France's decision to withdraw 1500 troops from Niger leaves a gaping hole in Western efforts to counter a decade-long Islamist insurgency and, analysts and diplomats say, could give a boost to Russian influence in West Africa.
Niger was the last key Western ally in the central Sahel region, south of the Sahara, until a July 26 coup that brought to power a military junta that asked France to leave the country.
French forces have already been expelled from neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso after coups in those countries, which weakened Paris's influence in the former colonies due to anti-French sentiment, Reuters reminds.
Now the influence of that country, which only two years ago stretched over hundreds of thousands of square kilometers, has practically disappeared.
"The public in West African countries is increasingly suspicious of the Western military presence," said Mukadid Durmaz, an analyst at London-based risk assessment firm Verisk Maplecroft. "French withdrawal from Niger will push Western troops even further from the central Sahel".
The withdrawal, announced by French President Emmanuel Macron in a televised address on Sunday evening, was welcomed by Niger, whose junta described the move as "a new step towards Niger's sovereignty". "Imperialist forces are no longer welcome on our national territory," the announcement states.
But it worries security analysts and diplomats who say growing instability in Mali and Burkina Faso after coups there is a sign of what lies ahead in Niger, where extremists have already killed hundreds of civilians in recent years. From December, French aerial reconnaissance will no longer be possible, as well as intelligence activities or support on the ground.
The junta in Mali has teamed up with the mercenaries of the Russian Wagner group, which the United Nations accuses of violating human rights. Russia is also eyeing the leader in Burkina Faso.
USA on the move
Now, as Reuters points out, a lot depends on the moves of the United States.
The US has invested about 200 million in drone bases in the north of Niger, where there are more than 1000 soldiers who monitor the entrances of migrants, smugglers and extremists in the Sahara towards Libya.
The United States refused to call the change of government in Niger a coup, which means that Washington wants to avoid breaking relations for now. "We have not significantly changed the positions of our forces," US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said last Monday in Nairobi. Washington wanted a peaceful solution and "the preservation of Niger's democratically elected government," he added.
Unlike France, American forces do not actively participate with Niger's forces in the fight against Islamic extremists and could be open to cooperation within the framework of the transition to civilian administration, the British agency points out. However, the west would be present at least on land if they stay.
Niger is considered “an important center for intelligence gathering and security assistance. I don't think they will give up on that," Nathaniel Powell, an analyst for West Africa at the consulting firm Oxford Analytics, told Reuters.
This is a different Africa now. This is Africa that has woken up and stood up. France, which is said to be a rule of law country... is acting like a total gangster
In an election year, it is unlikely that US President Joe Biden will be willing to provide an opportunity for comparison with the withdrawal of Americans from Afghanistan, he said.
Just two weeks ago, Macron gave a fiery speech to his ambassadors, promising to defend Niger's democracy.
A different Africa
However, his position became untenable. This month, the French ambassador was detained at the embassy in Niamey after Macron ignored a deadline set by the junta for his departure. Tens of thousands of people gathered outside a French military base in the capital demanding that French troops leave the country. Demonstrators burned French flags and highlighted Russian ones.
“This is a different Africa now. This is Africa that has woken up and stood up," Niamey resident Aisami Tciroma told Reuters. "France, which is said to be a rule of law country...behaves like a total gangster".
Last week, during an interview on inflation, gasoline and immigration, Macron said that Niger no longer wants to fight terrorism and that France will withdraw because of this. The ambassador also left that country.
This is very different from the time in 2013 when France, to the delight of the local population, defeated the Islamist fighters who had taken control of northern Mali.
"In my view, it's more a sign of defeat for the French than anything else," said Nathaniel Powell of Oxford Analytics.
France doesn't have many options. One would be to send troops to neighboring Chad, where there are already about 1000 soldiers.
However, Chad is hundreds of kilometers away from the center of the jihadist insurgency and has its own security problems, and the French are not looked upon favorably in that country either.
As part of changing its strategy in the region, Paris is asking for European help. However, European allies have no particular desire to help France, four diplomats familiar with the situation in the Sahel told Reuters.
Countries that once offered to send troops to Mali, primarily from Eastern Europe, now do not want to, given the current war in Ukraine. Many of them did not even know that Macron would announce the withdrawal from Niger.
Two diplomats said that European partners, such as Italy and Germany, whose soldiers provide support in the form of training and logistics, are not willing to withdraw from Niger.
Their reluctance is linked to the growing migrant crisis in Europe. Many migrants cross the Niger before reaching the Mediterranean Sea via the Sahara. Severing ties with Niamey would significantly thwart the provision of those routes, they said.
"The Macron administration has faced numerous setbacks on the African continent since 2017, but none of them have led to a rethink of strategy, thinking or personnel," said Jalil Harchaoui, a fellow at the Royal Armed Forces Research Institute in London.
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