An economic storm is ahead

Four interconnected crises: inflation, energy, food and climate crisis can have unfathomable consequences

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Robert Habek, Photo: Reuters
Robert Habek, Photo: Reuters
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

Multiple threats to the global economy are at the top of the agenda at the annual forum in Davos, and some officials have warned of the real risk of a global recession.

Political and business leaders gathered at the World Economic Forum at a time when inflation is at its highest level in a generation in major economies including the United States, Britain and Europe.

Rising prices undermined consumer confidence and shook global financial markets, prompting central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, to raise interest rates.

Meanwhile, the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on oil and food markets, and the covid-19 lockdown in China have further exacerbated the situation.

"We have at least four crises, which intertwine with each other. We have high inflation... we have an energy cycle... we have a food crisis and we have a climate crisis. We cannot solve these problems if we focus only on one of these crises," said Deputy German Chancellor Robert Habek.

"However, if none of these problems are solved, I truly fear that we will fall into a global recession with dire consequences for global stability," Habek said during a discussion at the World Economic Forum.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last month cut its global growth forecasts for the second time this year, citing the war in Ukraine and inflation as a "clear and present danger" for many countries.

The president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, who is scheduled to speak in Davos today, warned that growth and inflation are on opposite paths, while pressure from rising prices is suppressing economic activity and destroying the purchasing power of households.

"The war between Russia and Ukraine could turn out to be a turning point for hyperglobalization," Lagarde announced in yesterday's blog. "This could lead to a weakening of the efficiency of supply chains for a period of time and, during that transition, create more persistent pressures on the economy," Lagarde added.

Although the economic cost of the Ukrainian crisis is felt most in Europe, the American economy suffers the most pressure from rising prices.

The consumer price index jumped from almost zero two years ago to 8,5 percent in March, the highest in 40 years. The US Federal Reserve responded earlier this month with its biggest rate hike in 22 years, and Chairman Jerome Powell has hinted at hikes of a similar scale - half a percentage point - at the next two meetings.

The increase in interest rates, however, will further weaken consumption and affect the American labor market.

Key emerging markets, including China, are still expected to post growth this year, albeit at a slower pace than previously forecast.

Marcos Trojo, president of the New Development Bank established in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, said that his bank still expects "strong growth" this year in China, India and Brazil.

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