United States President Joe Biden is in an awkward political position as he crafts an American response to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's defiant move to implement the first phase of controversial judicial reform.
Because of Washington's longstanding status as Israel's most important ally and largest arms supplier, it seems that Biden's options are limited.
Direct and sometimes harsh calls from Biden and senior officials failed to dissuade Netanyahu and his religious-nationalist coalition from voting in parliament on Monday to pass new restrictions on Israel's Supreme Court, which critics in the US and in mass street protests in Israel call anti-democratic.
In a terse statement, the White House called the vote in the Knesset "unfortunate" and called for work to achieve broad consensus. But she gave no indication that Netanyahu's government could face practical consequences, revealing the limitations of Biden's ability to rein in the longtime right-wing leader.
Biden, who has professed his love for Israel for much of his political career, faces the challenge of how to pressure Netanyahu to avoid further weakening the judiciary while preserving US-Israeli relations from possible disruption.
"Biden does not want an open conflict with Israeli leaders. It's politically too expensive," said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator during Democratic and Republican administrations. "Therefore he is stuck... in a difficult balancing act".
The burden of the 2024 election.
Biden is heavily burdened by the presidential elections in 2024. He and other Democrats are aware that they cannot afford to give Republicans ammunition to portray them as anti-Israel, which could hurt his support among independent voters and alienate Jewish donors.
Republican lawmakers and presidential candidates quickly accused Biden of meddling in Israel's internal affairs. In this way, they are trying to gain the support of Christian evangelicals, who are one of the groups that support Israel.
"Democrats persisting in their decades-long attempt to micromanage Israel's internal politics are wrong," former Vice President Mike Pence said on the "Hugh Hewitt Show" on Monday ahead of the vote in Israel.
At the same time, divisions over Israel are deepening within Biden's Democratic Party. Several Democratic lawmakers boycotted Israeli President Isaac Herzog's speech to Congress last Sunday over the treatment of Palestinians.
The main reason for Biden's limited influence is that he has ruled out any response that would cut billions of dollars in annual US military aid to Israel, US officials say.
Biden is also constrained by Washington's security needs, including maintaining Israel's military advantage over Iran. A threat by some Israeli army reservists, who oppose judicial reform, to oppose conscription has drawn Washington's attention as it raises questions about Israel's future military readiness.
Still, Biden may still have fewer pressure points at his disposal.
One of them is the administration's work to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, something Netanyahu has been trying to do, but with little success.
“So will Biden be less committed to those efforts? We don't know," said David Makowski from the Institute in Washington and a former senior US adviser on Israeli-Palestinian negotiations during the Barack Obama administration.
In addition, the Biden administration announced last Sunday that it was beginning a review period to decide whether to grant Israelis the privilege of visa-free travel to the US, a decision that could be complicated by diplomatic wrangling.
Tense conversations
Biden, who has a cool relationship with Netanyahu compared to former President Donald Trump, delivered an indirect criticism of the Israeli leader last Sunday by hosting a lavish Oval Office reception for Herzog, a moderate politician.
Netanyahu associates have been seeking a meeting all year, but have been rebuffed by the White House over concerns about judicial reforms and Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank, US officials said.
In a phone conversation before hosting Herzog, Biden finally invited Netanyahu for an official visit later this year. However, US officials have not yet set a date or agreed with statements by Israeli officials that they will meet at the White House in September.
One White House official said that since Biden has known Netanyahu for many years, he can be particularly direct with him in private conversations. Biden used their latest call to put renewed pressure on Netanyahu to slow judicial reform, but that failed to prevent Monday's vote.
Biden has made no secret of his concern that Netanyahu's coalition, the most far-right in Israel's history, threatens the independence of the judiciary.
Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption, insists that changes to the judiciary are needed to achieve balance between the branches of government.
Biden is not Barack Obama. He had a front row seat and watched what happens when the American president decides to attack Israel, said Aaron David Miller
Complicating matters, Tom Nides ended his term as ambassador to Israel last Sunday, leaving the US without its top diplomat on the ground.
Biden is expected to tread carefully to see if Netanyahu will follow through on his promise and seek a deal with the opposition on further judicial reform in late November.
What Biden is likely to avoid is the kind of response that could make the relationship between him and Netanyahu as intolerant as it was between the Israeli prime minister and Barack Obama.
As Obama's vice president, Biden witnessed firsthand the strained relationship between Obama and Netanyahu over the 2015 international nuclear deal Obama brokered with Iran, as well as US displeasure over Israeli settlement expansion on occupied land the Palestinians want for their own state. .
"Biden is not Barack Obama," said Miller, now an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. "He had a front row seat and watched what happens when the American president decides to attack Israel."
Translation: N. Bogetić
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