When the leaders of the world's two largest democracies held a virtual meeting on April 11, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed with US President Joe Biden that democracies can deliver. But when it comes to the war in Ukraine, it is not clear what results democracy should deliver. Both expressed concern over the plight of Ukrainian civilians. While Biden left no doubt who he blames for their suffering, Modi sounded less certain. Instead of pointing the finger at Russia, he called for an "independent investigation" into the horrors being reported from the Ukrainian town of Buch.
India is perhaps the most inconvenient of those regularly held back in the West's campaign to punish Russian President Vladimir Putin for invading Ukraine. But she is far from alone. In Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, even America's longtime allies and clients are rejecting its pleas to impose sanctions on Russia or merely criticize it.
Few countries have been more brazen than Pakistan, which, under the leadership of now-former Prime Minister Imran Khan, signed a trade deal with Russia shortly after the United Nations voted on March 2 to condemn the invasion and demand that Russia withdraw. But many refrain from openly criticizing or punishing Russia, due to commercial motives, ideological commitments, strategic ambitions or simply out of fear. Turkey, for example, has economic reasons to stay away - it buys 45 percent of its gas from Russia - but it also has citizens threatened by war. On March 13, the Turkish Foreign Minister announced that he is negotiating with Russia to evacuate dozens of Turkish citizens from the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, which was reduced to rubble by Russian bombs. A month later, many are still trapped.
Many refrain from openly criticizing or punishing Russia due to commercial motives, ideological commitments, strategic ambitions or simply out of fear.
India has a number of reasons to avoid antagonizing Russia: a tradition of neutrality in a global conflict, the strategic priority of confronting China, dependence on Russian military equipment. As an additional incentive, democracy itself could advocate a neutral approach: "poking the bear" by rejecting America or Britain goes down well with the domestic public.
It is difficult to assess the extent to which countries resisting Russia's isolation could undermine the sanctions regime organized by the West. But viewed as a bloc, the 40 countries that opposed or abstained from the UN resolution condemning the invasion are likely to matter more geopolitically than economically. Together, they make up a quarter of world GDP and 20 percent of exports. However, they are not of great importance for the Russian economy. Their average GDP per person is about a third of the world average, which means they may not have demand for much more than the current quarter of Russian exports. They also lack the capacity to provide the more sophisticated goods and services that Russia used to buy from the West.
India has a number of reasons to avoid antagonizing Russia: tradition of neutrality in global conflict, strategic priority of countering China, dependence on Russian military equipment
Russia was seemingly alone at the UN for several weeks. The invasion struck so hard at the foundations of that organization - "the principle of sovereign equality of all its members", as the charter says - that nations came together to support not only the first resolution, but also the second, which criticizes Russia for endangering civilians. The first passed with the support of 141 of the 193 member countries, and the second with the support of 140 of them. Last Sunday, UN members went beyond mere incitement and expelled Russia from the Human Rights Council. It was only the second time that a country was expelled (after Libya in 2011) and the first time for a member of the Security Council. Russia, which warned before the vote that even abstention would be considered an act of hostility, subsequently announced it was leaving the Council. "You don't resign after being fired, Ukrainian ambassador Serhiy Kislitsya retorted.
However, the difference in the vote was much smaller: 93 to 24, with 58 abstentions. Support for Ukraine in a large part of the world is weak, diplomats warn, as well as the patience of the abstainers, which could turn into opposition. The pattern of restraint speaks in part to concerns that sanctions against Russia are driving up food and energy prices. One European diplomat, summarizing their position, said: "When two elephants fight, little people get killed." He continues:
One also hears the complaint that the West is obsessed with a European conflict that is not a genuine global concern, while downplaying or ignoring conflicts and human rights violations in other parts of the world. For these critics, self-righteous inconsistency on matters of international law is the specter of great powers.
