The decision by Spain, Norway and Ireland to recognize an independent Palestinian state reflects growing discontent with Israel under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, even among traditional friends, and suggests international pressure on him will mount.
However, the decision does not mean that other major European countries will follow suit. This year, French President Emmanuel Macron said that such recognition "is not a taboo subject", a position that was repeated by the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Wednesday. In February, the British foreign minister, David Cameron, said that such recognition "cannot come at the beginning of the process, but it does not have to be at the very end of the process either."
These are small steps, although larger than anything they have said before, but they are far from the recognition of a Palestinian state. If Europe were united, if the major European states joined the recognition, leaving the United States isolated in rejecting that step, then it could have a greater impact, but it is far from reaching that stage.
"This decision must be useful, that is, it must enable a decisive step at the political level," said the French head of diplomacy Stefan Sežurne in a statement about the potential recognition. "France believes that so far the conditions have not been met for this decision to have a real impact on the process".
In other words, France will wait. The same is true for Germany, whose support for Israel, rooted in Holocaust atonement, is second only to the United States. The decision of Spain, Norway and Ireland made one thing clear: there will be no European unity, or at least a coherent time frame, on the recognition of a Palestinian state before such a state does not exist on the ground.
Nor will there be an agreement between the transatlantic allies. Like Israel, the United States remains determined that a Palestinian state must be established through negotiations between the two sides. Otherwise, the mere act of recognition does not change anything on the ground, where conditions are worsening day by day.
Netanyahu's life's work has largely been built on the foundation of avoiding a two-state deal, even to the point of supporting Hamas in the past in order to obstruct such an outcome. That seems unlikely to change unless the United States succeeds on three fronts: in normalizing Saudi Arabia's relations with Israel, in eliciting even a faint Israeli verbal commitment to a two-state process and an end to the Gaza war.
Europeans really have no influence. The recognition of the Palestinian state is purely symbolic and changes nothing. If they send 30.000 European soldiers to Gaza to end the war, then it would be different, but we know that if 10 of them die there, they will leave immediately, Rabinovic said.
"For any prime minister except Netanyahu, the American offer is very attractive," said Itamar Rabinovitch, Israel's former ambassador to the United States, who pointed out that the end of the war in Gaza will inevitably lead to an official investigation into responsibility for the October 7 disaster and confront Netanyahu. with accusations of fraud and corruption. "However, for his own personal reasons, he balks at any significant post-war role for the Palestinians in the governance of Gaza."
The leaders of the three European countries that will recognize Palestine said that they are determined to keep the idea of two states alive: "We will not allow the possibility that the two-state solution is destroyed by force," said Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.
“Those are exciting words. It seems possible that at a time of terrible suffering - in the ruins of Gaza and under what is widely seen as the ineffective and corrupt rule of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank - the recognition will provide a moral boost to Palestinians seeking the right to self-determination.
However, in reality, a divided Europe has had little or no influence on the conflict for some time.
It has been a marginal player since Israeli-Palestinian peace talks in the early 1990s resulted in the Oslo Accords. The only voice that Israel will listen to today is America's - and Netanyahu has been defying even America lately.
"The Europeans really have no influence," said Rabinovitch. "The recognition of the Palestinian state is purely symbolic and does not change anything. If they send 30 European soldiers to Gaza to end the war, then it would be different, but we know that if 000 of them die there, they will leave immediately".
The admission comes on Sunday when the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) requested arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his defense minister, Yoav Galant, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, as well as Hamas leaders.
The United States called the ICC prosecutor's decision "shameful", while France said it "supports the International Criminal Court, its independence and the fight against impunity in all situations" - another possible sign of disunity as the war rages. However, the French minister Sejourne said that the orders "must not lead to an equalization" between Hamas, which he called a terrorist group, and Israel.
In response to a case brought by South Africa, the International Court of Justice, which decides cases between states, not individuals, ordered Israel to prevent its forces from committing or inciting genocidal acts.
In other words, the pressure on Israel is increasing. So isolation is also growing. Netanyahu's decision, at a time when his political and judicial fate is at stake, to prolong the war and refuse to come up with a day-after plan for Gaza comes at a high price.
The essential question remains: Will this condemnation bring about a change in Israel's firm stance that it must win the war against Hamas, including in Rafah? Or will he consolidate that position as resentment grows over what is widely seen in Israel as Europe's unforgivable moral alignment between Hamas terrorists and the democratic state of Israel?
Some staunch opponents of Netanyahu, whose right-wing coalition is losing the electorate in Israel, were so outraged that the ICC prosecutor appeared to equate the Israeli leader with Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza and mastermind of the October 7 attacks, that they felt compelled to stand down to the side of the Israeli leader.
"Today's decision sends a message to the Palestinians and the world: terrorism pays," said Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz in a strong reaction to the decision of three countries to recognize the statehood of Palestine, adding that there will be consequences.
There is no doubt that the Palestinian issue, which was dormant until the terrorist violence of October 7, is now back in the spotlight in Western capitals and beyond.
The attack on Israel, and the devastating bombing of Gaza in response, shook the world out of its lethargy regarding this conflict. The Biden administration, along with European powers, has barely mentioned a two-state outcome in previous years, believing that the Palestinian issue can be resolved in some broader Middle Eastern normalization of relations with Israel.
It turned out to be wishful thinking.
The two nations, Israelis and Palestinians, fighting for the same narrow strip of land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, remain the inalienable core of the conflict. Neither retreats; each believes that his right is indisputable. Now, while a wider regional conflict seems possible, work is being done to revive the idea of two states, although the conditions for this appear to be less favorable than ever.
The recognition of a Palestinian state by Spain, Norway and Ireland is part of that rush, and it may have come too late. It reflects the widespread feeling that "the measure is overdone". It is part of the global discontent that could contribute to the creation of a flywheel if more things change - at the very least the removal of the current Israeli and Palestinian leadership, an end to the war and the establishment of some kind of administration in Gaza that has nothing to do with Hamas.
The text is taken from the "New York Times"
Prepared by: NB
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