At the beginning of a new calendar year, the world is faced with a series of challenges starting from the pandemic, climate change, the struggle between democracy and autocracy, humanitarian crises and mass migration.
There is a risk of the outbreak of new wars, which is enhanced by the collapse of the rules-based international order and the spread of deadly autonomous weapons, according to Simon Tisdall, a columnist and one of the editors of the British "Guardian". He points out that for most people on Earth, but for a few in space, 2022 will be another year of dangerous life.
Near East
Events in the Middle East will fill the headlines again, writes Tisdal, adding that in the next 12 months there will be both positive and negative reasons for this. The reason for optimism is the World Cup in football, which starts in November with Qatar. It is the first time that an Arab and Muslim country has hosted the tournament. However, Qatar's election, shadowed by accusations of corruption, has been controversial from the start.
In addition to football, the regional agenda there will be dominated by more common topics, among which is primarily the question of whether Israel and the US will take new military or economic steps to suppress Iran's attempts to obtain nuclear weapons.
Israel has been threatening airstrikes for some time if the slow negotiations to revive the 2015 nuclear deal fail, and even football fans can't ignore the war in the Gulf, the British journalist points out.
Attention will also be focused on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose neo-Islamist AKP will mark 20 years in power this year. Erdogan's rule at home is becoming increasingly repressive, while his aggressive foreign policy, disputes with the EU and the US, as well as occasional friction with Russia over Syria and chronic economic mismanagement can have unpredictable consequences.
Other potential flashpoints are Lebanon - which is on the verge of becoming a failed state like war-torn Yemen, as well as the perennially chaotic Libya. Palestine should not be lost sight of either, where postponing elections by unpopular President Mahmoud Abbas, Israeli settler violence and land grabbing in the West Bank, as well as the lack of active peace efforts, create conditions for a perfect storm.
Asia
At the beginning of the year, all eyes are on China and this will probably be the case in the coming period as well, Tisdal points out and adds that one of the most important events will be the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which is held at the end of the year. Namely, at that Congress, President Xi Jinping should provide himself with a third five-year term, which, if he succeeds, would confirm his position as the most powerful leader of China after Mao Zedong.
Tisdal points out that Western analysts disagree on how secure Xi's position truly is, as a slowing economy, a debt crisis, an aging population, major environmental challenges, and US efforts to contain China all put pressure on Xi. However, the author points out that it is quite likely that China will continue to protect global economic and geopolitical influence in 2022. A military attack on Taiwan, which Xi has said he will retake by any means, could change everything.
On the other hand, the population of India, China's biggest regional competitor, could soon surpass China's of 1,41 billion according to some estimates.
Elsewhere in Asia, the violent repression in Myanmar and the desperation of the Afghan people after the Taliban seized power in that country are likely to cause more nervousness in the West than concrete actions. Afghanistan is on the brink of disaster. "We are watching 23 million people go hungry," said David Beasley from the World Food Program about that country. "The next six months will be catastrophic."
Europe
Tisdal believes that this will be a crucial year for Europe, as European state leaders are faced with internal and external divisions, the social and economic impact of the pandemic with no end in sight, migration and new challenges in terms of achieving zero emissions.
What is more important is that Europe must decide whether it wants to be taken seriously as a global player, or whether it will surrender to the international influence of China, the US or Russia.
The tone could be set by elections in France and Hungary in the spring, where right-wing populist forces are once again pushing divisive agendas. Viktor Orbán, who practically mocks the EU regarding the rule of law, democracy and freedom of speech, will face a united opposition for the first time. His fate will be closely watched in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and other EU countries where right-wing parties flourish.
Emmanuel Macron, a centrist who appeared practically out of nowhere in 2017, will ask French voters to give him a second term and choose him instead of racist Islamophobic rivals in the form of Marine Le Pen and Erik Zemur.
According to the polls, Macron is ahead, but he could face a strong challenge from the center-right Republicans, whose candidate Valerie Pekres is the first female leader of the conservatives. With the left in shambles, the election could radicalize France in reactionary ways.
In an indication of the pressure Macron is under, his government yesterday removed the EU flag from the Arc de Triomphe in Paris, bowing to criticism from conservative and right-wing opponents who argued that by replacing the French flag to mark the start of France's presidency of the bloc, Macron had "erased" French identity. . "Presidency in Europe yes, erasure of French identity no," Pekres announced on Twitter in one of the calls for the authorities to return the French flag.
Elections are being held next year in Sweden, Serbia and Austria.
In Germany, despite the conciliatory promises of the new coalition government led by the SPD, they will hardly be able to avoid friction with the European Commission, headed by Ursula von der Leyen, a longtime ally of Angela Merkel, as well as with France and other southern European members over budget policy. and long.
Macron's conviction that Europe must stand up for itself in a hostile world will be put to the test on a number of fronts, most notably Ukraine, on whose border Russia is building up its forces.
Among other triggers are Belarus' use of migration as a weapon, as well as the absence of a humane pan-European migration policy and growing separatism in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Tisdall predicts a difficult year for NATO, which, with damaged credibility after the collapse in Afghanistan, is looking for a new secretary general. That position could be given to a woman for the first time, and former British Prime Minister Theresa May was mentioned among the candidates. Although, the French will hardly agree that this function belongs to the British.
