Recep Tayyip Erdogan played semi-professional football in his youth, but as the president of Turkey, he does not hold back from making a mistake in order to get what he wants in international politics. His decision last month to trip up Finland and Sweden on their way to NATO, at the time of the great threat posed by Russia, is, according to the Economist, as astonishing as it is effective.
On Tuesday, when NATO leaders gathered for a summit in Madrid, Erdogan was rewarded to a standing ovation from other leaders for agreeing to allow the two countries to join the alliance. "Fantastic news at the very start of the NATO summit," British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Twitter.
In a joint memorandum with Turkey, the two Nordic countries promised "unwavering solidarity and cooperation in the fight against terrorism, in all forms and manifestations." They also pledged not to support the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a radical Kurdish group that has waged a decades-long insurgency against Turkey, the Syrian Kurdish militia the People's Protection Units (YPG), and cleric Fethullah Gulen's network, which Ankara claims is behind the coup attempt. 2016 and which it characterized as a terrorist organization with the abbreviation FETO.
In exchange for Ankara's support, Finland and Sweden also agreed to lift the arms embargo on Turkey and to "address" the country's requests to extradite suspected terrorists "expeditiously and thoroughly... in accordance with the European Convention on Extradition."
Yesterday, just one day after Ankara lifted its veto on Sweden and Finland joining NATO, the Biden administration endorsed the sale of fighter jets to Turkey.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has worked tirelessly for weeks to resolve the dispute between Turkey and the Nordic countries, which has threatened to cast a shadow over the summit. "No ally has suffered more brutal terrorist attacks than Türkiye (Turkey)," he said, trying to pronounce the country's name in Erdogan's preferred way. "The Economist" points out that Stoltenberg was also helped by other allies, primarily the United States, which did not expose itself, but in all probability warned Turkey that there was a risk that its request for new F-16 bombers would be blocked in Congress.
Yesterday, just one day after Ankara lifted its veto on Sweden and Finland joining NATO, the Biden administration endorsed the sale of fighter jets to Turkey. Reuters reminds that Turkey submitted a request for the purchase of 40 aircraft in October, and Washington has so far not made a public statement about the sale, except for statements that the sale of any type of weapon must go through the necessary legal procedure.
US arms sales to NATO ally Turkey became controversial after Ankara bought Russian missile defense systems, which led to US sanctions and Turkey's removal from the F-35 bomber program.
US President Joe Biden, speaking before his meeting with Erdogan in Madrid, praised the Turkish leader's efforts to reach an agreement with the Nordic countries. "I especially want to thank you for what you have done," said Biden.
If an agreement between Turkey and the Nordic countries had not been reached, it would have fueled talk of a "breakup of NATO," which would be considered a victory for Putin, Ivo Dalder, the former US ambassador to NATO, announced on Twitter. He stated that "achieving an agreement was a high priority. It was important to Biden and others. Finally, to Turkey."
Sinan Ulgen from the EDAM organization in Istanbul believes that the agreement suits all parties. "If the agreement in Madrid had not been reached, the price in terms of Turkey's foreign relations, especially with the US, would have become tangible. And it's not a bad deal. It's an easy sell in Ankara, Stockholm and Helsinki. Quite an achievement," he announced on Twitter.
NATO officially extended an invitation to Finland and Sweden yesterday, but those two countries may have to overcome more obstacles on their way to NATO membership, and some critics say yesterday's deal handed Turkey a foreign policy veto.
Caution and concern in Sweden
"Sweden may again have problems with Turkey. If Turkey is not satisfied with how Sweden fulfills its part of the agreement, the Turkish parliament may block Sweden again," the "SvD" daily reported.
Amineh Kakabaveh, an independent Swedish member of parliament and a former Kurdish fighter on whom the survival of the social democratic government depended on a vote in the parliament, said that it was a "black day for Swedish foreign policy".
"It also puts a lot of pressure on people who are seeking asylum and refuge in this country, but no longer feel safe because Sweden is selling their basic rights," she said.
The concern relates primarily to Kurdish dissidents living in Sweden and Finland and that the agreement will make it easier for Erdogan to launch new incursions into northern Syria to capture towns controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.
"We warned in time about the danger of putting Swedish foreign policy in the hands of the despot Erdogan," the leader of the Left Party, Nushi Dadgostar, announced on Twitter.
After Turkey announced yesterday that it will renew its requests to Sweden and Finland for the extradition of individuals it considers to be terrorists, and Turkish Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag said that it is about the files of six members of the PKK, six members of FETO in Finland and 10 members of FETO and 11 members of the PKK in To Sweden, Finnish President Sauli Ninisto said that Finland will continue to respect European rules in extradition decisions.
Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Anderson, as reported by Reuters, said that Sweden will continue to comply with local and international law in extradition and that the process will depend on the information they receive from Turkey. "There are those in Sweden who are upset, and I want to clarify three things," she told reporters on the sidelines of the NATO summit.
"First of all, we never extradite anyone who is a Swedish citizen, and I know that there are also Swedish citizens among those who are concerned, so they should not worry. Second, of course, as before, we will adhere to Swedish and international law... Third, this means that if one does not engage in theoretical activities, one should not worry."
Alliances firmly with Ukraine
After the Turkish veto was removed from the agenda, NATO leaders could focus on strengthening the Alliance in the circumstances of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which Stoltenberg yesterday called "the biggest security crisis in recent decades."
NATO leaders have characterized Russia as a "direct threat" to the security of allies and vowed to modernize Ukraine's exhausted military, while saying they stand firmly with Kiev in the "heroic defense of the country." They also pledged to strengthen combat and rapid-reaction forces on the Alliance's eastern rim, closer to Russia, and Biden announced additional deployments of US ground, naval and air forces across Europe, including a permanent military headquarters with a supporting battalion in Poland.
The US president specified that plans for new deployments include new warships in Spain, fighter squadrons in Britain, ground troops in Romania, air defense units in Germany and Italy and a number of deployments in the Baltic states.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky repeated to NATO leaders that Kiev needs more weapons and money as soon as possible in order to be able to confront Russia, which is superior in terms of weapons. In his address via video link, he said that Ukraine needs five billion dollars per month for defense and protection.
"This is not a war that Russia is waging only against Ukraine. This is a war for the right to dictate conditions in Europe - for the future world order," warned Zelensky.
New NATO strategy: Russia "direct threat", China "challenge"
Yesterday, NATO adopted a new strategic concept that describes Russia as "the most significant and direct threat to the security and stability of the Allies".
In the document of the leaders of the alliance at the summit in Lisbon in 2010, in which the vision for NATO was presented, the goal was a long-term partnership with the Cold War adversary. China was not even mentioned in the strategy 12 years ago, and in the West it was seen as a benign trade partner and production base. It is now described as a challenge to NATO's "interests, security and values", as an economic and military power that remains "non-transparent about its strategy, intentions and military build-up".
Strategic concepts of NATO
The strategic concept determines the areas on which the Alliance focuses and is updated approximately every decade. That document provides guidelines that are then translated into political and military action. The last strategic concept was drawn up when the Alliance participated in the US-led fight against Taliban militants, and the mission to build democracy in Afghanistan. That was four years before Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, prompting NATO to return to its roots of collective defense rather than crisis management beyond the military alliance's borders.
The 2022 concept was adopted late. Diplomats and officials said the Alliance did not dare formulate a new strategy while US President Donald Trump, a NATO critic who threatened to leave the Alliance in 2018, was in office.
Rusija
In the new strategic concept, Russia is accused of seeking to "establish spheres of influence and direct control through coercion, subversion, aggression and annexation."
NATO claims that Moscow is using conventional military, cyber and hybrid means to achieve those goals. "Moscow's military build-up, including in the Baltic, Black Sea and Mediterranean areas, along with its military integration with Belarus, poses a challenge to our security and interests," the strategic concept states.
Concerns are also expressed about the modernization of Russia's nuclear forces, Moscow's threat to use nuclear weapons and the development of "new and disruptive dual-capability delivery systems", referring to the development of hypersonic weapons capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads.
Russia accuses NATO of threatening European security by expanding to the east since the mid-1990s.
In response to Russia's moves, NATO will significantly strengthen deterrence and defense, the document states, and at the same time emphasizes that the Alliance does not want a conflict with Moscow, but rather strives for dialogue.
"We remain ready to maintain open channels of communication with Moscow in order to manage and mitigate risks, prevent escalation and increase transparency," the strategic concept states.
China
China is mentioned for the first time in NATO's strategic concept. China's "stated ambitions and policy of coercion pose a challenge to our interests, security and values," the document says. The draft accuses China of using malicious hybrid and cyber operations, confrontational rhetoric and disinformation to attack NATO allies and threaten NATO security.
China denies using those tactics.
The document also states China's economic ambitions, i.e. to seek to gain control over key technological and industrial sectors, key infrastructure, and strategic goods and supply chains.
"It uses economic influence to create strategic dependencies and reinforce its influence," the concept reads. "It seeks to undermine the rules-based international order, including in the space, cyber and maritime domains. Concerns are also being expressed about strengthening ties between Moscow and Beijing.
NATO says that it will remain open to constructive cooperation with China, but also that it will increase awareness and improve readiness against "coercive tactics and Beijing's efforts to divide the Alliance."
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