As 2023 draws to a close, the parties to the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have signaled they expect the conflict to continue for much of next year, with dozens of countries, including the United States, heading to the polls.
About two billion people in at least 50 countries will hold elections in 2024, including India, Russia, Britain, the European Union, Africa, Asia and the Americas.
Some of those elections are more unpredictable than others, and there are few who think Vladimir Putin won't win another six-year term in Russia's presidential election in March, says Reuters columnist Peter Epps. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's fate is believed to be tied to the Gaza war, and many expect him to be ousted as soon as the war ends.
It remains unclear whether Ukraine will hold presidential elections in March.
However, Eps, like most Western analysts, points out that the elections that are of the greatest importance to the world are being held in November in the USA and it will be decided whether Donald Trump will return to the White House.
The difficulty of predicting who will win, as well as what a more unrestrained Trump might do while in office, helps in part to explain the dynamics of multiple conflicts around the world.
"Simply put, all parties want to position themselves as best they can before the November vote and possible changes in American foreign policy," Epps points out.
This, in his opinion, is a dynamic that says a lot about the state of international power, with increasingly aggressive rivals of the weakened but still powerful United States, whose internal politics seem increasingly insurmountable.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's pressure on Taiwan and the Philippines show that Moscow and Beijing are ready to use methods that until recently were almost unthinkable against Washington's allies.
The Biden administration interprets it as a deliberate test of American power, arguing that the US should stand behind its allies while avoiding unnecessary escalation. This has already turned out to be a challenge, Epps points out, adding that Israel's war in Gaza has shown how limited US influence can be. The Netanyahu government apparently believes it can operate in Gaza without losing broader US support.
Next year will be marked by a deep debate within the US about America's global role in the future, and the outcome of that debate will be anxiously watched by the rest of the world, believes Ivo Dalder, former US ambassador to NATO, and columnist for the "Politiko" portal.
He points out that for 80 years, the United States has accepted its role as global leader without much discussion about it. However, while the direction, and often the purpose of her leadership and involvement was widely discussed, the very need for such a role was rarely questioned. Presidents from both political parties believed that American security, prosperity, and freedom depended on strong security alliances, a commitment to free and open trade, and the defense of democracy and human rights. President Joe Biden is the embodiment of that approach, Dalder points out.
“However, for the first time since World War II, a growing majority of Republicans are turning against this traditional role. For the first time in the last 50 years of public opinion polls, more people believe that the US should stay out of world affairs, reflecting the view of the party's leading candidate for the presidential nomination, former President Trump," says Dalder and reminds that Trump, while in office, advocated an approach “America First,” a slogan that dates back to the isolationist sentiments of the 1930s.
“The world has become dependent on American global leadership. And while America's adversaries would welcome the U-turn, its friends fear the consequences for their security, prosperity and freedom. The future of the world rests to a large extent on this debate, and only American voters will be able to determine its outcome," said Dalder in a column for the Brussels portal.
Epps reminds Reuters that in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, objections are growing louder that the US and its European allies could have done more to arm the government in Kiev during 2023 and that now it may be too late to make significant progress in 2024.
These objections are likely to intensify given congressional Republican resistance to further US support and the real possibility that the Trump administration could cut off support for Kiev altogether and force it to seek peace.
Some also believe that Trump's victory in the elections could encourage Putin to further militarize the Russian economy and begin full mobilization in order to attack Ukraine even more ruthlessly.
Mujaba Rahman, head of the Eurasia Group's Europe practice, also points out that governments around the world are worried about the possibility of a second Trump presidency.
"The political structure of Congress is already threatening to block the government, which calls into question Washington's support for Ukraine. If President Joe Biden secures another mandate, Congress in this composition will continue to make America's global role uncertain. And if Trump wins, the risk is huge," says Rahman.
He states that in addition to the elections in the USA, the vote in the European Union and Great Britain will also have major political consequences in 2024, whether it is the war in Ukraine, China, the green transition, technology, trade or migration.
European Parliament elections in June and national policies across the bloc will shape the next European Commission. Eurosceptic populists will probably have the largest representation so far, although the existing coalitions of the center-left, liberals and social democrats and green groups will probably be maintained, according to Rahman.
In his view, pragmatic elections will provide some continuity, but growing populist and economic pressures across the 27 member states will complicate the decision-making process.
June's European parliamentary elections will be closely watched for signs of further growth in support for far-right parties, especially after Prime Minister Mark Rutte lost his majority in the November elections in the Netherlands. Some expect him to leave Dutch politics and potentially take over from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the July summit in Washington.
Far-right victories would be positive for Putin, especially after Slovakia ended support for Ukraine after nationalist and populist Robert Fico won elections in September.
In Britain, where Labor leader Keir Starmer is expected to win an election due in 2024, the new government may hope to win over close allies by following the example of Canada and Germany and committing more forces to Eastern Europe . Overall, however, concerns about a possible US withdrawal are likely to increase the influence and strategic importance of the rearmament of major European governments, particularly those in Warsaw and Berlin.
Relations with the EU will continue to improve, as will London's global credibility, but it will not go smoothly, Rahman believes. He says Starmer will have to show he is a real leader who can resolve intra-party divisions and prove skeptics wrong about Britain's biggest problem: the rotten economy.
Epps predicts a victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the April and May elections in India, and points out that, more broadly, elections in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia are seen as potentially part of a growing trend towards authoritarianism across Asia and the world.
Most analysts agree that the decisions of Western voters next year will shape politics both at home and abroad. Every year in the 2020s so far has brought some kind of shock - we'll see if that trend continues in 2024.
The idea of peace
The word that will define the year 2024 is "peace" - but the idea of peace, not the reality, believes Elizabeth Bro, senior associate at the European Leadership Network. She stated for "Politiko" that peace will be something we will be looking for the most in the coming year.
"Peace is like good health: You don't appreciate it while you have it, but once it's gone, you realize how irreplaceable it is and you try with all your might to get it back. The question is: What exactly is peace? Is it Russia's withdrawal from Ukraine if it keeps Crimea and Donbass? Is it Israel's success in crushing Hamas, albeit at the cost of displacing hundreds of thousands of Gazans? Is it a China that does not invade Taiwan but continues to intimidate its politicians, businesses and citizens?” asks Bro.
"In the year ahead, we will try to solve these dilemmas and others like them, since the desire for peace will continue to grow simultaneously with tensions, crises and wars. Although most of us dream of more peace in the year ahead, new conflicts will probably break out", she concluded.
Cracking and breaking
The world has been breaking for some time. The climate crisis, covid-19, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war in the Middle East showed aspects of a new international system and contributed to its (un)creation, points out Natali Toči, director of the Institute for International Affairs and associate professor at the European University Institute.
"We are no longer debating whether the post-unipolar world that rested on American hegemony will strengthen multilateralism or not. Rather, we are aware that the world is simultaneously characterized by bipolarity between the US and China, multipolarity across Europe, India and Russia, and a vocal group of medium-sized states that align with various blocs. It is a world in which multilateralism is simply breaking down," says Toči.
She believes that global climate action is the biggest victim of the broken international order.
"Western leadership is exposed to a great risk of cracking, as the war in Ukraine has shown the cracks in the relations of many countries in the developing world, which have deepened as the war in the Middle East undermines the credibility of the West".
Toci also believes that if Trump returns to power in 2024, cracks and breakdowns will become a feature of American democracy as well as transatlantic relations.
"Then there is Europe, which often manages to seize its opportunity in crises, provided it remains united. However, with resistance to climate policies, divisions over fiscal and industrial policies, and new foreign policy disputes, the risk of a break is high here too," concludes Toči.
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