The unity of the southern states
The reluctance of rich countries in recent years to invest in climate change mitigation and the slow and uneven distribution of Covid-19 vaccines have already revived the Non-Aligned Movement, an organization of states that propagated neutrality during the Cold War. "In the last few years, there has been a noticeable trend in the UN that many countries from the Global South are increasingly coordinated in expressing criticism of the West," says Richard Gowen of the International Crisis Group (ICG). Those countries, he added, "have a stronger sense of unity and common purpose than was the case for most of the post-Cold War era."
Especially across the Middle East, and in Turkey, Western concerns about Ukraine's sovereignty are seen as self-serving and hypocritical, in part because of the US war in Iraq and the 2011 bombing of Libya that ousted its dictator Muammar Gaddafi. Europe's warm welcome to Ukrainian refugees, compared to Syria's, is infuriating. This type of concern has long been present among Arab states.
Support for Ukraine in much of the world is weak, as is the patience of the abstentions, which could turn into opposition
Some diplomats were stunned when Iraq's ambassador to the UN abstained from a resolution condemning the invasion, citing his country's "historical background", an apparent jab at the US invasion. Even Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), although they have weak ties with Russia, have estimated that they would do more harm than good to side with the West. They do not want to antagonize a key partner that has cooperated with OPEC in raising oil prices. Moreover, they see a chance to send a signal. They want more help from America to deal with problems in their own backyard, such as rockets and drones from Yemen and Iranian-backed militias wreaking havoc from Beirut to Baghdad. In the Middle East, only Israel and Libya voted to expel Russia from the Human Rights Council. The reticence of the Gulf states was a particular disappointment for Western diplomats.
Russian propaganda in the region is fueling resentment towards the West. Russian state media, such as the Arabic service of the RT network or the Turkish edition of Sputnik, are popular, and its Ministry of Foreign Affairs has a cadre of diplomats who, unlike their Western counterparts, speak Arabic fluently. "Every time I turn on the television, some Russian is justifying the war," says a Western ambassador to Jordan. While the major Arab channels, which have reporters on the ground in Ukraine, do not shy away from talking about the horrors of the war, their coverage is often laced with pro-Russian or anti-Western views. Last month, Sky News Arabia, based in the UAE, aired a segment about how "duplicitous" Western countries are trying to "demonize" Putin.
Red carpet for US opponents
With the exception of Russian companions such as Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, Latin American countries supported the first two UN resolutions condemning Russia for the war. But several, including Brazil and Mexico, have opposed Russia's expulsion from the Human Rights Council, and there is little appetite in the region to join the sanctions regime. Signaling that they are independent of the West is an old game in Latin America, where some countries seek to balance American power in the Western Hemisphere by rolling out the red carpet for US adversaries. Argentine President Alberto Fernandez endorsed this strategy in early February when he met with Putin in Moscow as Russian forces prepared to invade Ukraine. Speaking about the International Monetary Fund, Fernandez told him: "Argentina must stop being so dependent on the Fund and the US, it must open the way to other countries, and Russia has a very important place there."
Since the beginning of the invasion, Russia has tried to encourage that attitude. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at the end of March that certain countries "would never accept a global village under the command of an American sheriff." Citing Argentina, Brazil and Mexico among others, he added: "These countries don't want to be in a position where Uncle Sam orders them to do something and they nod. On April 5, Russia added Argentina to a list of 52 "friendly countries." with which they will resume direct flights However, Argentina, the current president of the Human Rights Council, voted to expel Russia.
Brazilian strongman Jair Bolsonaro does not hide his admiration for Putin and his "masculine qualities". Bolsonaro also visited Moscow in February and hailed the relationship between the two countries as "more than a perfect marriage". It is a marriage fertilized, apparently, with fertilizer. Although Brazil joined in condemning the invasion, Bolsonaro has since said that he cannot cut ties with Russia because of the "sacred" importance of imported fertilizer for Brazil, more than a fifth of which comes from Russia. Bolsonaro now says that Brazil will remain neutral in the conflict, which is in line with the view of his political opponents and, according to polls, the public. Similarly, Mexico, despite condemning the invasion, has a long-standing policy of non-intervention and a habit of dismissing events far beyond its borders. In addition, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador shows little concern for democracy and is also careful to please his leftist party, elements of which formed a friendship group with Russia after the invasion.
