Donald Trump will try to spin any indictment to his advantage, fueling anger among his hard-line supporters at what they see as an abuse of the justice system, though he could also turn off more Republicans tired of the drama he's creating who might seek another presidential candidate.
Prosecutors in Manhattan could indict the former Republican president this week over alleged payments to porn actress Stormi Daniels in exchange for her silence during the 2016 presidential campaign. Trump has denied having a relationship with Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford.
While the prosecution of a former president would be unprecedented in US history and put Trump in an awkward position, his most loyal supporters are likely to see it as a politically motivated act that will only strengthen their determination to support him in the 2024 Republican presidential primary, they said. are party officials, strategists and political analysts for Reuters.
"I think it will only strengthen the resolve of his supporters," said Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist who has represented Trump in many media appearances during the 2020 presidential campaign.
However, in order to win the party's nomination, Trump will likely have to expand support beyond the 25-30 percent of the Republican electorate that is considered to be on his side regardless of circumstances, especially if the field of Republican candidates narrows in the coming months. The indictment could also hamper his efforts to gain more support.
Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said the allegations could influence some Republicans to support Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or another potential candidate who, unlike Trump, has no problems with the law.
"This is not good for Trump, the only question is how bad this is for Trump," said Sabato. "There can be more indictments... and then that becomes a big problem."
Trump's campaign accuses the Manhattan district attorney's office, as well as prosecutors handling separate cases against him in Georgia and federally, of working at the behest of Democrats to stall his re-election campaign.
People close to Trump say that his staff will try to present the indictment as evidence that all legal proceedings against him - including two impeachments in Congress - are unwarranted attempts by the "deep state" to undermine him and his supporters.
Trump will have more social media from which to send his message after YouTube on Friday joined the platforms that have re-granted him access.
Trump was kicked off YouTube, Facebook and Twitter after his supporters stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
Now he's back on all three platforms, meaning he's got a powerful microphone to rally his base, as he did during the 2016 White House campaign.
It is unclear how Trump's rivals for the Republican nomination will approach the indictment, although several of them have already made it clear that they consider any attempt to indict Trump to be politically motivated.
Sam DeMarco, chairman of the Republican Party in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, said the candidates are likely to allude to the need for less drama without directly naming Trump.
On Monday, DeSantis hinted at what that might look like when he criticized what he called the politicization of the Manhattan district attorney's office, but he also took the opportunity to take a veiled attack on a rival. Trump responded aggressively with a post on his social network.
DeMarco said that Republicans will view the indictment of the Manhattan prosecutor as politically motivated, bearing in mind that federal prosecutors reviewed the Daniels case in 2018 and decided not to indict Trump, even though the Department of Justice's policy is to bring indictments against the current president. the president.
Trump has repeatedly defied predictions of his doom since launching his bid for the White House in 2015. Because of his ability to avoid responsibility, he was called the "Teflon Don". He once boasted that he could shoot someone in midtown Manhattan and not face the consequences.
Trump defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 despite the release of a video of him making vulgar comments about women. While he was president in 2018, he did not pay a political price for the Stormy Daniels affair, although his lawyer, who blamed Trump, ended up in prison for organizing the payments.
Trump remains the favorite for the Republican nomination in 2024 as the results of a poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos show that he enjoys the support of 44 percent of Republicans, significantly more than DeSantis, who has the support of 30 percent.
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