The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is a new challenge for Moscow

The new conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has heightened fears that Russia could become embroiled in another war. Escalation of hostilities in the Caucasus has also brought Russian President Vladimir Putin another strategic problem, putting to the test Moscow's influence and support to traditional allies while it is focused on the war in Ukraine, the world media reports, Radio Free Europe (RSE) reports.

The decades-long conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia flared up again on September 13 near the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Washington Post points out.

Although both sides are accusing each other of the new conflict, some analysts specializing in the South Caucasus believe that Azerbaijan may have tried to seize the opportunity while Armenia's key ally, Russia, turned its attention to the invasion of Ukraine, where it suffered a strategic blow last week.

Some analysts also estimate that Baku is now at an advantage because Russia relies on transit routes through Azerbaijan to connect with Iran and Asia while under increasing global isolation, the paper points out and states that the European Union also relies more on Azerbaijan for energy. while looking for alternatives to Russian gas.

The long-running conflict in the mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which began in the late 80s, was reshaped by war in 2020 when Azerbaijan recaptured territories occupied by Armenia for decades, according to the Washington Post, indicating that the six-week war ended with a military victory for Azerbaijan and a fragile ceasefire. which was supported by Moscow and in which Armenia surrendered large parts of its territory.

The worst escalation of hostilities between the two former Soviet republics since 2020 has heightened fears that Russia could become embroiled in another war in addition to its invasion of Ukraine, the New York Times reports.

According to the newspaper, Moscow has been trying for years to establish a balance between the two countries, but this is an increasingly difficult task because the war in Ukraine has forced the Kremlin to focus its attention and strength elsewhere.

Since Russia is a close ally of Armenia, some military analysts suggest that recent Russian failures in northeastern Ukraine may have emboldened Azerbaijan to launch a new attack.

Russia and Armenia are part of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization military alliance, whose charter states that an attack on one member should be considered an aggression against all. In 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin played a key role in brokering a post-war ceasefire in which Azerbaijan regained some of the territory it lost during another conflict that began with the collapse of the Soviet Union in the late 80s.

The new conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia brought another big "strategic headache" to Putin, Politiko assesses.

At a time when Putin is on the defensive due to an unexpectedly successful counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces, Moscow is being asked to engage in order to stabilize the crisis in the Caucasus, the portal said, indicating that Armenia views Moscow as the main ally that can guarantee its fragile security, while Turkey is a key ally of Azerbaijan.

The ceasefire agreement after the war in 2020 is being implemented by Russian troops on the ground, but the Kremlin's peace efforts are being questioned by both sides, while the European Union is increasingly working to fill the gap, Politiko points out. Organized by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia discussed how to avoid future conflicts in Brussels in May. A new round of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has put the Kremlin's support for traditional allies to the test while it is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal estimates.

The conflict is the latest security challenge in Russia's sphere of influence since Moscow launched an invasion of Ukraine in February, the US newspaper said, adding that Russia's influence over some of its former partners in the post-Soviet world has diminished after being isolated by Western sanctions.

Russia sent 2.000 troops to help quell protests in Kazakhstan in January and supported the government of Belarus during a massive anti-government uprising in 2020.

Richard Giragosian, director of the Yerevan-based Center for Regional Studies think tank, said the escalation of the conflict was fueled by "both the perception and reality of Russia's weakness, especially given the recent events on the Ukrainian scene."

"Azerbaijan sensed a unique opportunity," Giragosian said.

The invasion of Ukraine has limited Russia's influence in some post-Soviet states, the Wall Street Journal said, noting that Kazakhstan, for example, remained neutral in the conflict in Ukraine despite receiving support from the Kremlin during protests in January.

The Ukrainian invasion also, the paper said, tested the limits of Russia's military power, forcing it to draw resources from the periphery of its sphere of operations from places like Syria and the Russian Far East. The war in Ukraine has also strained Russia's economic and diplomatic relations as Western countries have imposed extensive economic sanctions on Moscow.

Azerbaijan won the 2020 war in part thanks to Turkey's military support, including Turkish-made Bajraktar TB-2 drones, which have proven effective against Russia and Russian-backed forces in a series of conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal said, adding that it put Russia's military influence in the region to an additional test.

Armenia, where a Russian military base is located, also turned to the Collective Security Treaty Organization for help during the 2020 war, but the alliance ignored Yerevan's pleas.