Is there any possibility of peace between Israel and the Palestinians, or do we simply have to get used to periodic wars that deny both sides the peace and stability they seek?
It's easy to be pessimistic. The history of that region is full of failed peace plans, failed diplomatic conferences and completely disappointed mediators. Everything seems to have been tried and nothing has worked. Everyone blames anyone but themselves.
However, giving up diplomacy means accepting the unacceptable: eternal war. Because of this, even amid the horrors of the latest war in Gaza, talk of an eventual two-state solution is still alive and actually growing louder.
At a Nov. XNUMX press conference in Tel Aviv, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken went further in outlining a permanent solution than any US official has in a long time - if ever. A two-state solution, he said, is "the only guarantor of a secure, Jewish and democratic Israel; the only guarantor of the Palestinians' legitimate right to live in their own state, to enjoy equal measures of security, freedom, opportunity and dignity; the only way to end the cycle once and for all of violence."
Blinken is right. Ensuring "an equal measure of safety, freedom, opportunity and dignity" for everyone between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea is the only final solution. European leaders recognized this reality as early as 1980 with the Venice Declaration. Nine members of the European Community (at the time) declared that "the Palestinian people, aware of their existence as such, must be placed in a position, through the appropriate process defined within a comprehensive peace settlement, to fully exercise their right to self-determination."
By then, Arab governments had given up trying to erase the state of Israel. After their failure in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, they finally agreed to make peace. But, as the Venice Declaration acknowledged, true regional peace will not be possible until the Palestinian issue is resolved.
Ensuring "an equal measure of safety, freedom, opportunity and dignity" for everyone between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea is the only final solution
During the optimistic early 1990s, the Oslo accords showed what was possible. Palestine Liberation Organization President Yasser Arafat (former terrorist) and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin (former general) shook hands on the White House lawn. The path to a two-state solution has been established, even if key details remain to be worked out.
But the Oslo process ultimately collapsed, due to simmering opposition between Israelis and Palestinians. Earlier optimism gave way to Palestinian terrorism and illegal Israeli settlements, and the situation has been deteriorating ever since. While successive US administrations have repeatedly tried to revive the peace process, none have made it a top priority. Until October 7, the Biden administration was putting the issue aside, hoping the region would remain calm while it concentrated on other issues.
The European Union, for its part, has long maintained a commitment to the Middle East peace process and issued a detailed statement in December 2009 calling for "a two-state solution with the State of Israel and the independent, democratic, contiguous and viable State of Palestine, living side by side in peace and issuing security." However, Europe's interest in this issue has also waned over time. Although there were various reasons for this, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's consistent efforts to prevent serious peace negotiations certainly played a significant role.
Moreover, politicians in America, Europe, and Israel began to convince themselves that the Palestinian issue could simply be forgotten, as more and more Arab countries began to establish formal diplomatic relations with Israel. "If the Arab world no longer cares about the Palestinians," they thought, "why should we?"
Now that the political deadlock and humanitarian disaster in Gaza have brought this issue back to the forefront, it is clear that there can be no solution without some decisive steps towards a two-state solution.
However, one should have no illusions. The obstacles are enormous. One of the most troubling is the apparent rise in support for violence among Palestinians who have become frustrated to the point of desperation. Hamas is not the only organization that sees terror as the best way forward. In the West Bank, too, the Palestinian Authority has lost control over some areas in which it is supposed to ensure security and order.
Extremists on both sides want to control the entire land between the river and the sea by any means necessary. If either side is allowed to advance toward that goal, this war will become even more deadly than it already is
Another major obstacle is the inclusion of fundamentalist Jewish settlers in the current Israeli government. An estimated 700.000 people now live in illegal settlements scattered across the territory that should belong to a future Palestinian state. Many of these settlers are armed and since October 7 they have been forcibly evicting hundreds of Palestinians from their homes. Some even openly dream of demolishing the Dome of the Rock and the Al-Aqsa Mosque, in order to rebuild the biblical temple in Jerusalem (destroyed by the Babylonians in 587 BC and again by the Romans in 70 AD).
Extremists on both sides want to control the entire land between the river and the sea by any means necessary. If either side is allowed to advance toward that goal, this war will become even more deadly than it already is.
The key, then, is to use the renewed prospect of a two-state solution to galvanize moderate forces on both sides—and quickly, before more people succumb to fatalism or despair. Such a reopening will not happen without strong, sustained international engagement from the US, the EU and other Arab states. Given that Russia has excluded itself with a war of aggression against Ukraine, the international community will need a new format to replace the previous Middle East quartet (EU, US, United Nations and Russia).
Although upcoming elections in the US and elsewhere may divert attention next year, the issue should be a top priority thereafter. We must never give up diplomacy. Now we are reminded of what the alternative looks like.
Karl Bilt was the EU's special envoy for the former Yugoslavia, high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN special envoy for the Balkans and co-chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference.
project-syndicate.org
Prepared by: A. Šofranac
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