The Wagner group of private military mercenaries operates from the shadows, and its existence and ownership are the subject of rumours, misinformation and denial. However, the group could soon achieve something that militants and rebels have failed to do for decades - to speed up the end of the French military intervention in Mali.
News reports from last Sunday indicated that Mali's transitional government - which took power in a coup last year - was on the verge of signing a contract with the Russian company to fight Islamic extremists. The news drew criticism from Paris, which said the arrival of the Wagner Group would be "incompatible" with decades of French support for the Malian government.
The position of France was supported by the German Minister of Defense Annegrat Kramp Karenbauer, which announced on Twitter that the engagement of that company would call into question everything that the United Nations and the European Union are doing in Mali. Germany is a major contributor to the EU training mission, while the UN force also includes British, Chinese and other multinational troops.
The spokesman for the leader of the junta in Mali said that he had no information about such an agreement. Malian officials told reporters that the government is in contact with "everyone" to quell the current insurgency, which includes elements of the Islamic State.
How close France and Germany are to withdrawing from Mali remains unclear, but the president is Emanuel Macron hinted at his desire to withdraw the French forces.
In June, Macron announced plans to scale back France's long-running counter-terrorism Operation Barkhane in Mali and merge it with other international efforts. At the time, France had over 5000 troops operating in Mali and the wider region, where it has been present in some way since colonial times, but Paris wants to share the burden with other European and African countries.
Paris and Berlin are now hinting that the arrival of the Wagner group would be the final straw. It is also possible that it serves as an excuse to withdraw support from the region where they want to reduce their commitments even at the cost of losing influence in favor of Moscow and Beijing.
While China is expanding its influence in Africa through investments in countries across the continent, Russian influence is more recent and focused. The Wagner Group took advantage of the instability and violence. Libya and the Central African Republic are the best examples, but there are reports that Russian military mercenaries are active in several locations in Mozambique, Madagascar and Sudan.
Reuters reported on the Wagner Group's involvement in Mali on September 13, and several diplomatic and security sources said a deal was close. Four sources told the British agency that Wagner's group would be paid six billion francs a month (9,1 million euros) for its services. No one from the Wagner Group wanted to comment on the allegations to Reuters.
To what extent this firm exists as a separate private enterprise remains unclear. "Forin Polisi" magazine announced earlier this year that the company Wagner Group does not legally exist and that the phrase is used for a network of companies that the Kremlin used for fighting in Ukraine in 2014 and expanding into Syria the following year.
Russian authorities deny that Wagner Group mercenaries are carrying out their orders.
Ownership of the group also remains a mystery. Several media platforms, including Reuters, are affiliated with the group Yevgeny Prigozhin, a businessman indicted in the United States for meddling in the 2016 presidential election and targeted by EU sanctions after being accused of violating the UN arms embargo on Libya. Prigozhin denies any connection with the Wagner group, and his public relations office says that he has no business interests in Africa.
Since last August's coup, condemned by the United States and France, Mali appears to be moving closer to Russia and further away from Paris and Washington.
After the coup, some foreign and Malian media pointed to the possible involvement of Russia, reporting that the new military leaders of Mali, Malik Diav i Sadio Kamara, spent a year at the military college in Moscow. Kamara, who is now the defense minister, paid an official visit to Russia earlier this month, Reuters reported.
It is unclear whether Russia can replace France as the main player in Mali. France wants to build international resistance to the use of the Wagner group, but on other fronts Paris and Berlin have long wished to balance the conflict with Russia through economic and other cooperation. This is clearly seen in the example of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which will transport natural gas from Russia to Europe via the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine. Although the United States opposed it, the construction of the gas pipeline is supported by Macron and the German chancellor Angela Merkel, as well as both of her possible successors.
Whatever the outcome of the events in Mali, Russia has once again demonstrated its effectiveness in using unconventional tactics and forces to grab a seat at the table when it wants to.
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