He has been impeached twice, tried to thwart a peaceful transfer of power after losing the 2020 presidential election, faces numerous charges in multiple criminal cases, and his critics warn that he plans to rule as an autocrat.
However, Donald Trump could return to the White House, writes the Reuters agency.
Trump leads his rivals in the race for the Republican presidential nomination by almost 40 percentage points according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, a remarkable comeback for the former president of the United States of America (US) who three years ago looked defeated and humiliated.
Trump has pleaded not guilty to the criminal cases against him and says they are politically motivated. Trump is also closing in on winning the Republican nomination, after a landslide victory on January 15 in Iowa, in the first intra-party primary for the Republican presidential nominee.
That prompted one of his few remaining rivals, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, to drop out of the race, leaving only former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley to challenge Trump.
The Reuters agency listed four reasons why Trump could win the elections in November 2024 against the current US president, Democrat Joseph Biden:
Unhappy voters
The Biden White House says the economy is in good shape, with unemployment at a near-historic low of 3,7% from 6,3% when Trump left office, and inflation down from a peak of over nine percent in June 2022 to 3,4, XNUMX% in December.
Much of the public, including many voters of color and young voters, believes otherwise, according to Reuters.
They indicate that wages are not keeping pace with the costs of basic goods and services such as groceries, cars, houses, childcare and elderly care.
When Biden talks about the economy, Americans think about affordability, not economic indicators.
Polls show voters view Republicans by wide margins as better stewards of the economy, even though Trump has offered only vague proposals.
Talking with fear
Voters are upset for reasons that go far beyond the economy.
Trump speaks to the concerns, real or not, that many white Americans have in a country that is becoming increasingly diverse and culturally advanced.
There is also a pervasive sense of losing ground, that the cornerstones of American life—home ownership, a decent salary that keeps pace with inflation, a college education—are becoming increasingly unattainable for many.
Polls show voters are concerned about crime and nervous about the influx of migrants crossing the US-Mexico border illegally. Trump is adept at channeling and packaging those fears while still presenting himself as someone who comes from outside the US political system.
He is both an arsonist and a fireman, declaring that the country is in chaos and then offering himself as a savior.
Trump's actions do not disqualify him with many voters
While critics within his own party, the Democratic Party and the media consider him unfit for office, millions of voters disagree.
Instead, many of his supporters have become convinced that Trump is the victim of a political witch hunt.
At least half of Republicans polled by Reuters/Ipsos earlier this year said they would have no problem voting for Trump even if he were convicted of a crime.
Trump can also point to his four years in office and claim that the machinery of government has largely functioned, if sometimes chaotically, despite fears that he could not govern and that the worst accusations about him — such as his collusion with Russia — never came to light. proven.
It's all Biden's fault
Trump can also take advantage of a White House that has so far been unable to convince much of the public that Biden's job creation policies — through big government investments in infrastructure, clean energy and chip manufacturing — have made a difference in their lives.
Biden has also been saddled with a pair of foreign wars that have divided Americans.
Trump's non-interventionist "America First" message could resonate with voters who fear further US meddling in Ukraine or Israel, while Biden maintains a more traditional, interventionist American foreign policy.
None of this, of course, means that Trump will surely win the election.
He remains deeply unpopular in many parts of the country and among many demographic groups, and if he is selected as his party's nominee, it could trigger a high turnout in favor of Democrats to oppose him.
His inflammatory rhetoric, including threats to retaliate against political enemies he calls "pests," could also turn off more moderate Republicans and independent voters, who he will need to defeat Biden.
Democrats have also successfully campaigned as abortion rights defenders to defeat Republicans across the country in a series of elections and will again make the issue central to their 2024 campaign.
But at this point, ten months from Election Day, Trump has a better chance of returning to the White House than at any time since he left office.
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