South America
The battle to defeat Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil's right-wing president, in national elections in October could turn into an epic battle with international ramifications. Inside Brazil, Bolsonaro is being criticized for his handling of the pandemic.
Polls show that if he were to run, Luis Iñasio Lula da Silva, the former president who was arrested and imprisoned and then acquitted of corruption charges, would easily defeat Bolsonaro. However, a journalist from a British newspaper points out that there are growing fears that supporters of former US President Donald Trump are teaching Bolsonaro's camp how to steal the election or launch a coup to change the result.
Although research shows that support for right-wing nationalist police is waning in Europe, with the exception of Brazil, this is not the case in South America and other parts of the developing world.
Populism feeds the gap between the corrupt "elite" and the so-called "ordinary people" and in many poorer countries, that gap, measured by wealth and power, is growing.
North America
In the United States, all eyes will be on November's midterm elections when Democrats will try to fend off Republican attempts to take control of the Senate and House of Representatives. The result will be considered a referendum on Joe Biden's tenure. If the Republicans do well in key states, Donald Trump - who still falsely claims to have won the 2020 election - will almost certainly run for a second term in 2024.
The outcome of the election will be influenced by the course of the pandemic in the US, the economy, events related to topics such as migration, race and abortion rights.
The biggest problem for American Democrats in 2022 could be internal party divisions. The division between so-called progressives and moderates, especially in the Senate, undermined Biden's social and infrastructure proposals, which had to be tempered. Part of the focus will be on Biden personally in the sense of whether he will run again in 2024, on his age (he turns 80 in November), mental readiness and ability to fulfill the agenda. A seven percent drop in popularity in mid-December will be difficult to recover.
Kamala Harris, the vice president, who is rumored to have not handled the position well, will be under the microscope, even if that is what those who want to destabilize the White House say. Pete Buttigieg, the transportation secretary who sought the Democratic nomination in 2020, is the man to watch as a replacement for Harris or even Biden, should the president decide that one term is enough for him.
Africa
As befits this vast continent, some of the biggest themes of 2022 will play out in Africa. Among the biggest questions is whether Africans, still largely unvaccinated, will pay the huge price of vaccine monopolization by the developed world.
The next question, the "Guardian" journalist points out, is whether such selfishness will backfire on the rich world.
The course of the global pandemic in 2022 – in terms of threats to health and global prosperity – is unknown. However, in many African countries, with a relatively young population that is less vulnerable to the severe effects of covid-19, a bigger problem could be the negative impact on the management of other diseases.
An estimated 25 million people in Africa will be living with HIV in 2022. Malaria claims nearly 400 lives each year. The treatment of these diseases and others, such as tuberculosis and diabetes, may be further aggravated as a result of the burden that covid represents on health systems.
Also, many analysts believe that Africa has replaced the Middle East in terms of fertile ground for international terrorism. That trend is likely to continue in 2022.
The UN's International Organization for Migration said a record 281 million people, or 3,6 percent of the global population, were classified as international migrants in 2020. That figure is rising despite pandemic restrictions on cross-border movement.
These incredible population movements have yet to lead to coordinated and even rational responses from most governments, especially those in wealthy North America and Europe. That may change in 2022, but Tisdal concludes that he wouldn't count on it.
"Planetary Defense" or a step backwards for humanity
It is unrealistic to expect rapid changes in global warming forecasts this year. Extreme weather events such as those recorded during 2021 - fires, droughts, floods, storms and record temperatures - will almost certainly happen again. As before, the consequences will be particularly visible in the most sensitive environments in the world, in Antarctica and the Arctic.
In both polar regions, increased human activity will be recorded - which is not exactly the happiest of developments. In Antarctica, for example, mass tourism is starting with ice runways intended for airplanes. However, Tisdal believes that the bigger problem is the interest of countries, including China, in Antarctic resources, as well as in the deployment of military forces.
Also, the melting of the Arctic ice has opened up commercial and military sea routes to the top of the world, which Russia is currently developing in a heated race with several other countries. Long-neglected Greenland is the new El Dorado for mineral and mining companies and is attracting increasing interest from defense planners - something the local population is trying to counter.
This will also be an interesting year in terms of space research and military competition. Nasa is preparing 18 separate missions in 2022.
Russia, South Korea, India and Japan will launch a spacecraft to the moon. The European Space Agency plans to send a mission to Mars. China hopes to have a fully functional space station in orbit by the end of the year.
The nuclear arms race in space is also expected to accelerate. The US, Russia and China are experimenting with new weapons, such as hypersonic craft that can launch nuclear missiles from anywhere in the sky. At the end of 2021, Russia was angered by the launch of an anti-satellite missile. Others will follow suit, which could threaten global communication.
In September, Nasa plans to derail a giant asteroid using a spacecraft that will launch from a rocket built by Elon Musk's SpaceX.
The US calls it “planetary defense,” but the technology generally has offensive applications. Some will see it as progress and others as a huge step backwards for humanity.
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