The race for the Republican Party's 2024 presidential nomination was crowded to begin with, but has suddenly dwindled to just a handful of viable candidates.
A day after South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott surprised even his own aides when he abruptly dropped out of the race, it remains unclear whether the Republican Party is any closer to rallying behind a candidate who is a clear alternative to former President Donald Trump.
Instead, the battle for second place appears to be intensifying, between Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, and Ron Desantis, the governor of Florida. Some less popular candidates are still struggling to stay relevant even as they face increasing pressure to drop out of the race.
Meanwhile, Trump's team is having fun cheering on the battle for second place, just two months before Iowa's Jan. 15 primary.
Good signs appeared for Nikki Haley, whose popularity grew during the race even before Tim Scott, her rival from the same state, South Carolina, suddenly announced his withdrawal.
Billionaire investor Stanley Drakenmiller, who has donated money to Scott, pledged his support for Haley in an interview Monday when he spoke for the first time about the 2024 race. He stressed the need for the Republican Party to unite and support the former UN ambassador before primary elections begin.
"I hope the field will clear and it will be Nikki Haley in a one-on-one race with the former president," Drakenmiller told The Associated Press.
However, Ron Desantis shows no intention of retiring, and is concentrating on caucuses in Iowa. His spokesman, Andrew Romeo, says he has a new shot in Iowa after Sen. Scott and former Vice President Mike Pence dropped out of the race. He pointed to an influential group of religious conservatives in Iowa who like Desantis' strong opposition to abortion and LBGTQ rights as part of his aggressive war on "political correctness."
Last week, Desantis scored the biggest point of the 2024 campaign so far, when he was endorsed by Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, who could help her Florida counterpart thanks to her popularity among ordinary citizens and the statewide political machine.
"Tim Scott and Mike Pence have sought to attract evangelicals, and unlike Nikki Haley, Ron Desantis is winning over those voters," Romeo says. "In the coming weeks, those voters will see that Nikki Haley's resume and values don't match her rhetoric. "
The rivalry between Haley and Desantis shows how quickly the 2024 Republican race has deflated compared to the last time Trump ran for the nomination.
At this time in the 2016 primary election season, 13 Republican candidates were still participating in the two-night debate. The 2024 primary season began with eight Republicans participating in the first debate in August, and only four are expected to qualify for next month's debate in Alabama: Haley, Desantis, conservative entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgham and former Arkansas Gov. Ace Hutchinson did not qualify for the previous debate although they remain in the race. Pence, who realized he would not qualify for the last debate, suspended his campaign.
Trump's team is rejoicing over the rivalry between Nikki Haley and Ron Desantis, who are currently focused on each other, while the former president remains the overwhelming favorite in the race for the Republican nomination.
Privately, Trump aides believe Haley stands to gain the most short-term political benefits from Tim Scott's exit from the race, but they also believe Trump will only increase his already sizable lead.
Trump's staff released a statement Monday commenting on Nikki Haley's plan to invest $10 million in a political advertising campaign across Iowa and New Hampshire in early December to gain an advantage over Desantis. "She's gaining momentum and he's dropping like a rock," the Trump campaign said.
Meanwhile, many are still reeling from Tim Scott's sudden decision to suspend the campaign. The South Carolina senator and the only remaining African-American in the Republican race surprised much of his staff when he announced the decision in an interview with Fox News on Sunday night. After the public announcement, Scott explained his decision in a private conversation with staff, an anonymous senior aide told The Associated Press, who said Scott's campaign staff got the impression that voters were not ready to support anyone but Trump.
And while some hope the race will quickly narrow to find an alternative to Trump, Devin O'Malley, a Republican strategist who served as an adviser to Pence's campaign, warned that unity behind one candidate as an alternative to Trump is just one challenge for Republicans who want to defeat Trump. He warned that narrowing the process would lead to more "toxic" confrontations with the former president.
“As soon as others drop out of the race, Trump's wrath will be concentrated on just one candidate. He's going to tire those people out," says O'Malley. "The need to respond to him, to compete with his insults and attacks is exhausting. I don't think Haley and Desantis are ready for that."
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