in yellow and green, thousands of Bolsonaros gathered almost every 15 days to support the president's opposition to the lockdown measures introduced by the governors of certain areas. According to opinion polls, as of August 2020, 37% of Brazilians supported Bolsonaro, in part because his government paid out aid of 600 Brazilian reals (just under 100 euros) a month to a third of the population.

Today, that aid has been reduced, and a huge number of residents are calling for it to be revoked. In May, a Senate inquiry into the government's handling of the pandemic revealed that Bolsonaro rejected offers to buy vaccines last year and later ignored possible corruption. One in seven Brazilians is unemployed, and one in ten is on the brink of starvation. According to recent polls, less than 30% of Brazilians support the president, and a record 51% do not support his government.

Starting at the end of May, three times all the states in the country protested at once, uniting thousands of people in many cities. Bolsonaro's former allies have joined the marches, spurred on by the death toll from Covid-19, which currently stands at more than 550.000. "The glass is almost full," says Creomar de Souza from the Brazilian consulting firm "Dharma". "We will see what is the last straw that could cause the overflow."

It's not over until it's over

The pandemic is far from over. Kovaks, a global vaccine sharing initiative, aims to provide developing countries with enough doses to cover a fifth of their population by the end of 2021, but that target is unlikely to be met. Almost 4 billion doses of vaccines have been given so far. To achieve 70% coverage, the world must provide another 7 billion – or more, if additional doses are needed. That is unlikely before 2022.

Meanwhile, governments will try to control the disease with rules and regulations – including measures to suppress dissent. According to Freedom House, at least 158 ​​out of 192 countries have introduced new restrictions on public protests. Some governments have done this impartially and temporarily, to protect public health. Others used covid-19 as an excuse and shut down the opposition for allegedly violating social distancing rules, while allowing the ruling parties to hold large rallies.

In the long run, political repression is often a recipe for trouble. The pandemic suggests that people's anger doesn't go away while they're locked down. It boils like water in a pot, even while governments are doing everything to keep the lid on, "Ekonomist" points out. Gatherings of more than five people are prohibited in Thailand - officially to curb the spread of the virus. On July 18, the demonstrators were met with tear gas and rubber bullets. But that only makes them angrier. "We just want to get vaccinated," says one. "Kovid-19 is breathing down our necks, and the government is doing absolutely nothing".

“Sorry” is not enough

Colombia is an example of how a sense of injustice can override government efforts to help. One of the most unequal countries in the world, it spent longer in lockdown than most countries. GDP fell by 6,8% in 2020 and 2,8 million people fell into poverty. A decade of progress in eradicating poverty has simply been wiped away. But the trouble is unequally distributed. Youth unemployment from May to July last year was 30%, compared to overall unemployment of 20%, and 12% higher than a year earlier. In a place where half the economy is done off the books, informal workers had nothing to fall back on.

The government tried to improve the situation. A solidarity fund was introduced to help the poor survive during the quarantine, but many families could not make ends meet. In April of this year, she introduced a tax reform aimed at redistributing money to the poorest half of Colombians, partly by eliminating VAT exemptions that go to the rich and increasing net income taxes.

However, Colombians, who have struggled in the fight against the pandemic, assumed that the reform would burden them with additional taxes. Taking effect in April, just as the disease was on the rise and most cities were reimposing lockdown measures, the tax law brought people out onto the streets — especially jobless youth. For several days in May, protesters manned barricades, attacked police stations and looted shops in Cali, the country's third-largest city.

A combination of Zuma and covid

The lockdown in South Africa has been extremely difficult and many find the rules irritating.

The short-lived ban on open-toed sandals was confusing. Periodic bans on the sale of alcohol seemed unfair to many. Rich people with wine cellars continued to get drunk behind their high walls. But the poor were deprived of one life's pleasure, and if they indulged in it, the police harassed them. During the riots, liquor stores were among the first to be looted.

When we were hit by covid-19, everything stopped, says Patrik Dlamini, who repairs cars (which are driven less because of the curfew) and recycles bottles (which fewer people use because of the alcohol ban). He complains that he has no money and believes that the cause of the robberies is "a combination of Zuma and Covid".

Inequality has heightened tensions in South Africa. Pandemics reveal the gap between the haves and the have-nots.