Even as peace talks accelerate in the Middle East, the threat of a new and devastating level of violence is heating up. Representatives of the US, Egypt, Israel and Qatar met in Cairo on February 13 to try to secure a six-week ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages by Hamas. At the same time, the fear of a massive invasion by the Israeli army on Rafah, the southernmost city in Gaza along the border with Egypt, where there are more than a million Palestinians, has been growing for days.
Any expansion of the conflict will have devastating consequences for civilians, destroy Israel's relationship with Egypt and exhaust American patience, writes the British "Economist". However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says it may be necessary to achieve "total victory".
Netanyahu said on Wednesday that Israel would carry out "strong" action against Hamas in Rafah after allowing civilians to leave the fighting zones, Reuters reported. The Israeli military has said it wants to flush the militants out of their hideouts in the town and free the hostages, but has not provided any details on the proposed plan to evacuate civilians.
Netanyahu, who is facing growing international pressure to delay the planned attack, gave no indication of when the offensive might take place.
The British newspaper said that Netanyahu's emphasis on Rafa was partly an attempt to improve his position by promising the Israelis a decisive result in the war. On February 12, the Prime Minister received a brief relief after commandos rescued two hostages from the Al-Shabura settlement in Rafah (74 Palestinians were killed in a diversionary Israeli bombardment).
"Only sustained military pressure ... will lead to the release of all our hostages," he said afterward. However, as "The Economist" points out, the focus on Rafa is not only aimed at saving Netanyahu's head.
The paper says there is agreement within the Israeli security establishment that it is useful to strike at Hamas there, in its last stronghold, and take control of the border with Egypt, the main channel for arms smuggling.
According to security officials, Hamas is on the defensive. The search for the leader of that movement in Gaza, Yahjo Sinvar, continues in Khan Yunis and is considered to be less and less able to communicate with his people. Hamas is trying to re-establish a presence in Gaza City, in the north, by putting uniformed police on the streets and paying the salaries of civil servants.
Still, according to the analysis, Israeli intelligence officials believe Hamas leaders are worried they are losing control over the population. More than 10.000 Hamas members are believed to have been killed and thousands wounded or captured. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) say that around 18 of the 24 Hamas battalions have been "broken". The remaining fighters are in "guerrilla mode" and are no longer capable of effectively ruling Gaza.
According to the "Economist" assessment, the attack on Rafah would put even more pressure on Hamas, but the losses could be huge. The generals know that there may not be an effective way to move civilians out of the danger zone. In the previous stages of the war, Israel urged residents of Gaza City and Khan Yunis to move south, away from the war zone. Now he should force those who fled to Rafah to resettle again, this time to the ever-shrinking "safe areas" - makeshift tent cities on the coast.
Israeli intelligence officials believe Hamas leaders are worried they are losing control of the population
Neighboring Egypt is desperate to avoid the war spilling over into its territory. He refuses to allow large numbers of refugees to leave Gaza and has warned Israel that a war in the border area could have "terrible consequences". Egyptian officials have threatened to suspend the peace agreement signed with Israel in 1979 if desperate Palestinians flock to Egypt, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The head of humanitarian operations of the United Nations warned yesterday about the possibility of Palestinians overflowing from Rafah to Egypt if Israel launches a military operation against that border town.
"The possibility of a military operation in Rafah, with the possibility of closing the (border) crossing, with the possibility of an overflow... a kind of Egyptian nightmare... is right before our eyes," said Martin Griffiths yesterday in Geneva. He added that it is an "illusion" that the citizens of Gaza can be evacuated to a safe zone.
The United Nations announced that an Israeli offensive on the Rafah could "lead to a massacre".
"The Economist" writes that the possibility of a large number of civilian victims causes concern for Israel's allies. US President Joe Biden said on February 12 that "a major military operation in Rafah should not be carried out without a credible plan to ensure the safety and support of the more than one million people who have taken refuge there."
David Cameron, the British foreign secretary, also called for restraint. "I don't see how it is possible to wage war among these people (in Rafah)," he said. "They have nowhere to go."
The trouble he got into is prompting Netanyahu to try to redeem himself with a risky escalation in Rafah, while the generals and the pragmatic wing of the war cabinet would rather try to reach an agreement on the release of the hostages. For them, Rafa can come later
According to the assessment of the British newspaper, it depends on two factors whether Israel will attack Rafa.
"One is whether Netanyahu can get support at home for a new front in the war, which is by no means assured. The operation he is promoting would be large and would involve entire brigades that would likely remain there for weeks," the analysis said, adding that the IDF has yet to begin massing troops for a maneuver of this scale. The newspaper recalls that the generals were withdrawing troops from Gaza and demobilizing many of the 300.000 reservists called up on October 7.
The economic costs of the conflict are growing, and Moody's downgraded Israel's rating from A9 to A1 on February 2. She warned that a prolonged war could "weaken executive and legislative institutions."
Netanyahu's popularity continues to decline in the polls, and his rival in the war cabinet, Benny Gantz, surpasses him in both personal approval ratings and voting intentions.
If the elections were held now, Gantz's centrist National Unity Party would receive more than twice as many votes as Netanyahu's Likud, according to the latest research by the Economist.
"The troubles he has fallen into encourage Netanyahu to try to redeem himself with a risky escalation in Rafah, while the generals and the pragmatic wing of the war cabinet, led by Gantz, would rather try to reach an agreement on the release of the hostages. For them, Rafa can come later," the analysis states.
Whether such an agreement is possible depends on the talks in Cairo and on Hamas, the "Economist" assesses. Israel has flatly rejected the Palestinian group's demands for a full ceasefire and a permanent withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza before any hostage exchange for Palestinian prisoners.
However, the return of Israeli officials to Cairo on February 13 for further negotiations is a reflection of Israel's assessment that Hamas's request is only an initial move and that an agreement on a temporary truce can be reached, "The Economist" points out.
"Israeli officials believe that Hamas's need to regroup and give the population a desperately needed break before the holy month of Ramadan, which is expected to begin on March 10, could force the group to show more flexibility in hostage negotiations. In order to avoid the inferno in Rafah, one side must give in first," the analysis concludes.
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