Last week, Albert Jaloke Mokpeme, spokesman for the Central African Republic Presidency, mentioned the country's efforts to diversify its relations - seeking help from countries like the US and Russia in training soldiers.
"The US is also offering the Central African Republic military training, both on Central African soil and on American soil," Mokpeme said.
Americans in a field dominated by Wagner
Bancroft's potential involvement indicates a US interest in challenging Russian dominance in the Central African Republic. Wagner is facing internal turmoil following the death of founder Yevgeny Prigozhin last year.
Analysts believe that Western countries see an opportunity to fill the void left by Wagner's reorganization. This is what President Fosten Archang Tuadera is counting on, hoping to "take advantage of Wagner's reorganization to reduce his dependence on the Russians," a source from European security structures told AFP.
Bancroft, however, denied deploying his men in the Central African Republic's capital, Bangui, but confirmed he was talking to President Tuadera's government.
"Beginning in July, Bancroft agreed a framework for discussing possible future activities with the government of the Central African Republic. That's all,” a spokeswoman for Bancroft said in a written statement Tuesday.
"Relationship Diversification"
The Central African Republic government appears to have opted for a balancing act. Acknowledging the talks with Bancroft, they also emphasize the collaboration with Wagner - stressing the need to "diversify the relationship".
This strategy aims to maintain security partnerships with both Russia and the US – and potentially exploit their rivalry to secure favorable deals.
However, there are concerns within the country, especially in the capital, Bangui, where there are fears of a potential conflict between Russian and American forces. The government, through Mokpeme, sought to allay concerns, stressing that Bancroft's presence would be for the sole purpose of training the Central African Armed Forces.
Concerns about possible escalation
Observers, however, warned of the dangers of cohabitation between rival forces. Voices from non-governmental organizations warn of the possibility of conflict over the control of mineral resources.
The potential for human rights abuses and further instability is also of great concern. "There can be no cohabitation between the Americans and Wagner's mercenaries with all the abuses they have committed against the population of Central Africa and with all the evidence we have," says Karl Blage of the non-governmental organization G16.
Despite official statements, an anonymous government official confirmed: “Yes, US paramilitaries are already there. And that raises real concerns," he told DW.
Geopolitical consequences
Internationally, the hiring of Bancroft is part of a broader strategy to reduce dependence on Wagner's Russian-backed mercenaries.
French troops, which were deployed in the country in 2013 to stop the civil war, withdrew in 2016, leaving the Central African Republic to officially bring the Wagnerites to train the army.
As rebel groups advanced towards the capital, additional Russian operatives were deployed in 2020. The anonymous official said the Russians were already deeply involved, reducing the possibility of conflict.
"I haven't discussed this with my colleague from foreign affairs yet. But what reassures me a little is the fact that the Russians participate in the National Security Council and that the Americans cannot be there without their knowledge, let alone their consent," said that anonymous source to DW.
France and the European Union are closely monitoring the situation. The US, while officially denying any connection with Bancroft, is likely providing unofficial support through personnel and resources.
"Many of the recruits will be former US soldiers, there are personal relationships and tactical contacts that could serve as conduits," said Colin Clark of the Sufan security think tank in New York.
Russia, on the other hand, is determined to maintain its foothold in the country, and Wagner's influence is still significant.
An uncertain future
Unconfirmed reports from the French daily Le Mond in late 2022 spoke of an offer the United States allegedly made to the Central African Republic - a security deal in exchange for distancing itself from Wagner.
Thus, Bancroft's talks are considered part of a larger geopolitical competition.
The State Department officially announced its position: "The United States remains fully committed to the partnership with the people of the Central African Republic and will continue to work closely with the government to achieve the common goals of a peaceful and prosperous Central African Republic that respects human rights and the rule of law."
As the Central African Republic tries to find a delicate geopolitical balance, potential cooperation with Bancroft raises questions about the impact of additional paramilitary forces on a country already in turmoil.
Observers await further developments to see how this unlikely cohabitation unfolds and whether it will bring stability or perhaps further exacerbate the Central African Republic's challenges.
Bonus video:
