What will be discussed at the NATO summit held on July 11 and 12 in the capital of Lithuania, Vilnius? What can Ukraine hope for? And why Sweden?
In the seventy-four-year history of NATO, the heads of state and government of the member countries have never been so close to the adversary. The capital of Lithuania, Vilnius, is only 200 kilometers from the border with the Russian aggressor in Kaliningrad.
And the border of Ukraine, which Russia attacked, is 360 kilometers away. The border of Russia's ally Belarus is only 35 kilometers away.
To secure the largest summit of heads of state and government in the history of Lithuania, its army and NATO are putting 4.000 soldiers at their disposal. If we add the police and secret services, then 12.000 people were engaged. Lithuanian diplomats say that Russian "provocations" must be reckoned with.
The German army is also involved, Patriot anti-aircraft systems are temporarily stationed around Vilnius for the purposes of the summit, and special military units are also engaged.
What should Lithuania achieve?
The space of the fair in the capital of Lithuania was renovated for the needs of the summit. The meeting will cost the country 38 million euros. The President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nauseda, believes that it is money well invested.
He says that with a well-organized summit, Lithuania shows that it is "grown up" enough to facilitate a historic gathering.
The host Naused is an energetic supporter of Ukraine and an advocate of its membership in NATO. He adds that it is important for him that NATO shows unity.
The Lithuanian president says that it is necessary to take advantage of Vladimir Putin's weakness after the attempted coup by Wagner's mercenaries.
"Some of my colleagues say that a strong Putin is less dangerous than a weak Putin. I disagree. We need to act more energetically because we are at a historic crossroads. If we are not decisive and united now, tomorrow will be too late."
What does Ukraine expect from NATO?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky repeatedly repeated his goal: "Ukraine is ready for membership in NATO. We are waiting for when NATO will be ready for Ukraine."
He said that he understands that Ukraine cannot become a member of the Western military alliance during an armed conflict, but he expects security guarantees: "Security guarantees are not only important for Ukraine, but also for the surrounding countries, due to Russian aggression in Ukraine and possible Russian aggression in other parts of Europe ."
Kyiv's expectations are high. But German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as well as a number of other heads of state and government of major member states, was clear: "There can be no accession to our defense alliance during wartime. One of the assumptions of membership is – that there are no unresolved border conflicts".
Would a faster admission of Ukraine to NATO be better?
Claudia Major, an expert on security policy at the Berlin-based Foundation for Science and Politics, believes that the German chancellor is too hesitant. She recommends that the parts of Ukraine that are firmly under Ukrainian control be accepted into NATO right now. Thus, according to her, Ukraine would become a true ally and then NATO would have to defend it.
"It is not a quick and simple process. Joining NATO is associated with numerous risks. But if we now say that membership is possible only after the war, then this is a factual motivation for Russia to prolong the war indefinitely and thus effectively has a veto on Ukraine's right to choose freely of alliances," said Klaudija Major for ARD, the first program of German television.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, whose mandate was recently extended for a year, tirelessly repeats the formula that NATO members will help Ukraine with arms, ammunition and training for as long as it needs to repel a Russian attack.
"At the summit, I expect new announcements of military aid to Ukraine. We will also agree on a multi-year program to prepare Ukraine for NATO membership. We need to ensure that Ukraine survives as a sovereign, independent country in Europe," Stoltenberg said ahead of the summit.
What is disputed?
Among the 30 delegations of NATO members, there is still no agreement on the details of the policy towards Ukraine and the defense plans to deter possible Russian attacks, according to diplomatic circles. In addition, Hungary, which is favorable to Russia, is not too involved in helping Ukraine.
Recently, France has been advocating for the rapid admission of Ukraine into NATO. Germany and other Western countries are more hesitant, while the Baltic states demand more weapons, more ammunition, in fact more of everything for Ukraine.
Former senior NATO strategy expert Štefani Babst says: "It's nice to go to a summit and say – oh, we're all on one side. I'm sorry, but that's nonsense. Everyone can see that there are different approaches. And when we see it, President Putin can see it. The Chinese and the Iranians can see it too."
Why does Sweden still have to wait?
It is decisive how the USA will position itself as the leader of NATO in disputed topics.
US President Joseph Biden has spoken out against the quick admission of Ukraine to NATO, but intends to promise more military aid.
In addition, he wants to influence Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to give up his resistance to Sweden's admission to full membership.
Erdogan will meet Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristerson on Monday (July 10.07) in Vilnius before the start of the summit.
The head of the Swedish government was at the White House last Sunday to ask for support. Turkey continues to accuse Sweden of not doing enough against Kurdish terrorists residing in the Scandinavian country. And the Hungarian parliament has not voted for the admission of Sweden for now. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says that a solution to the problem is on the horizon.
What next?
The Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, Olha Stefanishina, has been constantly traveling to Europe for the past few months to lobby for Ukraine's accession to the European Union and NATO. Taking into account the bickering within NATO, she assesses the prospects for a clear promise to Ukraine that it will be accepted into NATO as follows:
"NATO is a very special organization. Getting an answer from NATO is different from how other political friends around the world act."
That means, it will remain undefined.
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