Global elections will shape the outcome of the war in Ukraine

The conventional wisdom is that wars end through negotiations. However, they often end or freeze at polling stations. The American war in Vietnam ended there, as well as the French war in Algeria, and it was with the defeat of Slobodan Milosevic in the 2000 elections that the wars in the former Yugoslavia really came to an end.

Today, the war in Ukraine is taking place in the shadow of important elections scheduled for 2024. Elections in Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan and the United States will be crucial in shaping the conduct of the war in 2023. The outcome of those elections could define the shape of the next international order.

In March 2024, presidential elections will be held in Russia and Ukraine. It is hard to imagine Vladimir Putin losing an election that was organized for one reason only - for him to win. However, burdened by an unsuccessful "special operation", he also has reason to worry that in the event of a military defeat, or a conflict frozen to his detriment, he will face opposition not only from the handful of liberals who remained in the country, but also from mobilized and credible nationalist right.

This has not happened during his more than two decades of rule, but the election campaign combined with failures on the front could trigger the anti-Putin moment that Europeans and Americans have been waiting for - although it is unlikely that it would be Russia's moment of freedom.

Ukrainian elections will also have a profound impact on President Volodymyr Zelensky's strategic decisions in 2023. They will make it impossible for him to accept any territorial compromise, for fear of losing the election. Postponing the vote is not an option.

However, holding elections in wartime, when most of the population is in exile or internally displaced, will be a huge logistical challenge for Zelenskiy. Organizing free and fair elections will be of crucial importance for strengthening the image of Ukraine as a democratic David fighting against the autocratic Russian Goliath.

In next year's election cocktail, the presidential election in Taiwan could also become a factor that will affect the dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The fear of a nationalist victory in them could affect China's "unification" strategy. It is not yet known what lesson President Xi Jinping learned from the Russian invasion. Did he conclude that Putin was wrong to start the war or that he started it too late?

Elections in wartime, when most of the population is in exile or internally displaced, will be a huge challenge for Volodymyr Zelensky

The need to keep the Americans at bay could also convince the Chinese government, already humiliated by its failure to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic, to increase support for Moscow in the hope of keeping the US locked in the European conflict.

The US presidential election and, to a much lesser extent, the European Parliament elections, will also have a direct impact on the conduct of the war. The US presidential election could be more decisive for the outcome of the war than any military operation on the ground. Ukrainians cannot resist Putin's murderous machinery if the Americans and Europeans decide to cut significant military and financial support.

In this sense, Ukrainians have reason to fear a Democratic defeat in the presidential election, as US support for their war effort could soften depending on which Republican wins. And for the Democrats and their European allies, Putin's success in Donbass or NATO's decreed involvement in the war could dramatically affect who will be the next US president and who will be elected to the European Parliament.

Ukrainians cannot resist Putin's killing machine if the Americans and Europeans decide to cut significant military and financial support

Russian success on the front or a major NATO involvement in the conflict could shift the balance of power to the Republicans in the US presidential election. The last thing the Democrats and their European allies need is for voters to blame the White House for causing World War III. In order for Joe Biden and his European allies to win the elections, it is crucial that the Ukrainians continue to win on the battlefield.

We know how economic interdependence and the proliferation of nuclear weapons have changed the nature of modern warfare. What we are not yet aware of is how the upcoming series of elections could also change the nature of the war in Ukraine, especially at a time of global hyperpolarization.

A message? To win wars in the 21st century, it is not always enough to have superiority on the battlefield. You also have to win elections, and not just in your own country.

The author is the president of the Center for Liberal Studies in Sofia. The article is taken from "Financial Times"

Prepared by: A. Šofranac