The biggest support from Africa
Russia found the greatest sympathy in Africa. Almost half of African countries - 25 out of 54 - abstained or avoided the first UN vote. A history of colonialism makes some reluctant to support what is seen as a Western cause. But others are reacting out of a growing affinity for Russia. This is the case with the Republic of South Africa, another major democracy that rejects the West's call for unity. She abstained from all UN votes.
Many southern African countries see Russia as the successor to the Soviet Union, which armed and trained guerrilla armies that fought against colonial powers and segregationist regimes. Such nostalgia partly explains South Africa's turn toward Russia during Jacob Zuma's presidency, from 2009 to 2018. But South Africa's relations with the West have also been strained by the bombing of Libya. In 2015, the leading figures of the African National Congress (ANC) published a foreign policy document in which they complain about the collapse of the USSR because it "completely changed the balance of power in favor of imperialism", i.e. America and the West.
Zuma's departure from office - he is now on trial for corruption - has not cooled the ANC's fervor for Russia. President Cyril Ramaphosa is making the Kremlin's case, arguing that NATO is responsible for the conflict over eastward expansion. He also criticized Western sanctions against Russia. One of the reasons may be material. Although overall trade between the countries is weak, Russia is South Africa's second largest market for apples and pears and fourth for citrus fruits. Even as Russian-flagged ships were turned away from European and American ports, the freighter "Vasily Golovnin" docked in Cape Town on April 4. South Africa is also reportedly working on a $XNUMX billion deal to buy gas from Russia's Gazprom.
Elsewhere in Africa, support for Russia reflects its success in expanding its influence by selling arms or sending mercenaries. Russian mercenaries were seen in five of the 17 African countries that abstained in the first UN vote: the Central African Republic, Madagascar, Mali, Mozambique and Sudan. Many more who abstained or did not show up are buyers of Russian weapons. They include Algeria, Angola, Sudan and Uganda, according to data compiled by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Eritrea, a gulag state, was among the five countries in the world that sided with Russia on March 2.
Pakistan is surprisingly conciliatory towards the West
As the conflict continues, the West will increasingly be faced with the question of how aggressively it should use leverage to encourage neutrals to move. Some countries may be encouraged to see an opportunity to improve relations with the West. This could be the case with Pakistan, especially now that Khan has been ousted by a vote of no confidence. Trade with Russia is insignificant for Pakistan, and its armed forces show discomfort with a deep and growing dependence on China.
General Qamar Bajwa, the Chief of the General Staff, has been sounding surprisingly conciliatory towards the West lately. In a speech on April 2, he urged China to resolve its border problems with India, and then said that Russia's "aggression" against Ukraine cannot be tolerated and that it "must be stopped immediately." He also stated that the war showed how a smaller country could defend itself with stronger morale and clever use of simple technology, an allusion to Pakistan's struggle with India.
The West has an even greater influence on India. Russia, with a GDP slightly more than half that of India's, accounts for barely one percent of India's trade. Trade with the West is of much greater importance, as are India's connections with America through people-to-people exchanges. Under a law that authorizes sanctions against countries that make "significant transactions" with Russia, America imposed sanctions on China in 2018 and Turkey in 2020 for the purchase of the S-400 missile system. India has bought the same system, but the Biden administration has so far avoided asking whether it will apply the same standard. Meanwhile, India is not only refraining from criticizing Russia, but increasing its purchases of Russian oil.
Biden's strategy is clearly to ingratiate himself with India rather than pressure it, an approach that does not seem to have borne fruit so far. Asked by reporters why India is not working to reduce its dependence on Russia, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar sarcastically thanked them for the "advice and suggestions" and then retorted: "Trust me, we know what is in our interest and how to protect it and improve".
Prepared by: A. Šofranac
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