The demographic picture of America today is more ethnically and racially diverse than ever before. This was shown by the results of the last census in the United States of America, which was held three years ago.
Although the next one isn't until 2030, preparations are well underway, Thomas Wolfe, deputy director of the Democracy Program and founder of the Census Project at the Brennan Center for Justice, a progressive nonprofit institute, told VOA.
"The full census is a massive undertaking because more than 330 million people need to be enumerated. It is essentially known as the US government's largest peacetime undertaking. Outside of wartime, there is no such large-scale mobilization. Therefore, planning for any census begins more than a decade in advance. ", Wulf points out.
The census in America is held every ten years, and the first one was conducted in 1790. It is provided for by the Constitution, and citizens are obliged by law to participate. However, they are rarely penalized for refusing to provide their information, notes Terri Ann Lowenthal, a nationally recognized census expert and consultant.
"Our Bureau of Statistics prefers to use the carrot rather than the stick. . . . The Bureau is not charged with law enforcement and rarely asks the Justice Department to prosecute someone for not participating in the census. It prefers to do whatever it can to encourage households, families and individuals to respond, because an accurate census benefits every community, family, and person in the United States," said Lowenthal, a former official on the House Oversight Subcommittee of the Bureau of Statistics -- in charge of the census process.
The US Bureau of Statistics is part of the Bureau of Economic Affairs. It is made up of experts and, Lowenthal says, a lot of effort is put into protecting it from inadequate political interference – both when it comes to what questions will be asked, in what way, and how the census will be conducted.
Starting in 2010, the number of questions on the XNUMX-year census was significantly reduced, and over the years there have been political battles over what citizens should be asked. Congress has the final authority to decide on issues, but it has delegated it to the executive branch.
"The Bureau (of Statistics) creates a form, in consultation with the wing of the White House that sets statistical standards for the entire country. Then those forms are presented to the entire population so they can give their opinion on whether things are working or not. It's done and many tests, before the final formula is determined," explains Wolfe.
In the last one, in 2020, there were nine questions - from how many people live in the household, their age and gender to ethnicity and race. Additional demographic data - from language to citizenship to Internet access - is part of the American Community Survey, which, on a much smaller sample, is conducted between the two censuses.
"Race and ethnicity is one of the defining characteristics of our country because the Voting Rights Act guarantees equal representation to racial and ethnic minorities," notes Teri Ann Lowenthal.
Equal representation and problems in counting minorities
Data from the census is primarily used for the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives, and then also for the determination of constituencies in individual states. Based on the census, hundreds of billions of dollars in federal resources are distributed to local communities - for hospitals, fire departments, schools, roads and other critical programs and services, among other things. "The census is literally the foundation of our democratic system of government and respect for equal representation - one person, one vote, for all... Our census is like the air you breathe. It matters to everyone in America when it comes to decision-making, resource allocation, and fair play. and representation", assesses Lowental.
The census in America is political in nature, because the goal is to determine how many people there are in the American states and, based on that, to determine how many representatives they will have in the lower house of Congress. And everyone living in America must be equally represented, regardless of whether they have the right to vote.
Data that is collected - by mail, electronically or by phone, and sometimes door to door - is considered the gold standard in statistics. However, the census in America is never completely accurate and very similar problems are often present, says Thomas Wolfe.
"There is a problem that some groups are under-enumerated, while others are over-enumerated, namely white people, people with multiple houses, whose children go to college, or are enumerated in more than one place. Groups that are historically under-enumerated - and that's still the case - whether it's blacks, Hispanics or Latinos, young children, the homeless... Census numbers aren't abstract, they have to do with money and power... If your community isn't adequately censused compared to others, you're losing political representation."
Polarization and political influence
In addition to being inaccurate, the US census has historically been polarizing. Congress, says expert Terri Ann Lowenthal, even refused to accept the distribution of mandates based on the 1920 census because the results showed an increasing urbanization of the population. This, as he explains, would transfer a significant part of political power and influence from rural to industrial and urban areas.
A more recent example of controversy was the Trump administration's (former US President Donald Trump) attempt to include a citizenship question in the 2020 census at the last minute. The Supreme Court eventually ruled against the move, and Lowenthal was a witness in some of the cases brought before the country's highest court.
"A large body of research has shown that the issue creates an atmosphere of fear in many communities, especially immigrant communities, not only among the undocumented or stateless, but also in many mixed-status households. There are non-citizen parents whose children they have citizenship. They might avoid participating in the census because they fear that the information, their answers, could be turned over to immigration or even law enforcement... As a result, the census can be even less accurate," warns Lowenthal.
Thomas Wolfe accuses the Trump administration of political interference in the census.
"In addition to being illegal, it was abnormal, but it failed mainly because there are controls in the system. When it came to the citizenship question, there was information that suggested the Trump administration wanted that question to twist the data. in a way that would have benefited the Republican Party. That was stopped. Then they tried to speed up the census and shorten it. If that had worked, tens of millions of people would not have been enumerated."
A system of control, Wolff says, is crucial to avoid undue political influence.
"Different branches of government involved in the census must contribute, monitor each other, trust experts who are transparent and accountable. Education and public participation are also important. Do everything you can to ensure that they are counted ( list) and all your neighbors, friends, family, colleagues".
Transparency key to inventory, anywhere
The Bureau of Statistics itself has three methods to measure the accuracy of each census, including separate research done on a sample to - using scientific methods - compare the results and determine which groups are not sufficiently enumerated, by race, ethnicity, age, gender.
After the last census, the bureau itself reported that certain minorities were not sufficiently censused and that there was a gap between them and other communities when it comes to fair representation, resources and investments. This transparency is crucial for the census, regardless of the country in which it is conducted, according to Lowenthal.
"A fair and accurate census must be the goal of every country... Transparency is the best way citizens can ensure that the census process is based on science and that there is no impermissible political interference. The work of the Bureau of Statistics on research, testing, planning and preparation for The census must be transparent so that the public understands what is happening, participates in the decision-making process, and can help shape the process."
Sled enumerators
The official census day in America is April 1st. However, enumeration begins as early as January, in remote parts of Alaska, because the frozen terrain allows enumerators, sometimes in dog sleds, to go from door to door. The census takes several months, and the first results - crucial for the distribution of mandates in the House of Representatives - are published by the end of the census year.
The last census was held during the coronavirus pandemic, due to which the distribution of mandates was significantly delayed, while some of the final data were published only a few months ago.
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