A growing number of contenders for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 could pave the way for Donald Trump's victory, while on the other hand it could hamper the efforts of his main rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, party members and strategists told Reuters.
Republicans, who fear that Trump is too polarizing a figure to defeat Democratic President Joe Biden in 2024, believe that if too many candidates enter the race, they will divide the anti-Trump electorate. That would also allow the former president to seal the nomination, as he did in similar circumstances in 2016.
Former President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum plan to enter the race this Sunday, bringing the number of Trump challengers within the party into double digits.
Political analysts estimate that Trump can count on die-hard supporters, who represent at least a third of Republican voters, to help him win the party's nomination.
DeSantis is aggressively courting those voters, but many of them are not expected to abandon Trump, according to Reuters. According to political analysts, in order to win the Republican nomination, DeSantis must try to win a significant portion of the remaining 70 percent of the vote.
For those votes, he will likely have to fight a constellation of Republican rivals.
"I'm very concerned that we seem to be making the same mistake we did in 2016," Larry Hogan, the popular Republican governor from Maryland and a fierce critic of Trump, told Reuters.
Hogan had seriously considered running against Trump, but decided not to enter the race earlier this year because he feared a large number of candidates would only help the former president repeat his 2016 victory, when he defeated 17 other rivals.
"It's better for us to have a narrow field with one or two strong candidates instead of ten or more people who fail to attract attention and don't have strong support," Hogan said.
"The only one who benefits from it is Donald Trump," said Hogan and added that "the definition of insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result."
At this point, though, it's a two-man race. Trump dominates with the support of about 49 percent of Republican voters, while according to surveys, DeSantis is supported by about 19 percent. There is a wide gap between the favorites and the others: Pence has only five percent of support, followed by South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley with 4 percent, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in May.
The others are hardly worth mentioning. Christie has only 0 percent support, as does Senator Tim Scott from South Carolina, while former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson has XNUMX percent support, according to the survey.
The question arises as to why candidates with such low numbers in the polls even enter a race that already has a defined favorite at the start.
Trump dominates with the support of about 49 percent of Republican voters, while according to surveys, DeSantis has the support of about 19 percent.
"Most do it because they genuinely think they have a chance to win the nomination," said Oskar Brock, a Republican National Committee member from Tennessee.
Some know they can't win, John Fihery, a Republican strategist, told Reuters, but maybe they're positioning themselves for a cabinet position or hoping for a possible nomination as a vice presidential candidate, or they just want 15 minutes of fame to get a book deal.
Fiheri points out that in the past it happened that complete outsiders won nominations, including Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Trump, who in June 2015, when he announced his candidacy, had the support of only 4 percent.
Many may also have decided to enter the race in 2024 because of the vulnerability of the two favorites. Trump faces possible charges of withholding classified information and trying to alter the results of the 2020 election, while DeSantis is trying to bounce back after polls show his popularity is falling.
"These candidates who want to present themselves as an alternative to Trump see DeSantis stumble and say, 'why can't I get in there,'" said Jason Miller, Trump's adviser.
Presumably aware that the number of rivals is mounting, DeSantis finally began hitting back at Trump last week after enduring months of vicious attacks from his former ally.
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