The feuding Palestinian groups are meeting this week for talks in Moscow. Russia wants to help bring them together and potentially free more hostages. But even if that doesn't happen, Moscow benefits.
This week, representatives of various Palestinian groups are traveling to Moscow for talks on the war between Israel and Hamas, but also on other Middle Eastern topics as part of the "internal Palestinian dialogue".
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov told the Russian state news agency TASS that 29 to 12 Palestinian organizations will participate in the conference, which begins on February 14 and will last two or three days.
This includes representatives of the political wing of Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, then Fatah (the political organization that governs the occupied West Bank) and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which is the umbrella organization for Palestinian groups.
Different groups have different views on topics such as should Israel be recognized as a state? The PLO, led by Fatah, recognized Israel in 1993 – partly in exchange for a possible Palestinian state. Hamas, which is not part of the PLO, has rejected this for years, although its rhetoric has recently softened.
There has also been violence between Palestinian groups in the past. After Hamas won the elections in Gaza in 2006, no power-sharing agreement was reached with the more moderate Fatah, and - clashes began. Fatah eventually left the Gaza Strip, leaving Hamas in power, which now governs the West Bank. The Fatah authorities there are called the Palestinian Authority or the Palestinian Authority (PA).
"Dialogue just for the sake of dialogue"
This is not the first time that the formation of a united Palestinian front has been considered. Ruslan Suleimanov, an independent Russian expert on the Middle East based in Baku, reminds "DW" that earlier attempts were made to mediate between different groups, but those meetings "never brought results".
Suleimanov says that "Russia does not have any road map" and that, "especially for the Gaza Strip, it would be necessary to establish mediation and maintain good contacts both with Israel and with the paramilitary wing of Hamas in Gaza."
He thinks that Moscow's main goals are to show that the Kremlin has some influence over the Palestinian factions and to use the moment before the presidential elections in Russia to show geopolitical influence. Russia is electing a new president in mid-March and there is no doubt that the current president, Vladimir Putin, will win. "Talks in Moscow will really only be dialogue for the sake of dialogue," believes Suleimanov.
This view is shared by Hugh Lovat, an expert on the Middle East and North Africa at the Berlin-based think tank the European Council on Foreign Relations. "The summit is a way to show that Russia has the diplomatic capacity to play a practical role in supporting Palestinian national unity," Lovat told DW. However, he adds that the previous negotiations on reconciliation, which were held in Moscow, Algeria and Cairo, "also failed to lead to a permanent agreement on the reconciliation of the rivals".
A split in the Palestinian ranks
"Disagreement between Palestinian groups implies deep political differences related to the peace process and national liberation strategy, but also to technical issues related to how to restore the institutions of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza," explains Lovat.
Hamas, which is classified as a terrorist organization by Germany, the EU and the US, has ruled Gaza since 2007. Any future, post-war scenario that would restore Palestinian Authority to Gaza and politically integrate Hamas into the occupied West Bank would have to be based on some sort of understanding. between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, says Lovat.
For Palestinian Prime Minister Mohamed Staeh - who resigned on February 26 - that is one possibility. Earlier that month, at the Munich Security Conference, he said that Hamas is an integral part of the Palestinian political arena. "They have to come on our political agenda. And our position is very clear: two states within the borders of 1967 - by peaceful means. The Palestinians should be under one roof," Stajeh said.
However, there are some problems with this idea. Some states have argued that Hamas should not play a role in governing the Palestinian territories after the end of the conflict. Israel is especially against it. It is also difficult to predict how Hamas's hard line on recognizing Israel would fit with the PLO's position, which has already recognized Israel.
For Russia, even if the meeting does not produce progress, continued division among the Palestinians would not necessarily be a negative outcome. The summit would help strengthen Russia's future role in the Middle East.
Russia as a mediator in the Middle East
For years, Russia managed to maintain close ties with Israel, despite having good relations with one of Israel's regional adversaries – Iran. After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, relations deteriorated: Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, did not support the Russian invasion, and thousands of Russians and Ukrainians fled to Israel.
However, analyst Suleimanov believes that Russia in fact "cannot afford to lose Israel", given that the Russian-speaking community is the largest minority in Israel, after nearly a million people of Jewish origin immigrated to the country after the breakup. of the Soviet Union in the early nineties of the last century.
Likewise, ties between Russia and Iran have improved. It is known that Iran supports not only Hamas, but also Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as Iraqi paramilitary groups and the Houthis in Yemen. And they all consider the USA and Israel to be their enemies.
Russia has long maintained ties with Palestinian militant groups, and its contacts with Hamas have already led to some success. In October, Russia's deputy foreign minister and President Putin's special envoy for the Middle East, Bogdanov, handed Hamas political representatives in Qatar a list of kidnapped Israelis of Russian origin or those with dual citizenship and demanded their release.
Roni Krivoy, a Russian Israeli, was released by Hamas on November 26, along with 13 other Israelis who were released as part of a temporary ceasefire brokered by Qatar and the United States of America. As the "Washington Post" noted at the time, Krivoj "became the first adult man with an Israeli passport to be released, although the exchanges involved mostly women and children".
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