Last week, China's nationalist Global Times changed its rhetoric on Taiwan. The paper announced that it is now more a question of "when" Beijing's military offensive to capture the island will take place than "if it will happen."
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon has begun rotating a limited number of US Special Forces and Marines to Taiwan to train local forces, in an apparently deliberate message from US officials in response to Chinese rhetoric and military posturing.
Taiwan's Minister of Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng now warns that Beijing could be ready to launch a general invasion by 2025, describing current tensions as the worst in 40 years. China has been sending an increasing number of planes into Taiwan's airspace, including nearly 150 over last week's Chinese holiday weekend.
The fate of the island - which China considers a runaway province - is now the focus of China-US talks, and is seen as an indicator of the fate of the wider region. Other powers, such as Japan, Australia and Vietnam fear that if Taiwan falls into the hands of China, it could open the door for further moves by China in its pretensions throughout the region.
That's the narrative Beijing seems to be encouraging. Chinese President Xi Jinping promised last Saturday that he would complete the "historical task of unifying the homeland".
It is a somewhat softer tone than the one in June, when he promised to "stomp" all attempts to achieve direct independence. Beijing often claims that other countries are bound by its "one China" policy, viewing the government in Taipei - originally the Chinese Nationalist government in exile after the Communist victory in 1947 - as an illegal entity.
However, other rhetoric and actions have become much more aggressive. The Global Times, an English-language tabloid that carries the most aggressive voices in Beijing, carried several articles last week discussing the threat of conflict.
According to the newspaper, the presence of several dozen members of the American special forces and marines represents a kind of "invasion" on Chinese territory, and the editor of the newspaper Hu Sijin suggested that the US send soldiers in uniform to Taiwan so that Beijing would "kill" them with an airstrike.
United by force?
In another article, he argued that the presence of American troops gave China justification to pursue "forceful reunification." However, Washington hopes that the presence of a small number of troops acts as a deterrent for Beijing.
Over the past few decades, Beijing has been extremely effective in persuading the few remaining states that recognize Taiwan to withdraw those recognitions, while also pressuring airlines and multinational companies to list Taiwan as part of China. However, until two years ago, any kind of military action was considered relatively far-fetched.
That is changing now. After extending its reach to most of the South China Sea through the creation of artificial islands, Beijing's People's Liberation Army and its navy are conducting activities directed against Taiwan. These include training in the use of civilian ships and ground troops, which dramatically strengthens Beijing's amphibious capabilities and also provides the option of clandestine military landings.
Commercial satellite imagery also shows significant construction activity at three Chinese air bases near Taiwan. Construction work began in early 2020 and has continued throughout the pandemic, which is likely an indication of how important Beijing considers the work to be.
Strategic ambiguity
Washington has long pursued a policy of "strategic ambiguity" on Taiwan, leaving it unclear whether the United States would respond militarily in the event of a conflict. Analysts inside and outside the US government, as well as beyond, discuss what would actually happen, especially if US soldiers were injured or killed.
While Beijing would probably hope to end the conflict with lightning speed, Taiwan wants to make it difficult, increasing its defense budget and investing in anti-aircraft and naval missiles. However, the real question is whether the US would then decide to launch a military intervention - or whether Beijing would decide to strike US forces in the region in a concerted attack.
At a time when the US-China rivalry increasingly dominates the thinking in Washington and beyond, America's Asian and other allies are likely to want to impose a real price on China for an eventual attack on Taiwan, whether in the form of financial sanctions or overt or covert military activity. However, it is difficult to assess what that might look like.
Any conflict would further disrupt already strained global supply chains and dramatically shake up the semiconductor industry in which Taiwan is a major producer.
While the military mood in Washington and Beijing is already turning towards potential war, rising tensions over Taiwan have already reached a level of urgency. There are growing calls within the US for the Pentagon to prioritize Asia over Europe, potentially withdrawing forces currently facing Russia and relying on European allies to fill the gap. Some fear that Russia could launch a conventional or unconventional attack on Europe at the same time as China attacks Taiwan, which would split US forces on two fronts.
If Beijing intends to live up to its rhetoric, the Taiwan conflict would define a decade. If there is a wider escalation, then it could define a century.
Translated by: Nada Bogetić
Bonus video:
