Kurdish forces have long been the backbone of Western efforts to fight ISIS in Syria, but Turkey's animosity toward the groups has threatened those efforts. Now a similar thing is happening with plans for the expansion of NATO, writes the "Financial Times" and reminds that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is blocking the admission of Finland and Sweden to the Alliance precisely because of their ties to Kurdish groups.
Yesterday, Erdogan told state television TRT Haber that Ankara cannot give the green light to "states that support terrorism" as long as he is the president. "They are not honest and fair. We cannot repeat the mistake of the past towards countries that accept and encourage such terrorists within NATO, which is a security organization," Erdogan said.
Ethnic Kurds live throughout Turkey, Syria, Iran, Iraq, but do not have their own state. Erdogan has repeatedly threatened another incursion into Syria to deal with the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which he claims is just another name for Turkey's Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which waged an armed struggle against Ankara in 1984.
However, as the FT points out, the key role played by the YPG in the fight against ISIS in northeastern Syria, where a ceasefire has largely been maintained since 2019, means that Western allies and even - as some analysts believe - Erdogan himself are not willing to fully end their operations in Syria.
The US is unlikely to give the green light to Turkey's incursion and crackdown on Kurdish forces in northern Syria in exchange for Ankara supporting Sweden and Finland's NATO bids
Abandoning Kurdish forces in Syria “would likely lead to collapse, chaotic violence on the scale of what we saw in Afghanistan last year. I think it is completely unimaginable that the USA would decide on such a thing at this moment," said Sam Heller from the "Century" Foundation for the FT.
Ankara has long objected to Western support for the YPG, which has strained relations between Turkey and NATO partners since 2014.
The United States tried to make the YPG more acceptable to Turkey by creating the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish umbrella organization.
Western countries, including Sweden and the UK, support the group, which contributed significantly to the victory over ISIS in 2019. The US continues to rely heavily on the SDF in the fight against ISIS extremists, for stabilization in areas captured from the extremists, such as and to prevent the return of the group, Heller said.
Last Tuesday, the United States warned Erdogan not to launch any operations in Syria, while the SDF said Turkey's "show of force... is an attempt to destabilize the region and rebuild the remnants of ISIS."
Erdogan did not give any time frame for a possible new incursion into Syria, he only told reporters: "We will come suddenly one night... even the smallest attack on Turkey will not go unanswered."
Experts generally agree that ISIS is not strong enough to re-establish its former "caliphate", but due to the incendiary atmosphere in northern Syria and the complex geography of the sleeper cells, they still carry out occasional insurgent attacks. The US-led coalition estimates that between 8000 and 16000 extremists are still operating in Syria and Iraq.
About 10 alleged ISIS members and several thousand more of their family members are in prisons and camps run by the SDF. Senior Kurdish officials have warned for years that the prisons are inadequate and vulnerable to attack. However, states are generally reluctant to take back their nationals to try or possibly rehabilitate them, despite calls from the SDF to do so.
In January, ISIS members staged a prison break in Hasakeh, the group's most serious attack in Syria in recent years. That attack led to 10 days of clashes with coalition forces. In an effort to spur economic activity, Washington last month approved certain foreign investments in areas controlled by the SDF. The FT points out that US officials said they had consulted with Ankara about the move.
Although it is not entirely clear how much this contributed to the current tensions, "I know that the Turks were not happy about it. That's what they told the Americans and others," Heller said.
Turkish forces have carried out several incursions into northern Syrian territory since 2016, targeting the SDF. Both sides have suffered losses in attacks that continue despite the ceasefire.
The threat of a new attack "could be Erdogan's bluff, or perhaps he is strengthening his position for negotiations on other issues. However, an attack as an option should not be dismissed," Darin Kalifa, an analyst for Syria at the International Crisis Group, told the FT. She said the attack would lead to chaos. Erdogan is unlikely to bring troops into direct conflict with the US, analysts say, but he would try to hurt the SDF and make the US-SDF partnership less viable. American forces would not intervene against allies, Heller said.
It is also unlikely that the US would give the green light for such an attack in exchange for Turkey's support of Sweden and Finland's efforts to join NATO, according to Kalifa. The key question is what Erdogan expects to get.
Some analysts have suggested that Erdogan may want to pressure the US to approve his request to buy new F-16 jets. Others believe that it is an internal political move to boost nationalist support ahead of next year's elections.
For Erdogan, "foreign policy always boils down to internal calculations to consolidate power," said Gonul Tol, director of the Turkey Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington. By pushing the SDF back as far as possible from the Turkish border, he can create enough space for a so-called "safe zone" where he can return Syrian refugees.
Two sources told Reuters that last week's talks between Turkey and the delegations of Sweden and Finland did not lead to any significant steps, and it remains unclear how long the talks will last.
Sweden and Finland said they condemned terrorism and welcomed the possibility of coordinating efforts with Ankara.
Turkey stated that it first expects "concrete steps" from the two Scandinavian countries regarding its demands, which include the recognition that the YPG is a "terrorist" group.
Regardless of how the negotiations unfold, the issue of Western support for the YPG will continue to strain relations between NATO partners. "This is a vulnerability that they will have to address, and that Erdogan will continue to exploit," Kalifa said.
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