Considering the large number of crises in the world, it is no surprise that the leading countries when it comes to armaments, namely the USA, China and Russia, have again massively increased their military expenditures. Not surprisingly, military spending in Africa, the Middle East, Europe, Asia and Oceania, North and South America increased for the first time since 2009.
But, what even the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) did not expect, is that in 2023 the largest percentage increase in arms expenditures, by an incredible 105 percent, was recorded in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a country in which for a long time the conflict between the government and various armed groups continues.
Xiao Liang, research fellow in SIPRI's program on military spending and the arms industry, told DW: "What surprised us was how much the increase was in the rest of the world, especially in Latin America and Africa. In Mexico and El Salvador, for example, governments used the military to solve internal problems, namely to fight organized crime and violent gangs. Similar worrying trends exist in Ecuador and Brazil.
"The increase, therefore, in itself is not an excessive surprise, but its scale and scope are. And as for the global trend, and if the current conflicts and tensions continue, we will probably witness a further increase in the coming years," says Xiao Lijang.
Russia switched to a war economy
Ukraine is still the number one source of conflict, after the Russian invasion. In 2023, Russia's military spending relative to its gross domestic product (GDP) reached its highest level since the collapse of the Soviet Union: 5,9 percent, as calculated by Xiao Liang. At the same time, in Ukraine it amounted to 37 percent of GDP. According to the SIPRI researcher, the war represents a much greater pressure on Ukraine than on Russia. According to the numbers, it is an unequal battle, but Ukraine managed to overcome it thanks to the support of the West.
"All NATO members, except for three of them, increased their spending. In addition, eleven of the 31 members of the Alliance have reached or even exceeded the goal of spending two percent of GDP on defense. This is the highest since the end of the Cold War. We estimate that, even with the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO, even more countries will achieve this goal and that the total consumption of NATO countries will continue to grow," says the SIPRI researcher.
China is arming itself – Taiwan, Japan and India are reacting
Looking at the SIPRI statistics, it is immediately apparent which conflict has been simmering for a long time and which has also caused military spending to rise sharply in 2023. It is the conflict between China and Taiwan. Last year, China spent another six percent more than a year earlier. Beijing has invested 296 billion dollars in the military, which is half of the expenditure for this purpose in the entire region of Asia and Oceania.
In response, Japan ($11 billion) and Taiwan ($50,2 billion) each increased their spending by 16,6 percent. China is using a large part of its growing military budget to increase the combat readiness of its military, says Xiao Liang.
"China's consumption has grown continuously for 29 consecutive years, the longest streak of any country. This happens mainly in parallel with the economic growth of that country, and regardless of geopolitical tensions or global crises such as the war in Ukraine or the covid pandemic. At the same time, China's military modernization is causing countries like Japan, Taiwan and India to also increase their spending," says Xiao Liang.
"Military security is again a priority"
Another significant fact in the SIPRI report is that in South Sudan, a country affected by internal violence and civil war, military spending in 2023 compared to the previous year increased by 78 percent. In Europe, Poland recorded the highest growth: 75 percent, or a total of 31,6 billion dollars. And Iran ranks fourth in military spending in the Middle East: $10,3 billion.
Niklas Schernig, a political scientist from the Leibniz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research in Frankfurt, told DW: "We are living in a time when military security has again become a priority, when security is once again thought of in military terms. In that respect, these numbers are simply an expression of that way of thinking.” And if one looks at the examples of Ukraine or the recent Iranian attacks on Israel, one can conclude that defense is much more expensive than attack. "With the current drones that Iran is supplying to Russia, for example, and that Iran is now using, the defense effort has become enormously expensive," Scherning says.
Armament needs to be controlled
Niklas Schernig also published a book on the dynamics and control of armaments. He assesses that disarmament today is only a distant prospect, considering threats such as those posed by, for example, the war in Ukraine. The world, he says, is currently in a new era: the era of uncontrolled arms, where most arms control agreements are no longer in force or have been suspended. Because of this, countries around the world are arming themselves more and more, and this is a spiral that brings more and more instability.
That's why Šerning is in favor of setting a new goal: "For states to arm themselves again, at least in a controlled manner." That there is an agreement: we do not arm ourselves above a certain level. In that case, that dynamic would be somewhat slowed down. Arms control could certainly be some sort of intermediate goal - that is, to control and stabilize armaments, and not for everyone to arm themselves however they want."
The Middle East is also arming itself
It is very likely that SIPRI's next military expenditure report for 2024 will show another increase – partly because the war in Gaza and tensions in the Middle East have already caused the biggest increase in spending in the region in a decade already in 2023 . Estimated military spending in the Middle East increased by nine percent, i.e. to 200 billion dollars. Israel's military spending alone - the second largest in the region after Saudi Arabia - increased by 24 percent, or to 27,5 billion dollars.
Because of all this, political scientist Niklas Schernig is a pessimist: "If the overall political situation does not change, I do not believe that the trend will reverse." That would only be possible if there was peace in Ukraine, which would not divide the country.” In the case of the Sino-Taiwan conflict, however, he still hopes that the US and China can control the situation through negotiations. And yet: "At this moment, the current world situation - and the SIPRI figures clearly reflect this - is extremely dangerous."
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