Israel risks facing a protracted and bloody insurgency if it defeats Hamas and occupies Gaza without a credible post-war plan to withdraw its troops and move toward the creation of a Palestinian state, according to US and Arab officials, diplomats and analysts.
None of the ideas floated so far by Israel, the US and Arab states for the post-war governance of Gaza has gained traction, according to two US and four regional officials as well as four diplomats familiar with the talks, raising fears that the Israeli military could be stuck in a protracted stalemate. security operation.
As Israel tightens its ring around northern Gaza, some officials in Washington and Arab capitals fear it is ignoring the lessons of the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, when quick military victories were followed by years of violent conflict.
If Gaza's Hamas-led government is ousted, its infrastructure destroyed and its economy destroyed, the radicalization of an angry population could fuel an uprising against Israeli troops on the enclave's streets, diplomats and officials say.
Israel, the US and many Arab states agree that Hamas should be ousted after it carried out a cross-border attack on October 7 that killed around 1.200 people and took around 240 hostages. But there is no consensus on who should replace him.
Arab countries and Western allies say the reformed Palestinian Authority (PA), which partially governs the West Bank, is a natural candidate for a bigger role in Gaza, home to about 2,3 million people.
But the authority's credibility, led by the Fatah party of 87-year-old President Mahmoud Abbas, has been undermined by the loss of control of Gaza to Hamas in the 2007 conflict, its failure to stop the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and allegations of widespread corruption and incompetence.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last weekend that the PA in its current form should not take control of Gaza. He said that the Israeli army is the only force that has the capacity to eliminate Hamas and ensure that terrorism does not re-emerge. Following Netanyahu's comments, Israeli officials maintained that Israel does not intend to occupy the Gaza Strip.
Muhamed Dahlan, who was the PA's security chief for Gaza until it lost control of the enclave to Hamas and has been tipped as the future leader of the post-war government there, said Israel is wrong to believe that tightening control over Gaza will end the conflict.
"Israel is an occupying power and the Palestinian people will treat it as an occupying power," Dahlan said in his office in Abu Dhabi, where he now lives. "None of the Hamas leadership or fighters will surrender. They will blow themselves up, but they will not surrender."
Dahlan has the backing of the influential United Arab Emirates to lead a post-war administration in Gaza, according to diplomats and Arab officials. But he said that no one, certainly not him, would want to come to govern a devastated territory with no clear political path in sight.
"I haven't seen Israel, America or the international community have any vision," Dahlan said, calling on Israel to end the war and begin serious negotiations on a two-state solution.
Muhammad Dahlan says Israel is wrong to believe that tightening control over Gaza will end the conflict
US President Joe Biden warned Netanyahu on Wednesday that occupying Gaza would be a "big mistake". So far, the US and its allies have seen no clear road map for Israel's exit strategy from Gaza beyond the declared goal of destroying Hamas, diplomats say. US officials are pressing Israel to present realistic goals and a plan to achieve them.
While insisting on Israel's right to defend itself, some U.S. officials worry that high civilian casualties could radicalize more Palestinians and encourage new fighters to join Hamas or future militant groups that might emerge to replace it, according to a source familiar with the U.S. policy making.
Gazans interviewed by Reuters said the Israeli invasion is creating a new generation of militants. Abu Muhammad (37), a civil servant from the Jabaliya refugee camp, said he would rather die than face Israeli occupation.
"I am not Hamas, but in the days of war, we are all one people, and if they kill the fighters, we will take our guns and fight," he told Reuters. "The Israelis can occupy Gaza, but they will never feel safe, not even a day."
Washington's talks on a post-war plan for Gaza are still in the early stages with the PA, other Palestinian stakeholders and allies, including Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, two US officials said on condition of anonymity.
"We certainly haven't gotten there yet in terms of any effort to sell that vision to our regional partners who will ultimately have to live with it or implement it," said one senior US diplomat.
Biden insists the war must end with a "vision" for a two-state solution - one that would unite the Gaza Strip and the West Bank into a Palestinian state - but neither he nor his top aides have offered details on how they expect to achieve that or proposed re- initiation of negotiations.
I am not Hamas, but in the days of war, we are all one people, and if they kill the fighters, we will take our guns and fight. Israelis can occupy Gaza, but they will never feel safe, not for a day
Some experts believe that there is little chance of success in any attempt to restart negotiations, primarily because of the resentment of Israelis after the terrorist actions of Hamas on October 7 and Palestinians because of Israeli retaliation in Gaza.
