Russia is enjoying, and partly encouraging chaos in a series of global hotspots that are diverting the West's energy away from Ukraine, writes the "Politiko" portal.
In the article "Hamas' gift to Vladimir Putin", it is stated that the brutal attack by Palestinian militants on Israel took place on the Kremlin leader's birthday.
"Such a catastrophic security shock in the Middle East was probably a welcome surprise for the Russian president, whose strategic priority is to divert the support and attention of the West from Ukraine. A huge fire in Israel risks just that," the analysis of the Brussels portal states.
The big question, it added, is how much credit should be given to the Kremlin for the perfect storm of growing crises in Israel, Kosovo, the Caucasus and Africa, which are affecting America and Europe.
Although Putin did not ignite all these crises, he will now be happy to add fuel to the fire and turn them to his advantage because he enjoys the chaos, Politico assesses, stating that Kremlin propagandists are already spreading the narrative that the Middle East war is a victory for Russia and that it will dry up money for Ukraine.
The Hamas attack was probably the best birthday present for Putin, an EU diplomat said. He expressed hope that this would not have a dramatic effect on support for Ukraine
Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia, told the New York Times that Russian propagandists who see the Hamas attack as a boon for Russia may be right.
The Kremlin is "passively now at least benefiting from the conflict," Gabuev said, if only because senior officials in Washington may have less time to focus on how best to help Ukraine.
A European Union diplomat told Politico that an attack on Israel would be a distraction, "given the natural focus of the United States of America on Israel."
"It was probably the best birthday present for Putin," said the diplomat. He expressed hope that this would not have a dramatic effect on support for Ukraine, but added:
"Of course, a lot will depend on the length of the conflict in the Middle East. If we really want to be a geopolitical European Union, we have to be able to deal with multiple crises at the same time."
Charles K. Brown, the new head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, in his first visit as the top American general, needs to convince European allies that Washington is committed to supporting Ukraine, despite the political chaos in Congress and the crisis in the Middle East.
Braun arrived in Brussels yesterday for the monthly meeting of the Contact Group for Support of Ukraine. He was joined last night by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Reuters reported.
President Joe Biden's administration has repeatedly emphasized its support for Ukraine and is expected to announce a new arms package for Kiev while military leaders are in Brussels.
However, the House of Representatives, which holds the key to future aid, is currently without a leader. Chairman Kevin McCarthy was fired last week, three days after he left out additional aid to Ukraine in addition to the US government's operating measures. The next president can cancel additional aid to Ukraine before the proposal comes before the House of Representatives if that person opposes the idea, Reuters writes.
Some European officials have openly expressed concern that infighting in Congress has blocked funding for Ukraine, but many have also said they are confident the Biden administration will find ways to continue sending aid.
The Kremlin emphasizes ties on both sides
Putin said yesterday that the explosion of violence between Israel and the Palestinians showed the failure of US policy in the Middle East, and the Kremlin said it was in contact with both warring parties.
Putin's spokesman said Moscow would seek to play a role in resolving the conflict, but did not specify how.
"I think many people will agree with me that this is a vivid example of the failure of US policy in the Middle East," Putin told Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad al-Sudani in the Kremlin.
The Russian leader said the US was trying to "monopolize" international peace efforts and accused Washington of neglecting to seek compromises acceptable to both sides.
He added that the US has ignored the interests of the Palestinians, including their need for an independent state.
While Moscow's support for the Palestinian cause dates back to Soviet times, Putin has balanced this by establishing strong ties with Israel.
He did not mention Russia's role in the Middle East peace process yesterday. Together with the US, the United Nations and the European Union, since 2002 it has been part of the Quartet of Powers tasked with helping to mediate.
Israeli forces are striking Gaza in the fiercest airstrikes in the 75-year history of the conflict with the Palestinians, in response to a wave of deadly attacks by Hamas over the weekend. Moscow has said it is concerned the violence could escalate into a wider conflict in the Middle East.
While Moscow's support for the Palestinian cause dates back to Soviet times, Putin has balanced this by establishing strong ties with Israel
Since the latest crisis erupted, the Kremlin has emphasized strong relations with both sides.
Moscow has long-standing ties to the Palestinians, including Hamas, which last sent a high-level delegation to Moscow for talks in March. But it also has "a lot in common" with Israel, including the fact that many Israelis are former Russian citizens, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
"Therefore, we maintain relations with both sides of the conflict. We make contacts and participate in all, unfortunately few, formats that seek a common language for a solution and that do not work very efficiently," he said.
"But regardless, we intend to continue making efforts to play a role in terms of helping to find a way to a solution."
Flirting with Hamas and supporting the Palestinians also help Putin in his efforts to present himself as an important player in the global realignment against the West, along with China and Iran, Politico estimates. He said a few days ago that Russia's intention is to "build a new world", blaming the West for the war in Ukraine, and said that the conflict is about "principles on which the new world order will be based".
"Politico" writes that Iran, Russia's ally and main overseas military supplier, certainly also wants a new world order, but it is debatable how directly Tehran gives concrete orders to Hamas.
Flirting with Hamas and supporting the Palestinians are helping Putin to cast himself as an important player in the global realignment against the West, along with China and Iran.
Norman Ruhl, a former senior US intelligence official, suspects that Tehran was involved in the operational planning of the attack. But that "misunderstands how Iran functions and its role and how it uses intermediaries," he told Politico. Iran "creates Frankenstein's monster, then unleashes it on the countryside."
Peskov said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's comments that it is in Russia's interest to foment war in the Middle East in order to weaken global unity have "absolutely no basis".
"It is a long-term conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which has very deep roots, many deep contradictions. Many people know the background of the story, but it is so deep that not everyone knows the nuances," he said.
Peskov triumphantly asserted that Ukraine's funding would now inevitably decrease.
"The process of pumping the regime in Kiev with weapons from a factual, emotional, financial, technological point of view will enter a downward trend," the Kremlin spokesman said.
Sensing the threat that the West might lose focus on Kiev, Zelensky emphasizes that Iran and Russia are close allies, and presents the fight against Russia and the fight against Islamist militants as one and the same.
"Israeli journalists who were here in Ukraine, in Bucha, are now saying that they saw the same evil where Russia came. The same evil. The only difference is that there is a terrorist organization that attacked Israel, and here is a terrorist state that attacked Ukraine".
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