As Russia faces Western ire over its invasion of Ukraine, Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad was quietly readmitted to the club of Middle Eastern leaders last Sunday in the United Arab Emirates. It is his first visit abroad in the past ten years of war in that country, if we exclude trips to the countries of key allies, Russia and Iran.
While the world's attention is focused on Eastern Europe, the geopolitics of the Middle East is changing from several directions. Key players have embraced new ambitions and alliances in the face of what is seen as a weakening United States, the rise of China and Russia building relationships there as other states turn their backs.
The result is a complex web of events that include Turkey and Israel emerging as potential arbitrators in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey moving ever deeper into the African conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region, and an increasingly public rapprochement between Israel and the Gulf states.
It also includes the complex energy policy that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with Saudi Arabia resisting Western calls to produce more oil and Qatar emerging as the potential savior of Europe, which is desperate for alternatives to Russian gas, and there are, as always, the extremely complicated relations between Iran and its potential rivals.
In the era of the attacks on the US on September 11, 2001 or the "Arab Spring" of 2011, each of these events could grab the headlines or attract attention in Washington, Whitehall and Europe. However, after the pandemic, this region was considered a lower priority, although the US and its allies remain involved in several conflicts there.
In February, a U.S. special forces strike in Syria killed Islamic State leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Quraishi, a reminder that the 9/11-era "war on terror" is still ongoing. However, more broadly, the rest of the region has developed other priorities, with numerous states pursuing increasingly independent foreign policies.
This is a trend that has been quietly growing since after the "Arab Spring" several Gulf states and Turkey became embroiled in wars in Libya and Syria, sometimes against each other and against Russian intermediaries. Turkey and the UAE have now both become embroiled in Ethiopia's war against Tigray forces, the UAE operating Chinese-made drones as they draw diplomatically closer to Beijing and Moscow, even as the country remains home to a US airbase.
Disappointed United States
The Biden administration announced that it was "disturbed" and "deeply disappointed" by the welcome that the UAE gave to Assad in Abu Dhabi, and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that Washington opposed all efforts to "rehabilitate" the Syrian leader since 250 people have died in the Syrian war in the last ten years.
However, like Saudi Arabia after the Western outrage that followed the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the Arab states seem less and less inclined to take such Western criticism seriously - and have activated themselves to visibly improve relations with both Moscow and Beijing.
Neither the UAE nor Saudi Arabia have done anything about the West's call to impose sanctions on Russia, nor has NATO member Turkey or longtime US ally Israel.
Both countries have complex relations with both Russia and Ukraine, posing as potential "peacemakers" even as Ankara arms Ukraine with drones and Israel maintains an uneasy dialogue with Moscow, whose consent it relies on to attack Iranian targets in the Russian-controlled part of Syria.
The regional conflict with Iran is another highly complex driver of Middle East dynamics, with Tehran-backed Houthi militants fighting Saudi and UAE forces in Yemen, a war in which Houthi missiles and drones have repeatedly hit both countries.
Regional confrontation with Iran
Iranian militias remain an actor inside Iraq, where US forces have now shifted to a non-combat role, but where US officials say Iran still wants to force Washington to withdraw completely. Earlier this month, dozens of missiles that Iraqi and US officials say were fired from Iran hit targets near the US consulate in the northern Kurdish city of Irbil, also reportedly near a former secret Israeli training center.
Some sources described that attack as a possible response to Israeli attacks inside Syria, but also as retaliation against the US that was supposed to coincide with the birthday of Iranian Revolutionary Guard General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone attack on Baghdad International Airport in January 2020.
That assassination — ordered by then-President Donald Trump — sparked several actions believed to be behind Iran, including missile attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria in 2020 and 2021. Iran is also believed to be behind last year's assassination attempt on Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Qadimi as part of Tehran's long-standing efforts to deepen its influence in the country.
That was not enough to prevent the Biden administration from continuing efforts to restore the 2015 Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran - but talks in Vienna could collapse this month after Russia demanded that any business with Iran under the deal be exempt from international sanctions.
It is unclear what kind of deal is possible now - officials from Iran and Russia are discussing trade, and Western officials worry that a Russian arms deal could be tied to those efforts so Moscow can use Iran to circumvent sanctions.
It remains unclear how much Russia's new exile status will change the regional confrontation between Iran and its various enemies. However, the Middle East is changing, and that may mean it plays by quite different rules.
Translated and edited by: N. Bogetić
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