Volodymyr Zelensky says there is no "expiry date" on Ukraine's readiness to fight Russia. However, the potential shelf life of American support for his cause is increasingly difficult to ignore.
Matt Getz, the ultra-MAGA (Make America Great Again) Republican who led the push Tuesday to oust Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker, cited an alleged secret deal McCarthy made with Joe Biden to continue funding Ukraine. This was despite the fact that McCarthy cut $XNUMX billion in aid to Ukraine from the deal last weekend to avoid a US government shutdown. For Zelenskiy, it was the culmination of several gloomy days. Even assuming the next president is sympathetic to Ukraine, he would be in an even weaker position than McCarthy.
The Republican Party has been moving in the direction of Russia for some time. More than eight in 10 Republican voters now support candidates — Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramasemi — who would end aid to Ukraine. About half of Americans also want it stopped. For the first time since the 1920s, Americans will likely have the option next year to put an isolationist in the White House. That would be a fateful choice.
The label "isolationist" is often misused. This does not automatically mean neutrality in conflicts between foreigners, although that sentiment was a feature of the American republic at its birth. It can also mean bias towards one side. Charles Lindbergh, who headed the America First Committee in the early stages of World War II, clearly expressed sympathy for Nazi Germany. All sorts of supporters - pacifists, businessmen and anti-Semites - sided with him.
More than eight in 10 Republican voters now support candidates who would end aid to Ukraine
Today's growing isolationism is not a matter of indifference when it comes to Russia and Ukraine; its driving force comes from Republicans sympathetic to Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Others are marginalized or pushed out. In an effort to keep his job, McCarthy declined Zelensky's request to address Congress when he was in Washington two weeks ago. Mitch McConnell, the leader of the Republicans in the Senate, last Saturday tried to pass a special law that would restore funding to Ukraine. He was blocked by his Republican colleagues.
The two American sides largely agree that China represents the main challenge to American hegemony. Russia, however, is a real-time arsonist in the Western neighborhood. The roots of American isolationism were about avoiding involvement with Europe. It didn't have much to say about the rest of the world. Lindbergh volunteered in the Pacific after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. The country's postwar isolationists, led by Senator Robert Taft, opposed the creation of NATO in 1949, but were outraged by America's failure that same year to stop the Chinese Communist Revolution.
"Who lost China?" was the isolationist rallying cry. A similar pattern is visible today. Republican isolationists say the war in Ukraine is diverting America's focus from the real threat in China. Ramaswamy calls Zelensky "their pope" - pointing to his pro-Ukrainian colleagues. Beijing, on the other hand, wants to turn Americans into "Chinese serfs".
Today's overblown fears about China's intentions sound more like a rerun of the McCarthyist-style "Red Scare" of the 1950s than a balanced assessment of the current risks to America
The immediate threat assessment points to Moscow. Putin has been vocal about his plans to reestablish the Russian world. He dismembered Georgia in 2008, seized Crimea in 2014, launched an invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and then annexed four Ukrainian regions.
The last time Chinese forces invaded another country was Vietnam in 1979 and it went badly. Today's overblown fears about China's intentions sound more like a rerun of the McCarthyist-style "Red Scare" of the 1950s than a balanced assessment of the current risks to America.
History tells us that isolationists usually do not succeed. However, they can change its course at key time periods. The Senate's defeat of Woodrow Wilson's League of Nations in 1920 removed America from the European chessboard for two decades. Regimes that posed a profound threat to America filled the vacuum. Americans then, as they do now, understandably felt that Europe needed to put its own house in order. America has supplied Ukraine with the lion's share of Western equipment and intelligence. Few, however, would bet on Europe taking on the role of isolationist America.
To keep the US in the game, Biden must somehow muster enough Republican votes in the coming weeks to restore funding to Ukraine. The absence of a major Ukrainian military breakthrough makes his job much more difficult. As well as the fact that the MAGA base today demonizes Zelensky almost as much as George Soros. And then there is the presidential election next year. An advocate of an America-first policy in the White House could sink Ukraine's prospects. Trump, as always, is Putin's last straw.
The article is taken from "Financial Times"
Translation: A.Š.
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