President Joe Biden has warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US will not participate in a counteroffensive against Iran if Israel decides to retaliate for a massive drone and rocket attack on Israeli territory overnight, the White House said.
The attack may have escaped with relatively little damage, but it marked an important transformation in a conflict that the two eternal Middle Eastern enemies have long fought through intermediaries, assassinations and coups outside Israel, often in third countries.
The threat of open war between Iran and Israel and US involvement has put the region on edge, prompting calls for restraint from global powers and Arab states to avoid further escalation.
"The United States will continue to help Israel defend itself, but it does not want war," said White House National Security Spokesman John Kirby.
Israeli officials said last night that Netanyahu's cabinet was committed to retaliation, but was divided over the scope and timing of the response.
Iran carried out the attacks in response to an April 1 strike on its consulate in Syria that Israel suspects killed top Revolutionary Guard commanders. From Tehran's perspective, retaliation was needed to save face both with the domestic public and its regional allies.
However, the attack with more than 300 rockets and drones, mostly launched from Iran, caused only modest damage in Israel, as most of them were shot down with the help of the US, Great Britain and Jordan.
An air base in southern Israel was hit but continued to function normally, and a seven-year-old girl was seriously injured by shrapnel. There were no other reports of serious damage.
The leaders of the G7 countries condemned Iran's attack and said they would work to prevent "uncontrolled regional escalation" in the Middle East.
Italy, which currently chairs the group, called a meeting of G7 leaders after Biden promised a coordinated diplomatic response to the attack.
Turning attention away from Gaza
Analysts believe that the Iranian attack has diverted attention for now from the way Israel is conducting the war in Gaza.
A week ago, much of the world was united in outrage over the appalling civilian casualties and worsening famine caused by Israel's invasion of Gaza. Even some of Israel's closest allies have discussed imposing restrictions on arms sales.
Now, according to the British "Economist", Israel can present itself as a victim and talks on limiting arms sales will be postponed. The troubles of the citizens of Gaza will be secondary to the possibility of a larger regional war, the newspaper said.
"The Guardian" writes that Iran's attack is likely to quell murmurs in the US Congress about reducing arms supplies to Israel. "Now Israel's supporters can present those restrictions as leaving America's leading ally in the Middle East defenseless at a time when it faces a proven threat from Iran," the analysis points out.
"The Economist" states that Iran made a mistake in its response to the attack in Damascus, but it is uncertain whether the dysfunctional government of Israel can take advantage of Iran's mistake by showing restraint, keeping its allies on its side and avoiding an all-out war that would have catastrophic consequences for the world. economy and tens of millions of people.
A chance for a coalition
Two Israeli ministers said yesterday that Israel's retaliation is not certain and that it will not act independently.
"We will build a regional coalition and exact a price from Iran in a way and at a time that suits us," centrist minister Beni Gantz said ahead of the war cabinet meeting.
Defense Minister Yoav Galant also said that Israel has an opportunity to form a strategic alliance "against this serious threat from Iran, which threatens to install nuclear explosives on missiles." Iran denies that it is trying to acquire nuclear weapons.
Israeli officials said last night that Netanyahu's cabinet was in favor of retaliation, but was divided over the scope and timing of the response.
The five-member cabinet, in which Netanyahu, Galant and Gantz have decision-making powers, met yesterday and is expected to meet again for further discussions, Reuters reported.
Iran's army chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, warned on television that "our response will be much greater than tonight's military action if Israel retaliates against Iran" and told Washington that its bases could also be attacked if it helped Israel retaliate.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdolahian said Tehran had informed the US that its attack on Israel would be "limited" and in self-defense, and that regional neighbors were also notified of the planned strikes 72 hours in advance.
A Turkish diplomatic source said Iran had informed Turkey in advance of what would happen, Reuters reported.
Iran said the aim of the attack was to punish "Israeli crimes", but now "considers that matter closed". In the past two weeks, there has been a debate in Iran about how to measure a response that would show strength against the enemy but not drag it into a wider war with Israel and its allies.
Russia, China, France and Germany, as well as the Arab states of Egypt, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, have called for restraint.
"We will do everything to stop further escalation," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said during a visit to China. "We can only warn everyone, especially Iran, not to continue in this way."
Turkey has also warned Iran that it does not want additional tensions in the region.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard seized an Israeli-bound cargo ship on Saturday in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy shipping routes, underscoring the risks to the global economy.