"Among the many tragedies of the Hamas terrorist attack is that it fundamentally undermined and set back the Palestinian goal of establishing a sovereign, independent state," said Jonathan Panikoff, a former US deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East who now works for the Atlantic Council.
Biden could decide on a more modest initiative that would include the creation of a path to the eventual continuation of negotiations, a person familiar with the situation told Reuters. Biden's aides are aware that Netanyahu and his far-right coalition, which rejects the idea of Palestinian state sovereignty, are not exactly willing to renew talks.
As he seeks re-election next year, Biden may not want to alienate pro-Israel voters by giving the impression that he is pressuring Netanyahu to make concessions to the Palestinians.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, in a speech last Sunday in Tokyo, explained what the red lines are for Washington in Gaza, saying that the administration opposes the forced displacement of Palestinians, any type of territorial reduction, occupation or blockade by Israel. He also said that it cannot become a platform for terrorism.
Blinken has said on several occasions that Washington would like to see the reformed Palestinian Authority eventually manage the Gaza Strip, united with the West Bank. Under Abbas, who has led the administration since 2005, its credibility has declined as the promise of a path toward a two-state solution outlined in the 1993 Oslo peace accords has faded.
A change in dynamics is necessary, US officials said. Perhaps a change of leadership within the PU is possible, within which Abbas could remain in an honorary role, some diplomats said. A second step is also being considered, in which the PU would get a key role in the distribution of post-war aid to Gaza in order to revive its legitimacy, said a senior European diplomat.
When asked about these discussions, a senior PU official said that the Administration's return to Gaza is the only acceptable scenario and that it is being discussed with the US and other Western powers. He declined to comment on the suggestion that Dahlan or someone else lead the Palestinian government.
Some senior Palestinian officials, including Prime Minister Muhammad Staeh, have said that the Palestinian Authority will not return to power in Gaza on Israeli tanks.
The proposal for a two-year transitional administration of technocrats in Gaza, which would be supported by the UN and the Arab powers, was presented by some Western partners and Middle Eastern countries, diplomats said. But there is resistance from key Arab governments, including Egypt, which do not want to be drawn into what they see as a Gaza nightmare, diplomats said.
Regional powers fear that Arab forces deployed in Gaza would have to use force against the Palestinians, and no Arab country wants to put its military in that position.
Although the aging Abbas is unpopular with many Palestinians, there is no agreement on who could replace him as the future leader.
Dahlan would probably be acceptable to Egypt and Israel. However, although he worked closely with the US while he was Gaza's security chief, an American source said that Washington has certain objections to his return to power. For years, he has been in hostile relations with Abbas and the inner circle of the PU, as well as with supporters of Hamas.
Dahlan led a series of arrests and operations against Hamas leaders in 1996 following a series of suicide bombings against Israel.
An official from the UEA said that Abu Dhabi would support all post-war arrangements agreed to by all parties in the conflict and supported by the United Nations in order to restore stability and achieve a two-state solution.
Marwan Barghouti, the Fatah leader who was sentenced to prison for murder in Israel in 2002, is popular among many Palestinians, but some in Washington do not see him as a practical solution since the Israeli government will not be willing to release someone they accuse of having "blood on the hands”.
One American official said that the choice of a leader will be a complex process since all regional players have their favorites and interests. In the end, Washington would favor any leader who wins the support of the Palestinian people and its regional allies, as well as Israel.
Not since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 has there been such widespread concern about any military action in the Middle East
"It is clear that the restoration of Palestinian leadership is desperately needed, but it is far from easy," said Justin R. Hilterman, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the International Crisis Group. He said that Arab countries can veto any candidate they don't like, and Hamas, which presents itself as a defender of Palestinian independence, would probably win the elections.
The stakes are high with the possibility of the conflict spilling over into the occupied West Bank and beyond Israel.
Not since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 has there been such widespread concern about any military action in the Middle East, Arab officials and diplomats said.
Regardless of what Biden decides to do diplomatically, his aides say he has no interest in the US taking a direct military role in the conflict, unless America's security interests are threatened by Iran or its regional proxies.
"There are no plans or intentions to deploy the US military on the ground in Gaza, now or in the future," John Kirby, the White House national security spokesman, told reporters last month.
Prepared by: A.Š., NB
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