The West should pay attention to "wavering states"

If it wants to maintain its influence on the global scene, the West must engage more significantly with the new bloc, the so-called "swing country", according to the latest report of the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based think tank.

The authors of the report identified Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey as "swing" or "wavering" states - states that have significant power on the world stage, but each of which has different preferences when it comes to cooperation outside the West. of the transatlantic alliance.

The influence of these countries on a global level is increasing - now more than ever, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and amid the growing rivalry between the United States and China.

"The West, by mistake, too often puts in the same basket wavering states, but also some other countries that either choose or simply fall into the space between two emerging global blocs. The fact that it labels them as the 'Global South' is a reflection of superficiality," wrote Heather A. Conley, President of the German Marshall Fund.

Collaboration requires flexibility

Brazil's partnerships are pragmatic and the country's leadership does not consider cooperation with different partners such as China, the EU, Russia and the US to be mutually exclusive, the report states. The West should therefore engage more with Brazil on issues of global governance, including climate change and the fight against inequality, and embrace a shift away from traditional centers of power.

South Africa also favors a multipolar global order and identifies with the so-called "Global South". Western leaders could encourage closer cooperation in South Africa's case by focusing on specific policy areas of mutual benefit, the report suggests.

"Governments of 'wavering states' do not see themselves as choosing between two static poles," wrote the report's authors, Martin Quenchez and Rachel Tausendfreund. as dictated by their special interests and their strategic analysts."

Balancing between the great powers

India is moving closer to the West as its border disputes and economic rivalry with China heat up, but its doctrine of strategic autonomy entails maintaining close ties with nations like Russia. The report said the West can engage more effectively with India by avoiding insisting on an "us or them" question, as this is incompatible with India's targeted minilateral diplomacy.

Indonesia aims to stay out of the rivalry between the great powers and conduct its own policy in the South China Sea without US assistance. More than a century of Western abuses from the days of colonialism and the Cold War have resulted in Indonesian authorities not taking well to Western criticism of their new illiberal policies, according to the report.

"A more constructive foreign policy discourse could be centered on mutual respect for national sovereignty and multilateralism," says the report of the German Marshall Fund.

"Hesitant states generally recognize that Russian and Chinese ambitions carry with them risks, but at the same time they do not perceive the US or Europe as credible global champions of national sovereignty," Quenchez and Tausendfreund write.

Different partners for defense and trade

Turkey's strategy involves balancing between the great powers to mitigate the impact of that rivalry. This is evidenced by her recent intervention in the war in Ukraine.

Turkey remains a key member of NATO and a close economic partner of the EU, but that country believes that the world is "bigger than five", that is, that the world is not represented only by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

Saudi Arabia also maintains close security ties with the West, primarily with the US, but Russia is its key partner in OPEC+, and China is its main trading partner.

At a time when Riyadh is strengthening its own position in the expectation that US attention focused on the Middle East will decrease, the West should not reject mediation by other countries, the report said.

All in all, experts indicate that the European Union and the United States must show flexibility in cooperation, be open to help coming from outside the West and refrain from pushing geopolitical partners to make "either-or" choices.

"Building relationships with decentralized political actors would likely bring long-term benefits for all partners," conclude the authors of the German Marshall Fund report.