A delegation from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is expected to arrive in Niger to negotiate with the military junta that ousted the president on July 26.
Representatives of the bloc could arrive in Niger's capital Niamey as early as today, and the United Nations Special Representative for West Africa and the Sahel, Leonard Santosh Simao, has been there since Friday.
UN spokesman Stefan Dižarik said on Friday that Simao will meet with the junta to try to facilitate a quick and peaceful solution to the crisis in Niger.
"We want a return to the constitutional order, the release of the president and his family and the return of his legitimate authority," Dižarik said.
EKOVAS announced today that it has set a date for the start of military intervention "if diplomatic efforts with Niger fail", but did not announce when that might be.
After a two-day meeting of the chiefs of the armed forces of the bloc's member states in Accra, the capital of Ghana, EKOVAS announced that military action would be "the last resort to restore democracy to Niger."
Immediately after the coup, EKOVAS gave the junta seven days to release and restore President Bazum to power, but the deadline came and went without any action.
"The coup plotters will not hold their breath this time either because of a renewed threat of military action," said Ulf Lessing, head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
Rebel soldiers are consolidating their rule and installing loyal commanders in key units, while EKOVAS has no experience with military operations in enemy territory and would not have local support if it tried to intervene, he said.
"Niger is a very fragile country that, in case of military intervention, can easily turn into a failed state like Sudan," Lessing said.
EKOVAS used force to restore order in member countries. In Gambia, he intervened in 2017 after the long-time president Yahya Jammeh refused to step down even though he lost the presidential election. But even so, the move involved diplomatic efforts led by the then presidents of Mauritania and Guinea, while Jammeh appeared to be acting on his own as the Gambian military pledged allegiance to the election winner, Adama Barrow.
Now many residents of Niamey, Niger's capital, say they are preparing to retaliate against EKOVAS's intervention.
On Saturday, thousands of people in Niamey lined up outside the main stadium to register as volunteer fighters and to help other needs in case the junta needed support. Some parents brought their children to register, others said they had been waiting since three o'clock in the morning, while groups of young people loudly cheered for the junta and against EKOVAS and the former colonial ruler - France.
The humanitarian crisis in Niger is also on the agenda of the United Nations Special Representative for West Africa and the Sahel.
Before the coup, nearly three million people were facing severe food shortages and hundreds of thousands were internally displaced, according to the international humanitarian group KER (CARE). The economic and transport sanctions introduced by EKOVAS after the coup, combined with the deterioration of security, will have dire consequences for the population, said the group.
Earlier, Western countries saw Niger as one of the last democratic countries with which they could ally in the fight against a growing jihadist insurgency linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State group and poured millions of dollars in military aid to bolster Niger's forces.
Last Sunday, at least 17 soldiers were killed and 20 wounded in an ambush by jihadists. It was the first major attack on Niger's army in six months. A day later, at least 50 civilians in the Tillaberi region were killed by extremists believed to be members of the Islamic State group, according to an internal security report for aid groups seen by the AP.
"While Niger's leaders are preoccupied with politics in the capital, deadly jihadist attacks continue in the countryside," said Corinne Dufka, a political analyst specializing in the Sahel region.
"The recent attacks should motivate all parties to work towards a swift and inclusive transition of power to return to the crucial work of protecting civilians from the devastating effects of war. Niger and its partners should carefully consider why and how democracy in Niger has weakened," she said.
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