Some flights were grounded in countries across the region, and stock prices fell on stock markets in Israel and the Gulf states.
Citizens will bear the brunt
The war in Gaza has spread to fronts with Iran-aligned groups in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq.
Iran's most powerful ally in the region, the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah, fired rockets at an Israeli base the night before last. Israel said it hit a Hezbollah site deep in Lebanon yesterday morning. Hezbollah praised Iran's attack as a "courageous" decision.
Yemen's Houthis, who fire missiles at ships in the Red Sea in what they say is a sign of support for the Palestinians, called the Iranian attack legitimate.
In Israel, while there was alarm over the first direct attack from another country in more than three decades, the mood contrasted with the trauma of the October 7 Hamas-led attack.
“I think we have now been given permission to respond. I think it was a big attack from Iran... I guess Israel will respond and it will be over quickly and life will go back to normal,” said 60-year-old Jeremy Smith.
In Iran, state television showed small rallies in several cities celebrating the attack, but privately some Iranians were worried about Israel's response.
"Iran gave a golden opportunity to Netanyahu to attack our country. But we, the people of Iran, will bear the brunt of this conflict," said Shima, a 29-year-old nurse from Tehran.
The attack on the consulate as a turning point
While senior Israeli officials presented the Iranian attack as "revealing the true face" of Tehran, the reality is that the immediate cause was Israel's misjudgment during the attack on the Iranian diplomatic complex in Syria, in which two high-ranking Iranian generals were also killed, the "Guardian" assesses.
After years in which both sides operated within a largely undeclared set of "rules," Israel, analysts said, crossed every red line with a strike that Tehran considers tantamount to an attack on Iranian soil.
"Israel went too far by assassinating an Iranian general at a diplomatic location," said Yagil Levi, a professor of military sociology at Israel's Open University.
"Israel is guided by the availability of its weapons systems. And every time a country or leadership thinks they have good intelligence, good opportunity, and available weapons systems that can do the job, Israel attacks," he added. "Israel does not have a real strategic approach ... trying to identify links between specific military actions and expected benefits is not in the repertoire of the Israeli leadership".
And while great importance is attached to Israel's military strategy of deterrence, it is a principle that is no less rooted in Iran, despite years of attempts to avoid direct confrontation, according to the Guardian's analysis.
Israeli commentators portrayed the Iranian attack's failure to do much damage as a defeat for Tehran and a victory for Israel, suggesting retaliation was inevitable after the first publicized attack by a foreign state on Israeli soil since Iraq fired missiles in 1991.
"In reality, the fact that Iran attacked at all, while Israel is fighting both Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah on its northern border, represents a significant strategic and political failure that threatens to further deplete military resources while provoking the spread of the conflict," he points out. The Guardian".
Iran is a "hero in the eyes of the Palestinians"
Many Palestinians in Gaza hailed the attack on Israel as a rare revenge for an offensive against their enclave, although some said they believed Tehran carried out the attack more for show than to cause real damage, Reuters reported.
"For the first time, we saw some rockets that did not land in our areas. Those rockets were going towards occupied Palestine," said Abu Abdallah, referring to the territory that became Israel in 1948, not the occupied West Bank and Gaza.
"We hope that if Iran or any other country goes to war, a solution for Gaza could be closer than ever. The Americans may have to solve Gaza to eliminate the roots of the problem," Abdallah (32) said.
Many in Gaza feel abandoned by their Middle Eastern neighbors since Israel launched an offensive that has killed more than 33.000 people in response to the October 7 attacks by Hamas on Israeli soil that killed 1.200 people and took 253 hostages.
However, support has come from Iran and its regional proxies, particularly Hezbollah, which is allied with the Islamist Hamas.
In footage from the enclave, many residents, including in tents for the displaced, whistled and others chanted "allahu akbar" (God is greatest) as Iranian rockets and Israeli intercepts lit up the sky, Reuters reported.
"Whoever decides to attack Israel, dares to attack Israel at a time when the whole world is working in its favor, is a hero in the eyes of the Palestinians, regardless of whether we share their (Iranian) ideology or not," said Majed Abu Hamza ( 52), father of seven children, from Gaza City.
"They have been killing us for more than six months and no one dared to do anything. Now Iran, after their consulate was hit, is striking back at Israel and that brings joy to our hearts," added Abu Hamza.
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