The United States says increasing military cooperation between Tehran and Moscow is "worrying" amid reports that Iran has delivered multiple packages of ballistic missiles to Russia.
Reuters reported on February 21 that Iran had delivered hundreds of missiles to Russia in four shipments since January, and an unnamed Iranian military official said "there will be more in the coming weeks."
While Ukrainian and Western officials have yet to publicly confirm the Reuters report, the development is consistent with US warnings.
A US State Department spokesman told RFE/RL that while they were unable to comment directly on the report, the growing military cooperation between Iran and Russia "is something that should concern the whole world."
"We have been warning for some time that Russia has been negotiating with Iran regarding the acquisition of short-range ballistic missiles and that these negotiations are actively progressing," the spokesman said.
The spokesman attributed the growing relations between Tehran and Moscow to Russia becoming "more isolated" since it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
On February 20, a spokesman for Iran's defense ministry insisted that his country's military cooperation with Russia "has nothing to do with the war in Ukraine" and predates the conflict.
After the invasion of Ukraine, Russia was quickly hit by a series of Western sanctions, overtaking Iran as the most sanctioned country in the world in March 2022.
The two countries have grown closer since the beginning of the war, expanding economic and military cooperation.
Iran supplies Russia with its cheap but effective "Shahed kamikaze" drones, which Moscow often uses to target civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.
Iran has denied supplying drones to Russia for use against Ukraine and insists it sold a "limited number" of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Moscow before the war. Russia has also denied reports that it is using Iranian drones in the war.
However, the Russian Ministry of Defense appears to have confirmed in July 2023 in its "Armeisky Sbornik" newspaper that its Geran-2 drone is actually an Iranian-made Shahed-136 unmanned aerial vehicle.
Reuters reported that the Iranian deliveries included Fateh-110 and Zolfaqar short-range ballistic missiles.
It comes after UN bans on Iranian missile imports and exports expire in October 2023, although Britain and the European Union have said they will continue to impose sanctions on Iran.
A month earlier, Iranian Aerospace Forces (IRGC) commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh showed Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu a display of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps weapons in Tehran.
"Game Changer"
If confirmed, the delivery of Iranian missiles to Russia "would be a game changer both militarily and politically," said John Krzyzaniak, a research associate at the Wisconsin Nuclear Arms Control Project.
Missiles are more difficult to defend against than drones, which allows Russia to launch more devastating long-range attacks.
Krzizaniak added that the trade would bring cash-strapped Iran a windfall and boost in reputation, as well as "a bargaining chip in other deals with Russia."
Over the past year, reports emerged that Tehran had finalized an agreement with Moscow to purchase Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets to upgrade its aging air force fleet.
Observers have suggested in the past that one of Iran's goals in supplying Russia with arms is the possibility of acquiring advanced warplanes.
"Russia has begun using North Korean missiles in the war with mixed results. However, Iran's short-range ballistic missiles have been tested in combat," said Nikole Grajevski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Program.
While the alleged missile deliveries would further cement the growing military cooperation between Tehran and Moscow, the West would consider it an escalation, according to Grajevski.
"It would also be another nail in the coffin for [the Iran nuclear deal] and would certainly complicate any kind of parallel agreement on Iran's nuclear program — even if those chances are already poor," she added.
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