The war goals of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar appear unattainable in 2024, and their struggle may lead to further destruction of the Palestinian territory and indefinite Israeli occupation.
Netanyahu is seeking to destroy Hamas over the Oct. 7 attack, the bloodiest day in Israel's history, seemingly determined to raze much of Gaza and risk reimposing a military occupation of the enclave, which Israel abandoned in 2005.
Sinwar hopes to exchange the remaining 240 hostages seized by Hamas and allied groups on October 7 for thousands of Palestinian prisoners, ending the Israeli-Egyptian blockade of Gaza and putting Palestinian statehood back into play.
At first, Palestinians felt proud that Hamas fighters had shattered Israel's image of invincibility, but they soon realized that the attack would provoke a terrifying response.
Weeks of bombing have reduced much of the Hamas-ruled Strip to rubble, killing about 22.000 people according to Palestinian health authorities and displacing 1,9 million, according to aid agencies and Gaza health officials.
Hamas and thousands of its fighters are dug deep into the area's densely populated cities and refugee camps and show little sign that they are close to defeat, as battles continue across the enclave and their leaders are still at large.
The Israeli military has expressed regret over the civilian deaths, but accuses Hamas of operating in densely populated areas or of using civilians as human shields, which the group denies.
Israel's army chief predicts the war will last for months.
Even if the war ends early this year, Israel is likely to continue its military occupation, drawing the ire of allies as Palestinians suffer in tent cities squeezed along the enclave's border with Egypt.
So far, Israel's vision for post-war Gaza, most politicians and analysts say, is to emulate the model of the occupied West Bank, with a designated authority in charge of carrying out civilian affairs while Israel retains security control.
Netanyahu has yet to outline a plan for post-war Gaza, but his government has told leaders of several Arab states it wants to create a buffer zone to prevent a repeat of the Oct. 7 attack in which Israel says Hamas killed 1.200 people.
No Palestinian Authority acceptable to Israel appears capable of taking over anytime soon. Nor will Hamas cede control easily. Most Arab states are not willing to get involved. This means an extension of the Israeli occupation, an ongoing siege, and no real reconstruction.
Netanyahu and Israel face risks as troops are deployed in a dangerous urban war zone and the world public turns against them, but the risks for Sinwar may be even greater.
If Sinvar survives the attack, he will be left with an enclave in ruins, a battered or weakened military base, and a local population suffering from hunger and homelessness.
"I don't think there is much desire for anyone to occupy Gaza instead of the Israelis. So the realistic way forward, which I am not advocating at all, is re-occupation by Israel,” said Jost R. Hilterman, the International Crisis Group's program director for the Middle East and North Africa.
"It is very difficult to see how Israel could withdraw from Gaza," he said.
So far, Israel's vision for post-war Gaza, most politicians and analysts say, is to emulate the model of the occupied West Bank, with a designated authority in charge of civilian affairs while Israel retains security control.
The West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA), which Hamas kicked out of Gaza in 2007 when it took control, is unacceptable to Israel despite the insistence of its US ally.
Israel would instead prefer a multinational administration, including Arab allies, that includes a Palestinian council and technocrats, two regional politicians told Reuters.
"No one (Arab states) wants to take control of Gaza. Israel will deal with Gaza as the West Bank after the war. Israeli forces will come in and out as they please,” said Marwan al-Muasher, a former Jordanian foreign minister who is now vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
This could mean that the United Nations and aid agencies provide services inside Gaza until Washington persuades Israel to accept a reformed PA govern the territory or agree to some other arrangement.
"I do not believe that Israel would leave Gaza militarily. He would retain a security responsibility that will allow his forces to enter, attack, raid and arrest when they want and how they want,” said Ghassan Al Hatib, a Palestinian analyst.
"They don't want to leave Gaza militarily because Hamas will regroup. It will be a matter of time, a year, two or three, and things will return to their previous state," he added.
Netanyahu said Israel would maintain some form of security control over all of Gaza indefinitely, although he insisted it would not mean reoccupying the enclave.
I do not believe that Israel would leave Gaza militarily. He would retain a security responsibility that would allow his forces to enter, attack, raid and arrest when and how they want
Calling the war an existential test for Israel, he has repeatedly said the war will only end when Hamas' leaders and its military capabilities are eliminated.
A senior Israeli official told a briefing this month that Israel would not want Hamas or the PA to control Gaza after the fighting ends. Nor would he want to govern the lives of 2,2 million Palestinians in Gaza itself.
"On the contrary, we want to see a local administration, headed by Palestinians, a leadership that is able to work for the future and vision of the Palestinian people with the help of moderate Arab countries and the whole world," said the official.
“It might take a while,” he said.
Analysts say the eradication of Hamas is likely to result in thousands more civilian deaths, the decimation of what is left of Gaza, the further displacement of hundreds of thousands of Gazans and possibly a mass exodus to Egypt despite Cairo's objections.
Israel's insistence on eliminating Hamas may be undergoing a reassessment or a change in strategy. In the long term, two regional sources said, Israel could try more focused attacks on Hamas leaders or fighters.
However, eliminating the top commanders would not be enough for Israel to claim to have destroyed the group, to declare victory and end the war. Most of the Hamas leaders are already the successors of those killed by Israel earlier.
"The assassination of the leadership does not affect a movement that has a full organizational hierarchy and base. If they kill one, the other will take over their role, as we have seen before,” said Hatib.
Most analysts say it will be nearly impossible to eradicate Hamas' ideology, and recent polls show its popularity rising.
The war saw a wider deployment of US military forces in the region, including the presence of aircraft carriers. The longer it lasts and the more destruction there is, the greater the risk of regional escalation.
Fears of spillover are high, even as Iran and its militia allies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen have largely limited their support for Hamas to conducting low-intensity attacks against Israel and its ally the US.
Iran-allied Houthi rebels have attacked ships in the Red Sea, disrupting global trade routes. The group has vowed to attack US warships if its forces are attacked by Washington, which has established a coalition force to counter Houthi attacks.
The most dangerous hotspot is the border between Israel and Lebanon, where Iran-backed Hezbollah has been exchanging rocket fire and attacks with Israel since October 7.
While Israel has focused on the war in Gaza, it is also determined to push Hezbollah from its northern border and return tens of thousands of Israelis to homes evacuated by the Lebanese group's rocket fire, two regional sources said.
Extreme influence on Israeli society
There are now no signs that the war will revive stalled peace moves and lead to a two-state solution, as Washington hopes.
The October 7 attack, along with the testimonies of Hamas crimes, rapes and executions, shook Israel to its core, profoundly affecting any hope for peace or coexistence even among moderates.
In the West Bank, an increasing number of Israeli army raids, renewed settler violence, confiscation of Palestinian land and the imprisonment of activists and fighters are closing the window for any solution, regional sources and analysts say.
They say the idea, promoted by the West, that the elimination of Hamas will ultimately allow the return of the PA to Gaza and new pressure for the creation of a Palestinian state is an illusion.
"I believe that this war will have an extreme reaction and impact on Israeli society. Israel as a society and as a political elite will become more radical,” said Hatib, a politics professor at Birzeit University in the West Bank.
"There is no political horizon, all that is left has evaporated," added Hatib.
Prepared by: A.Š.
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