That representatives of Saudi Arabia and Iran sat together for five days in early March was a sensation in itself. The fact that the biggest rivals in the Persian Gulf even agreed to restore diplomatic relations on March 10 caused great attention in the world. And the biggest surprise regarding the rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran was that the two feuding neighbors shook hands right in Beijing.
They have been in hostile relations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. For more than ten years, they have been supporting opposing sides in various conflicts in the region, thus leading proxy wars. They have not had diplomatic relations for seven years. Successful mediation on perhaps the most dangerous fault line in the Middle East has given Beijing's role in the region a new quality.
China: relations with all parties
Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East program at the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), recalls that the United States, which has long been the undisputed decisive force in the Persian Gulf, has refused to mediate. Because Washington has no relations with Tehran and "has very little constructive influence to reach an agreement there," says Barnes-Dacey and adds: "The basic reality is that China was able to intervene because it had relations with all parties, as well as levers to set it in motion".
This influence of Beijing is primarily based on the economy: for both Iran and Saudi Arabia, China is by far the most important trading partner, according to former American diplomat Jeffrey Feltman. And in other parts of the Middle East, trade with China is three times higher than with the United States. "We cannot ignore the importance of China for that region," concludes Feltman.
Sebastian Sons from the CARPO Institute for the Middle East in Bonn notes for DW that China in the Persian Gulf is increasingly perceived not only as an economic, but also as a possible political and even security partner. Sons observes that there is a clear respect for China in the region, while at the same time, as he notes, "confidence in the US and Europe has fallen massively in recent years, and accordingly, they are hardly perceived as really serious mediators."
Little enthusiasm in Washington
American politicians responded to Beijing's success in mediation with the expected muted enthusiasm. "China's role won't exactly warm hearts in Washington," summed up the mood in a tweet from Michael Singh of the Washington-based think tank the Middle East Policy Institute.
The US government has cautiously welcomed the deal – while otherwise trying to play down China's mediating role. National Security Council Communications Director John Kirby was rather reserved in his initial reaction to the signing of the agreement in Beijing:
"If that agreement - regardless of the interests or who sits at the table - can stop the war in Yemen and if Saudi Arabia does not have to constantly try to defend itself against attacks by the Houthis, financed and supported by Iran, then we we finally say hello," Kirby said.
Jeffrey Feltman, who once mediated numerous conflicts on behalf of the United Nations, reminds us of an important fact: diplomatic relations are by no means the end of the strategic rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Great power rivalry in the background
The American diplomat also sees China's mediation in the context of the systemic rivalry between Beijing and Washington. And he sees clear changes in relations to which US policy must adapt. Americans would have to accept that even countries like Saudi Arabia, with which the US has had close ties for 75 years, will in the future be secured in all directions. "They will resist pressures to join one camp or the other. We see that in Russia's war in Ukraine and we see that in the rivalry between the US and China. There are many countries that the US still has close ties with that are not expected to. that they will take our side in the rivalry with China," says Feltman.
Middle East expert Dina Esfandiyari from the Brussels think tank Crisis Group also assesses that the countries in the Persian Gulf are repositioning in accordance with the general political climate. And that has unpleasant consequences for Washington: "Smaller countries will play big powers against each other in order to get the greatest possible benefit from such relations," Esfandiyari expects.
Cultivating the image
In early December, Chinese state and party leader Xi Jinping was welcomed with full honors at the first Arab-Chinese summit in Riyadh. At the same time, it was insisted that China deals only with economic relations in the Gulf - which is not surprising considering that a significant part of China's energy supply depends on stable conditions in the Persian Gulf region.
Crisis Group expert Esfandijari sees another motive for Beijing's increased commitment to the region: "China has presented itself as an alternative model, as a partner, as an intermediary – and as different from the Western model."
The Saudi-Iranian handshake fits into a diplomatic offensive by which China wants to present itself as a peace-making force of balance. Just a few days after the Saudi-Iranian agreement, Xi Jinping announced the "Global Civilization Initiative". Last spring, he already declared the so-called The "Global Security Initiative", and a year earlier, in 2021, the "Global Development Initiative". These are all vague formulations with few concrete obligations. In the West, however, such penetration was only noticed in passing. But in the Global South, Beijing can polish its image. And win points in the system competition.
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