From stability to chaos

The country's vast natural resources have made a small elite incredibly wealthy, while many ordinary Kazakhs have felt neglected

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Detention of protesters in Almaty on Wednesday, Photo: Beta/AP
Detention of protesters in Almaty on Wednesday, Photo: Beta/AP
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

Kazakhstan has long been considered a bastion of stability in restive Central Asia. It is located between Russia and China and also shares borders with three long former Soviet republics. It is the largest economy in Central Asia, with rich deposits of hydrocarbons and metals.

It has attracted hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign investment since gaining independence in 1991. Strategically, it connects the large and fast-growing markets of China and South Asia with Russia and Europe - by road, rail and a port in the Caspian Sea. It has been described as a linchpin in China's huge Belt and Road trade project, Reuters reports in an account of Kazakhstan's economic and political system.

Kazakhstan
photo: Graphic News

Kazakhstan is the world's largest producer of uranium and this week's unrest caused an eight percent jump in the price of the metal used by nuclear power plants. It is the ninth largest exporter of oil in the world, with production of around 85,7 million tons in 2021, and the tenth largest producer of coal. It is also the world's second largest bitcoin miner after the United States.

The rebellion started due to the lifting of restrictions on the growth of butane and propane prices, but discontent has long been simmering due to endemic corruption, income inequality and economic hardships that have all been further exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic.

Although it is the richest of the Central Asian republics in terms of per capita income, half of the population of Kazakhstan - the ninth largest country in the world - lives in rural, often isolated communities with poor access to public services.

The country's vast natural resources made a small elite incredibly wealthy, while many ordinary Kazakhs felt left out. It is estimated that about one million of the total population of 19 million live below the poverty line.

Annual inflation hovers around nine percent and is the highest in the last five years, which prompted the central bank to increase interest rates to 9,75 percent.

Career diplomat Kasim-Zhomart Tokaev (68) was elected in 2019 based on his promise to continue Nursultan Nazarbayev's pro-business policy. However, Nazarbayev, a former member of the Soviet Politburo, is widely believed to be the one pulling the strings in the state.

In 2010, Nazarbayev was given the title of "leader of the nation" after parliament granted him immunity from prosecution and the right to shape policy even after he retires. Critics have long accused him of appointing family members and allies to key positions in government and industry and stifling media freedom.

Tokayev used the protests to oust the 81-year-old former president as head of the powerful Security Council.

Nazarbayev has not advertised or appeared in public since the protests broke out, and it is unclear to what extent the uprising will weaken the influence he and his family have continued to wield in politics and business.

Tokayev also removed Nazarbayev's nephew Samat Abish from the number two position in the Committee, the successor to the Soviet-era KGB. Nazarbayev's eldest daughter, Dariga, a former president of the Senate who is still an MP, was previously mentioned as a possible future head of state.

Kazakhstan's gross domestic product per capita was $9.122 in 2020, according to World Bank data, slightly above that of Turkey and Mexico, but below its annual peak of nearly $14.000 in 2013.

Tokayev's government introduced a stimulus package worth six percent of national production to help small and medium-sized enterprises overcome the covid-19 pandemic.

The World Bank predicted economic growth of 3,5 percent in 2021, rising to 3,7 percent this year and 4,8 percent in 2023. It called on Kazakhstan to increase competition and limit the role of large state-owned enterprises in the economy, to address social inequality and create a more level playing field for economic competition.

For years, the government has relentlessly persecuted peaceful dissidents, driving the people of Kazakhstan into a state of anxiety and despair.

Western countries and human rights groups have long criticized Kazakhstan for its authoritarian political system, intolerance of dissent, restrictions on media freedoms and a lack of free and fair elections, although it is also seen as less repressive and unstable than its former Soviet neighbors. Elections that international observers have assessed as free have never been held in Kazakhstan.

Amnesty International said this week's protests were the result of a "widespread suppression of basic human rights" and called for the release of all those arbitrarily detained and for an investigation into past abuses by the authorities.

"The government has relentlessly persecuted peaceful dissidents for years, driving the people of Kazakhstan into a state of anxiety and despair," said Marie Strathers, Amnesty's Eastern Europe and Central Asia Director.

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