Weber: The attack in Moscow is one of the largest jihadist operations

Lukas Weber, co-founder and editor of MillitantWire.com, a research center for monitoring extremist and terrorist groups around the world, assessed that the current attack in the Russian capital Moscow "creates great discomfort and is one of the largest external jihadist operations in recent years that took place in the center of power of Russia," writes Radio Free Europe (RSE).

At least 133 people were killed and more than 140 injured on Friday when gunmen attacked the packed Crocus City concert hall in the western suburbs of Moscow. Washington stated that it is credible that the "Islamic State" could be behind the attack, after the militant organization itself confirmed it. Russia has not yet commented on these allegations.

Weber points out that the "Islamic State" has identified loopholes in the Russian security apparatus, which stretched them with its campaigns in Africa.

RFE/RL: Regarding the attack in Moscow, we saw US officials say that their intelligence confirmed that the "Islamic State" was behind it. However, it seems that there is still uncertainty about who these attackers are. In the speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin, we heard how he hinted at Ukraine's involvement in the attack, which Kiev denies. So what can we say about the attribution of responsibility at this point?

Weber: The central leadership of the "Islamic State" and its official propaganda apparatus took responsibility for the attack in the Moscow region. So, in essence, the attack was almost certainly carried out by the Islamic State, and the brutal and indiscriminate nature of the attack fits the pattern of international terrorists and Islamic State operations.

This attack is causing great discomfort to Moscow and is one of the largest external jihadist operations in recent years to take place in the center of Russian power.

This comes after clashes with Islamic State militants in clubs, as well as recent raids earlier in March against a (terrorist) cell apparently linked to the Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) branch. and Pakistan, and during the raid, which was apparently on a cell targeting a synagogue in Moscow. Two Kazakh nationals were killed (in that attack) and it appears to be linked to the Central Asian contingent of the "Islamic State", which has been activated, reinforced and mobilized for external operations.

RSE: But why target Russia? What makes Russia a special target for the "Islamic State" and the "Islamic State of Khorasan" branch?

Weber: Former Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi singled out Russia along with the United States in early 2014 as the primary enemy in this implacable war against what they say is Islam and the Mujahideen. This only intensified in 2015 when Russia intervened militarily in Syria to support the government (of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad) and has continued to intensify following numerous military interventions by Russia and private military operatives across Africa. And when the Taliban took over Afghanistan, the Afghan branch of the "Islamic State" began to emphasize the Taliban's relations with Russia more and more. So, these are a number of factors that have developed rhetorical talking points and themes through the propaganda of the "Islamic State". I think that the "Islamic State" has identified the loopholes of the Russian security apparatus, which stretched them with its campaigns in Africa. It's an intense war of attrition, then a full conventional war in Ukraine.

Essentially, the degradation of Russian counterterrorism capabilities, where some have been sent to Ukraine and suffered heavy losses, for example, are forces that would otherwise be deployed to deal with domestic security issues and counterterrorism law enforcement support and the like. So, there are numerous opportunities that go with increasing motivation and increasing priority for Russia to be on their list.

RSE: A moment ago you mentioned the large Central Asian contingent within the "Islamic State". There are many fighters who are originally from the Caucasus. How important and influential is that branch of the organization that comes from the former Soviet Union and is mainly from the Russian-speaking area?

Weber: The Central Asian contingent of the "Islamic State", the center of gravity during the 2010s caliphate area was in Iraq and Syria, and they had a large number of foreign fighters. For example, they had propaganda media in Central Asian languages ​​and Russian, tailored to messages against regional governments to build support, attract fundraising, (encourage) recruitment, incite violence and so on within these communities as well as their diasporas in the West.

What we have seen in recent years is that the Central Asian hardline focus has shifted to its branch in Khorasan, which is primarily based in Afghanistan with some presence in Pakistan as well. And especially with the external operations of IS-K in which this branch became the leader, leading the internationally oriented branch of the "Islamic State", because the branches connected to the central leadership in Iraq and Syria had to focus more on survival, regrouping and reconstituting their capabilities and networks in Iraq and Syria.

IS-K is now emerging as a propaganda force as well as an external operational force and now produces propaganda in more languages ​​than any other branch of the Islamic State's caliphate in Iraq and Syria. So this branch in particular has invested a lot of resources in expanding, building support and recruiting fighters from Central Asia and we can see that these fighters are particularly engaged in its external operations.

So there have been three conspiracies in Europe since 2021 involving militants from Central Asia and they have targeted targets within Europe. There is a cell that is mainly composed of people from Central Asia, who are gathered in Austria and Germany. So this fits with this growing Central Asian contingent within his foreign operations, which have also been involved in many attacks on Iran and the recent attack on a church in Istanbul.