When a statement by a religious leader in Iran brought Iraq to the brink of civil war last Sunday, there was only one man who could stop it: a 92-year-old Shiite cleric who has proven once again that he is the most influential man in his country.
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has said nothing publicly about the riots that broke out in the streets of Iraq.
However, government officials and knowledgeable Shiite sources said it was only Sistani's behind-the-scenes actions that stopped the chaos.
The story of Iraq's bloodiest week in three years shows the limitations of traditional politics in a country where the power to start and stop wars rests with clerics - many of whom have murky relations with Iran and the Shiite theocracy next door.
Iraqis who took to the streets blamed Tehran for sparking the violence, which began when an Iran-based cleric dismissed Iraq's most influential politician, Moqtada al-Sadr, and instructed followers - including Sadr himself - to seek guidance from Iran's supreme leader .
Sadr's followers tried to enter government buildings. That evening they drove through Baghdad in trucks armed with machine guns and bazookas.
Armed men believed to be members of a pro-Iranian militia opened fire on Sadr's supporters, who pelted them with stones. At least 30 people were killed.
Then, within 24 hours, it was as suddenly over as it had begun. Sadr spoke and called for peace. His armed supporters and unarmed followers began to leave the streets, the army lifted the curfew and a fragile peace was restored in the capital.
For insight into how the riots broke out and how they were contained, Reuters spoke to nearly 20 officials from the Iraqi government, Sadr's movement and rival Shiite factions considered pro-Iran. Most spoke to the British agency on condition of anonymity.
All talks point to a decisive intervention by Sistani, who has never held an official political post in Iraq but is the most influential cleric in the Shiite religious center of Najaf.
According to the minister, Sistani's cabinet made sure that Sadr understood that if he did not call on his followers to end the violence, Sistani would condemn the violence.
"Sistani sent a message to Sadr that if he does not stop the violence, then Sistani will be forced to issue a statement calling for an end to the conflict - which will make Sadr look weak and act as if he caused the bloodshed in Iraq," one source told Reuters. Iraqi government official.
Three Najaf-based Shia officials close to Sistani would not confirm that Sistani's cabinet had sent an explicit message to Sadr, but said he had been made clear that Sistani would be converted if Sadr did not call for an end to the unrest.
Betrayal
Sistani's intervention may have prevented more bloodshed for now. However, it does not solve the problem of maintaining peace in a country where so much power rests outside the political system in the hands of the Shiite clergy, including clerics closely associated with Iran.
Sistani, who has intervened at key junctures in Iraqi history since the US invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein, has no apparent successor. Despite his age, little is known in the public about his health.
Meanwhile, most of the most influential Shia figures - including Sadr at various points in his career - studied, lived or worked in Iran, a theocracy that makes no attempt to separate clerical influence from state power.
The recent violence began after Ayatollah Kadim al-Haeri, a leading Iraqi-born Shiite cleric who has lived in Iran for decades, announced he was retiring from public life and closing his cabinet due to old age. Such a move is virtually unheard of in the 1300-year-old history of Shia Islam, where leading clerics remain in office until death.
Sistani's intervention in the long run does not solve the problem of maintaining peace in a country where so much power rests outside the political system in the hands of the Shiite clergy, including clerics closely linked to Iran.
Haeri was appointed spiritual adviser to the Sadrist movement by the father of Moqtada al-Sadr, who was also an influential cleric and was killed by Saddam's regime in 1999. In announcing his resignation, Haeri condemned Sadr for creating discord among Shiites and called on his followers for future guidance on religious matters. they ask Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - the cleric who runs the Iranian state.
Sadr has made it public that he blames outside influences - indirectly Tehran - for Haeri's intervention: "I don't think he did this voluntarily," Sadr tweeted.
An influential member of the Sadrist movement in Baghdad said that Sadr was furious. "Haeri was Sadr's spiritual leader. Sadr saw it as a betrayal aimed at stripping him of his religious legitimacy as a Shiite leader at a time when he is fighting for power against Iran-backed groups."
Sadrist officials in Najaf said the move meant Sadr would have to choose between obeying his spiritual leader Khaeri and following Khamenei, or rejecting him and potentially angering senior officials in his movement who were close to his father.
Instead, Sadr announced his retirement from politics, causing his followers to take to the streets.
Those familiar with Shia Islam say Haeri's move to close the office and instruct followers to support the Iranian leader certainly seems suspicious in the Iraqi context, where suggestions of Iranian interference have explosive potential.
"There is strong reason to believe that he acted under Iranian pressure - but we must not forget that Haeri had a disagreement with Sadr in the past," said Marsin Alshamari of Harvard's Kennedy School.
"He directed his followers to Khamenei when there was no religious need for it. It seems unlikely that a person in his position would just close an office that is probably quite lucrative," she said.
Violence as a political instrument
As armed clashes raged in central Baghdad, Sadr remained silent for nearly 24 hours.
During this period, Shiite religious figures across Iraq tried to persuade Sadr to end the violence. They were joined by Shia officials in Iran and Lebanon, officials in those countries told Reuters, who said pressure on Sadr was channeled through Sistani's office in Najaf.
"The Iranians did not intervene directly. They shy away from the reaction to their influence in Iraq and try to influence events from a distance," said an Iraqi government official.
Baghdad is currently peaceful, but the deadline remains.
Sadr insists on new elections, while certain groups supported by Iran want to form a government. Clashes also broke out in oil-rich southern Iraq last Sunday.
The government was mostly silent. Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadimi said last Tuesday that he would leave office if the violence continued, in a statement issued several hours after the clashes had already stopped.
"Where is the prime minister, the commander in chief, in all this?" said Renad Mansur from Chatham House and added that new violence is possible.
"Sadr's main focus is to become the main Shia player in Iraq, and therefore wants to deal with Shia opponents. In Iraq, violence is one of the instruments of competition”.
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