Iran's foreign policy, including the nuclear issue, is unlikely to change after the death of the president and foreign minister, according to experts.
President Ebrahim Raisi, a hardliner seen as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, died after his helicopter crashed in bad weather in the mountains near the border with Azerbaijan, officials and state media said yesterday.
The charred remains of the helicopter that crashed on Sunday, carrying Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdolahian and six other passengers and crew, were found early yesterday after an overnight search in a blizzard.
Khamenei, who represents the supreme authority and has the final say on foreign policy and Iran's nuclear program, said First Vice President Mohammad Mohber would take over as interim president, the official IRNA news agency reported.
"I declare five days of public mourning and express my condolences to the dear people of Iran," Khamenei said in a statement. Mohber, like Raisi, is considered close to Khamenei. According to the constitution of the Islamic Republic, new presidential elections must be held within 50 days.
Any candidate must first win the approval of the Guardian Council, a hardline watchdog that has often disqualified even prominent conservative and moderate officials, meaning the general direction of Iranian politics is unlikely to change, according to Reuters.
"I do not expect a change in the direction of Iran's foreign policy," Dr. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, told The Guardian.
"Foreign policy is conducted in the supreme council for national security, where Raisi had a certain degree of influence. I expect the same approach to continue: maintaining bilateral ties throughout the region; continued support and capacity building of the axis of resistance and the development of economic opportunities with Russia and China, along with the politics of division with Europe and the USA.
Vakil also predicts that Tehran will maintain a similar approach to the nuclear issue, maintaining ambiguity as it works to build "capacity and capability."
Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Khani was appointed acting head of diplomacy following the death of Amirabdolakhian, IRNA reported.
The accident occurred at a time of growing discontent in Iran over a series of political, social and economic crises. Iran's clerical leaders have faced international pressure over Iran's disputed nuclear program and strengthening military ties with Russia during the war in Ukraine.
Since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7 and sparked Israel's offensive in Gaza, clashes have erupted across the Middle East involving groups aligned with Iran.
The long-running "shadow war" between Iran and Israel came to light last month with an exchange of drone and missile attacks.
An Israeli official told Reuters that the country had nothing to do with the accident. "It wasn't us," said the official, who insisted on anonymity.
The state media announced that photos from the accident site showed the American-made Bel 212 helicopter crashing into a mountain peak, although there was no official statement on the cause of the accident. Decades of sanctions have made it difficult for Iran to acquire parts or modernize its planes.
The helicopter crashed in the Varzekan area north of Tabriz, IRNA reported, as Raisi was returning from an official visit to the border with Azerbaijan in northwestern Iran.
Raisi, 63, was elected president in 2021, and since taking office has ordered a tightening of morality laws, overseen a bloody crackdown on anti-government protests and taken a hard line in nuclear negotiations with world powers.
Hamas: A huge loss
Condolences came from Iran's regional neighbors and allies, including the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq and Pakistan.
Russian President Vladimir Putin called Raisi "a true friend of Russia". The Kremlin said it had spoken with Mohber by phone and both expressed "a common intention to further strengthen Russian-Iranian interaction".
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he was "deeply shocked and saddened".
"As Iran elects a new president, we reaffirm our support for the Iranian people and their struggle for human rights and basic freedoms," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said as the US offered its "official condolences."
The Iranian-backed militant group Hamas, which is fighting Israeli forces in Gaza with the support of Tehran, issued a statement offering its condolences to the Iranian people for "this huge loss".
The Iranian-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah praised him as "a strong supporter and staunch defender of our goals ... and protector of the resistance movement." Mohamed Abdulsalam, a spokesman for Yemen's Houthi rebels, said on the X network that Raisi's death was a loss "for the entire Islamic world and Palestine and Gaza."
In Iran's political system divided between the clerical establishment and the government, Raisi's 85-year-old mentor Khamenei, supreme leader since 1989, decides on all major policies.
Raisi's victory in carefully controlled elections in 2021 put all branches of government under the control of hardliners, following the eight-year presidency of the pragmatic Hassan Rouhani, who brokered Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers in 2015.
However, according to Reuters, Raisi's position may have been undermined by widespread protests against clerical rule following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in morale police custody and the failure to improve the state of Iran's economy, hampered by Western sanctions.
Race to succeed Khamenei
"The Guardian" writes that the new direction in Tehran's foreign policy is a long-term question that is ultimately related to who will succeed Khamenei as supreme leader, especially after the death of Raisi who, together with Khamenei's son Mojtab, was considered a potential leader.
Raisi's death upset the plans of hardliners who wanted him to succeed Khamenei and will spark a rivalry within their camp over who will take over the Islamic Republic when he dies, Reuters points out.
Afshon Ostovar, professor and author of "Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East," wrote in an essay earlier this month that the key determinants are likely to be a combination of Khamenei's legacy and the "excessive influence" of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). who together "defined the Islamic Republic and its place in the world".
"Although Khamenei is the main backer of the IRGC, he has sometimes acted to limit its ambitions," Ostovar wrote. "This is particularly the case with regard to foreign policy, where Khamenei has generally favored a gradualist approach, which tends to balance Iran's assertiveness with a desire to limit escalation."
"IRGC leaders regularly praise Khamenei for his wisdom on strategic matters, but they are also notably more impatient and would likely adopt a more aggressive stance - and use military force more readily - if the leader were more lenient," Ostovar told The Guardian.
"One strongman dies, another takes over"
Citizens loyal to the government gathered in mosques and squares to pray for Raisi, but most shops remained open and authorities made little effort to disrupt daily life, Reuters reported.
"He was a president who worked hard. His legacy will last as long as we live," said Mohamad Hossein Zarabi, a 28-year-old member of the Basij volunteer religious militia in the holy Shiite city of Qom.
However, some Iranians did not seem so sad.
"Who cares. One hardliner dies, another takes over and our ordeal continues," said Reza, a 47-year-old trader from the central desert city of Yazd. "We are too busy with economic and social problems to worry about such news."
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