Living under China's strict Covid-19 restrictions for the past three years has caused enough stress and uncertainty for Zhang Qi to consider giving up having children.
When China abruptly abolished the zero-rate regime of covid last month and allowed the free spread of the virus, a definite "no" prevailed, said this executive director of an e-commerce company from Shanghai.
Stories about mothers and children not being able to reach doctors in medical facilities overwhelmed by people infected with Covid were the last straw for Zhang, writes Reuters.
"I heard that giving birth in a public hospital is horrible. I'm really not thinking about having a baby," said the 31-year-old.
A glimpse of the scars the pandemic has inflicted on China's already bleak demographic outlook could emerge on January 17 when official population figures for 2022 are expected to be released, according to Reuters.
Some demographers expect China's population to see its first decline since the Great Famine of 2022 in 1961, a profound shift with far-reaching consequences for the global economy and world order.
The number of newborns in 2022 is expected to fall to record low levels, below 10 million, from last year's 10,6 million babies - which was already 11,5 percent less than in 2020.
"With that historical turn, China entered a long and irreversible process of population decline, the first time in Chinese and world history," said Wang Feng, professor of sociology at the University of California.
"In less than 80 years, China's population could decrease by 45 percent. Then it will be a China that the world will not recognize".
China's total population increased by 480.000 to 1,4 billion in 2021. The United Nations (UN) predicts that China's population will begin to decline this year as India takes over as the world's most populous country.
UN experts predict China's population will shrink by 109 million by 2050, more than triple their previous forecast in 2019.
While nine of the world's 10 most populous countries are experiencing fertility declines, China's 2022 fertility rate of 1,18 was the lowest and well below the OECD standard of 2,1 for a stable population.
The country, which imposed a one-child policy from 1980 to 2015, officially acknowledged it was on the brink of demographic decline last year, when the National Health Commission said the population could begin to decline before 2025.
President Xi Jinping said in October that the government would adopt new measures to increase the country's birth rate.
From 2021, the authorities introduced measures including tax breaks, longer maternity leave, improved health insurance and housing subsidies to encourage citizens to have more children. The impact of those measures has been weak so far.
Internet searches for baby strollers on China's Baidu fell 17 percent in 2022 and 41 percent from 2018, while searches for baby bottles fell by more than a third from 2018. By contrast, searches for nursing homes grew eightfold last year, he points out. Reuters.
The opposite is happening in India, where Google Trends 2022 showed a 15 percent year-on-year increase in searches for baby bottles, while searches for baby cribs grew almost fivefold.
The financial burden of educating children, some of the most stressful college entrance exams in the world and nursery enrollment for only about 5,5 percent of children under the age of three - far below the OECD average - are key factors affecting fertility rates, he said. institute of YuWa Population Research this month.
Reuters states that the economic impact of an aging society will be significant.
Demographer Ji Fuxian expects the proportion of Chinese people aged 65 and older to reach 37 percent in 2050, up from 14 percent last year and five percent in 1980. Its labor force will not be renewed at the same rate due to the decline in the birth rate.
"Rapid aging is slowing the Chinese economy, reducing incomes and increasing national debt... China is getting old before it gets rich," he said.
Murphy, a 22-year-old student at Beijing University of Communication, said she would not be able to afford a child because of the sluggish economy.
Closures due to covid last year slowed the economy to one of the lowest growth rates in nearly half a century.
"The pandemic has solidified my opinion," Murphy said.
"Even if I could make ends meet, why would I want to have children?"
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