As countries around the world imposed new Covid-19 restrictions this week amid fears of a new micron strain of the virus, China said it would ship an extra billion vaccines to Africa and press ahead with plans to host the Winter Olympics in February 2022.
It's a reminder that Beijing wants to demonstrate self-confidence to the world: an economic powerhouse that has reined in the pandemic at home and is leading the response abroad, undeterred by international criticism it sees as hypocritical.
The reality is more complex. Although the number of cases at home remains low, China is trying to cope with the limited effectiveness of its vaccines and is desperate to avoid a surge in domestic cases that some Chinese scientists say would be catastrophic. Abroad, Beijing is facing increasingly troubled relations with the West and a number of other countries, as well as criticism over human rights and growing pressure over Taiwan.
Back in 2019, human rights activists and some Western leaders called for an outright boycott of the Games because of China's treatment of the Muslim Uyghur minority. It never seemed like that invitation could be extended to participants - a lot of money, energy and effort went into the Games, including investment from sponsors. Beijing rejects all accusations of mistreatment of Uyghurs.
However, several countries - including the United States, Britain and Australia - are reportedly considering a diplomatic boycott. In July, the European Parliament passed a non-binding resolution encouraging European countries to do the same. It is still possible that even diplomats in Beijing avoid Olympic events - but the reduced presence of foreigners would now be less noticeable.
The Games will be strictly controlled even by the standards of the Summer Olympics held earlier this year. There will be no foreign fans, with the exception of the Russian president Vladimir Putin - none of the foreign leaders and officials will be there.
A tennis player
It could end up being a relief for the Chinese president Xi Jinping shines. One of the most popular Chinese sports figures, a 35-year-old tennis player Peng Shuai, is the subject of international speculation after she practically disappeared from the public eye after she accused the former deputy prime minister of sexually assaulting her on social media on November 2.
On Tuesday, the European Union demanded "valid proof" that she is alive, well and free. Peng is another in a series of well-known Chinese figures who have disappeared from public view for a period of time, and some human rights experts believe that her contact with the outside world, including a conversation with Olympic officials on November 21 in which she assured them that she was fine , controlled.
Although some European countries, especially Hungary and Serbia, have come closer to Beijing, other countries are extremely hostile. Lawmakers from the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia visited Taiwan this week, while even countries like Germany, which want to preserve trade, have restricted other ties. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that "certain people" should stop "maliciously exaggerating" and "politicizing" the Peng issue.
For a long time, China has operated under a model that allows it, thanks to its economic and industrial influence, to deflect criticism when it comes to human rights.
Beijing hopes Xi's announcement to send vaccines and medical workers to Africa will allow China to deepen its influence on the continent.
Xi pledged that Beijing would donate an additional 600 million doses and produce an additional 400 billion through commercial deals including with African producers.
South African authorities are particularly angry about the international travel bans, claiming they are being punished for being outspoken about the omicron, which was first identified on November 8 in South Africa and has since spread to dozens of countries. Chinese state media and diplomats have picked up on that rhetoric, arguing that the new strain has emerged in Africa in part because wealthy Western countries are stockpiling their vaccines.
The Covid-19 challenge
There may be some truth in that. However, Beijing faces a growing problem when it comes to maintaining its position as a major player in vaccine diplomacy. International demand for Chinese vaccines - which are 50-80 percent effective in preventing covid-19 - is significantly lower than for Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines.
This poses a challenge for the sale of Chinese vaccines abroad, as some countries openly prioritize Western-made vaccines.
On the domestic front, this may represent a greater challenge for China. After Beijing's initial success in limiting the pandemic mainly to Wuhan, where the first cases were reported, a small portion of the Chinese population was naturally exposed to the virus.
The limited protection offered by Chinese vaccines increases the likelihood that a new outbreak would spread rapidly.
Researchers from Peking University published an article in the journal China Centers for Disease Control in which they warn that because of population density, limited medical resources and the questionable effectiveness of vaccination programs, allowing a controlled spread of Covid-19 like that seen in Western countries would be catastrophic.
For the Olympics, this means strict controls and isolation so athletes can compete without mass quarantine. For everyone else, it means the borders remain closed. For China, this means that the pandemic and complex geopolitics are far from over.
Translated by: N. Bogetić
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