The biggest arms deal South Korea has ever made will make it a major supplier of the weapons that have flooded Europe since the start of the war in Ukraine. The sale to NATO member Poland includes more than 1.600 tanks and howitzers and nearly 50 fighter jets.
South Korean and Polish officials signed a framework agreement on Wednesday in Warsaw, in a settlement that Poland described as a key part of its efforts to rearm amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, to which it has sent at least $1,7 billion in military aid.
The scope and speed of the multibillion-dollar deal surprised some analysts, given that Poland is also buying additional Abrams tanks from the US and is at loggerheads with Germany over demands for more Leopold tanks.
Polish Minister of Defense Marius Blaščak he said that South Korea is the only player that can provide new weapons quickly enough.
"It is extremely important that the first howitzers and tanks are delivered this year," he said at the signing ceremony.
For the countries of the Eastern bloc of NATO, the possibility of cooperation with South Korea is particularly interesting, he says Oskar Pietrevich, an analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM).
"The war in Ukraine is a stimulus for South Korea's military industry. The interest in South Korea's offer may be even greater if you take into account the huge disappointment of the NATO Eastern Bloc countries with Germany's position," Pietrevich said.
The reluctance of some other states to act opened that possibility, he said Ramon Pacheco Pardo from the Brussels School of Management.
"Someone has to arm Ukraine and South Korea is taking advantage of that opportunity," he said.
Both a business opportunity and a political gesture
Seoul, however, is not ready to admit that the sale has anything to do with Ukraine.
South Korea's policy as a US ally is not to supply Ukraine with lethal aid and is trying to avoid angering Russia - both for economic reasons and because of the influence Moscow can exert on North Korea, writes Reuters.
When asked whether this agreement is a signal of greater involvement in the Ukrainian conflict, the South Korean foreign minister Jin Park emphasized that it was concluded only bilaterally with Poland.
Poland has already sent Ukraine some of its AHS Krab howitzers, which are made with parts from South Korea. One security source said such transfers may require Seoul's approval.
South Korea's policy as a US ally is not to supply Ukraine with lethal aid and it seeks to avoid angering Russia - both for economic reasons and because of the influence Moscow can exert on North Korea
South Korea's Arms Procurement Authority said it would not confirm details of individual export approvals, but said the latest agreements with Warsaw were not about helping Ukraine, but were aimed at strengthening Poland's military.
"I think it is partly a business opportunity, but also a political gesture," said Pacheco Pardo.
"South Korea will suffer from this in terms of relations with Russia, so there is that political choice."
Long-term plans
The Export-Import Bank of Korea said that the country's arms exports reached a record of more than seven billion dollars last year, but that this deal may overshadow it.
Officials have not confirmed its value, but the fighter jets alone cost about $XNUMX billion, according to manufacturer Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI), and Poland said it was one of its most important and largest military orders in recent years.
American military analytics firm Forecast International said the deal could be larger than Poland's total defense spending of $14,1 billion this year.
"It's like all our companies, big and small, coming together to work on one project throughout the year, so it's huge," he said. Eom Hyo-sik, a former executive at conglomerate Hanwha and a retired military officer.
Blaszczak said the deal is not just about "filling holes in our armed forces" and is a "strategic approach" including technology transfers that will allow Poland to produce a large number of South Korean weapons and cooperate with Seoul long into the future.
Among the weapons covered by the agreement are variants of the K2 Black Panther tank, manufactured by Hyundai Rotem, and the K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzer, manufactured by Hanwha Defense.
Hanwha Defense said it plans to set up a branch in Poland to expand its European military exports, including the K9, Redback armored vehicles and guided missiles.
Reuters writes that the first phase of the agreement will include 180 tanks and 48 howitzers, and the first deliveries are expected this year. The second phase will include more than 800 tanks and 600 howitzers, both of which will be produced in Poland by 2026, Blaszczak said.
He added that the first FA-50 aircraft, which can be used for training as well as in combat, will arrive in the middle of next year. KAI said it will help the Polish government and companies set up maintenance, training and production facilities, which it hopes could eventually help it sell 1.000 FA-50s globally, as well as generate interest in its new aircraft. generation KF-21.
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