Democracies threatened on the eve of key elections

The assassination attempt in Argentina and the outbreak of election-related violence in Brazil are indicative of growing discontent in Latin America and contribute to the creation of a toxic environment for all officials.

The political arena of Latin America has intensified due to the consequences of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, rising inflation and fears of a global recession.

These problems have affected the budget of voters in one of the regions with the most pronounced inequality in the world, deepening political divisions ahead of key elections, and in some countries they have threatened democracy itself.

"There is more and more extremism," independent Argentine public opinion researcher Marijel Fornoni told Reuters about the current political situation across Latin America.

"I think it reflects the inability of many governments to address the demands of citizens."

Argentina's center-left President Alberto Fernandez is trying to curb rising inflation that could hit 100 percent this year, while Chile's leftist President Gabriel Boric is trying to recover after his country's proposed progressive constitution went up in smoke and right-wing opposition strengthened in both countries.

Likewise, in the upcoming elections in Brazil, where former leftist President Luiz Ignacio da Silva is the favorite to win, right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro's tenacious base could form the basis of a hard-line opposition that will oppose Lula from day one.

Carlos Alvarado, the former center-left president of Costa Rica, said in an interview that polarization is a trend throughout the Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking world.

"The most down-to-earth messages, including populist ones, attract our attention and stir up emotions among people in an environment where there is a high degree of dissatisfaction, uncertainty, inequality and inflation," he said. "At this point, the call for reconciliation or negotiations doesn't usually find much support."

The stumbles of Argentina's Peronist government have highlighted a political "grieta," a word that means fissure in Spanish and is often used to describe increasingly polarized national politics.

Reuters points out that mutual accusations of the attempted assassination of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, the left-wing former president who currently serves as vice president, have only deepened the divisions.

Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Rodríguez Lareta, a potential presidential candidate next year, in a recent speech lamented the country's "infernal pendulum" that swings from one extreme to the other. This center-right politician said that "building a broad consensus" is the only real solution, but he did not present a detailed plan on how to do it.

The potential conciliator, however, is surrounded by hard-line opposition figures who reject any kind of rapprochement with factions within the ruling Peronist coalition, Fornonieva said.

The most mundane messages, including populist ones, attract our attention and stir up emotions in an environment where there is a high degree of dissatisfaction, uncertainty, inequality and inflation. At the moment, the call for reconciliation or negotiations usually does not find much support, said former Costa Rican President Carlos Alvarado

Voters in bitterly divided Brazil will choose between Bolsonaro and Lula in the first round of elections on October 2, although several minor candidates are also in the running.

Lula has tried to move closer to the center, and as part of that effort he has chosen a former center-right rival as his vice-presidential candidate who his aides say could manage economic policy if he wins.

The end of the campaign was marked by political violence, including two murders. Bolsonaro, like former President Donald Trump two years ago, said that he can only lose if there is massive electoral fraud.

In long-defunct Peru, left-wing President Pedro Castillo, who took office barely a year ago, is under investigation for corruption while his public support is plummeting.

In Colombia, although the outcome of the second round of presidential elections in June was peaceful, both major candidates, including leftist presidential winner Gustavo Petra, reported threats of violence during the campaign.

Authoritarian governments in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua have also been hit by divisions, with critics accusing them of repression and the absence of basic democratic rights.

According to critics, El Salvador and Guatemala are two more Central American countries whose democracies are under threat.

Salvadoran President Najib Bukele has sought to consolidate power by ordering more than 52.000 arrests in a crackdown on gangs since April, but without due process, according to Reuters. Last Sunday, Bukele announced that he would run again in 2024 despite the explicit constitutional ban on consecutive terms.

Still, Bukele remains very popular with an 85 percent approval rating, according to an August Gallup poll.

"El Salvador is a dictatorship, a populist, favorite dictatorship, but still a dictatorship," said the Guatemalan-American writer Francisco Goldman for the British agency.

Bekele won elections three years ago, which are considered free and fair.

In Guatemala, the government of President Alejandro Giamatea decided to arrest and imprison at least several dozen anti-corruption prosecutors and judges or force them into exile. Presidential elections in that country are scheduled for next June, and Djamatei's support is below 19 percent, Gallup's survey showed.

Goldman argues that the United States, which has been the main foreign influence in Central America for more than a century, must act more forcefully to rein in Giamattei and his associates, including freezing bank accounts and imposing other sanctions.

However, US officials in Central America are mostly focused on curbing migration, another indicator of discontent in the region, stressing that it will take time to root out widespread corruption, promote development and strengthen institutions.

However, critics like Goldman do not accept such justifications.

"To sit idly by and do absolutely nothing while Guatemala slides down the same, horrible, slimy slope into dictatorship itself is baffling," he said.