As NATO officials prepared in June for the alliance's July 9-12 summit in Washington, outgoing Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg began a traditional diplomatic mission ahead of the meeting aimed at avoiding unexpected disruptions.
Ahead of last year's gathering of NATO national leaders in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius, much attention was focused on Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and ensuring that he did not veto the entry of the newest member, Sweden, into the alliance. Given that the current summit marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of NATO, there is even less desire for any turmoil.
This time, the role of the potential chief disruptor of the summit seems to have shifted to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ahead of two key decisions that NATO is expected to make in Washington. Stoltenberg visited Hungary on July 12, holding a joint press conference with Orbán immediately afterward.
At the conference, Orbán promised that Hungary would not block a proposed plan for NATO to be given a direct role in coordinating military aid to Ukraine, which the Hungarian nationalist leader previously described as a "crazy mission."
Hungary also dropped its opposition to the appointment of Stoltenberg's successor, outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, as did the only other opponent, Slovakia.
Orban has often been criticized by other European countries for his authoritarian style, with which he has embraced both Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
At a joint press conference, Stoltenberg said that there is now an agreement that Hungarian personnel or assets will not be used in NATO support to Ukraine against the Russian invasion, but that without a Hungarian veto the process can continue.
However, exactly what the alliance and broader Western support for Ukraine will look like in the coming year remains rather unclear.
The two main NATO members, Great Britain and France, will hold parliamentary elections before the summit opens. Even more important are the elections for the president of the USA in November, where the current president Joe Biden will face Donald Trump in a close race. Much of the effort at the July summit, officials say, will be devoted to "protecting NATO from Trump's influence."
This includes putting NATO in the driving seat of what has so far been a US-led “Ramstein” process in coordinating military aid to Ukraine. So far, the alliance has limited its support to Ukraine to non-lethal products, leaving member states to make their own decisions about providing more aid.
The prospect of Trump completely withdrawing US support, however, has forced NATO to fill the void.
Britain's new Prime Minister, Labor leader Keir Starmer and his team will come to Washington promising to continue Great Britain's support for NATO and Ukraine.
However, defense was barely mentioned in the election campaign and it is not clear what Labor's position is on French President Emmanuel Macron's proposals to send a significant number of European troops to Ukraine itself.
Where that French plan stands after the unexpected early French parliamentary elections is also now uncertain.
After the far-right's strong showing in the European parliamentary elections, Macron appears to have called the election in hopes of consolidating his authority. But polls suggest the opposite could happen, and a humiliated Macron could be in a weaker position when he arrives in Washington.
DIVISIONS AROUND UKRAINE
Even if it doesn't, NATO members remain divided over the proposal. So far, Lithuania is the only member of the alliance that has explicitly stated that it could join such a French mission, while Estonia and Poland are also thought to be interested.
Several countries already widely report that they have a small number of military advisers supporting the government in Kiev, including providing intelligence and coordination.
Escalating such aid to several thousand people, however, would be a huge step, and many officials from several NATO countries say their governments may not have the appetite for it at this time.
As a result, for now, the possibility of a significant mission in Ukraine under the NATO flag is simply not an option. Also, much to the frustration of Ukraine and its Eastern and Central European supporters, no significant progress has been made on Kiev's path to NATO membership.
Biden has repeatedly said he does not believe the time is right for Ukraine to join the alliance, especially while it is at war with Russia.
For now, most officials and analysts say it appears that Western support for Ukraine will continue to grow, while restrictions imposed by nervous countries, especially the US and Germany, will gradually ease.
At the G7 summit in Italy in June, however, we saw the US and Ukraine sign a XNUMX-year defense agreement that formalized a much closer relationship, including US actions to be taken in the event of a future attack on Ukraine.
Privately, however — and increasingly publicly — officials from Eastern and Central European states have criticized the Biden administration for withholding military support, including until recently denying Ukraine the ability to use U.S. munitions to strike targets inside Russia, even when those targets were used to attacks on Ukraine.
For now, most officials and analysts say it appears that Western support for Ukraine will continue to grow, while restrictions imposed by nervous countries, especially the US and Germany, will gradually ease.
These include growing expectations that the number of European troops inside Ukraine will increase significantly if the war continues.
Ukrainian officials say they would like to see European personnel maintaining and repairing weapons systems, providing air defense and perhaps eventually even guarding Ukraine's northern border with Belarus to free up troops from Kiev to fight elsewhere.
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TRUMP
Even if Biden remains in the White House in November, most current and former U.S. officials are even more skeptical that significant U.S. forces will be sent to Ukraine — particularly because of concerns about how Moscow might react.
Meanwhile, Trump is said to be considering a proposal from his closest advisers to threaten to completely end US military support to Ukraine unless Ukraine begins peace talks with Moscow.
That would enrage many European allies, especially those in the east closer to Russia - although the prevailing feeling in Washington and Brussels right now is that Trump is too unpredictable to speculate on his actual course.
During his 2017-2021 presidency, Trump frequently criticized European allies for what he saw as their failure to adequately commit to funding their own defense.
Since then, defense spending on the European continent has indeed increased significantly, with most countries now meeting the alliance's 2014 target of at least two percent of gross domestic product being allocated to the military.
Even if Biden remains in the White House in November, most current and former U.S. officials are even more skeptical that significant U.S. forces will be sent to Ukraine — particularly because of concerns about how Moscow might react.
However, the most exposed nations on NATO's eastern flank are already complaining loudly that this is not enough. Poland now spends more than four percent of GDP on its defense, while the Baltic states are not far behind.
These are also the nations that allocate the largest parts of their economies to support Ukraine.
It points to a larger divide that the Washington summit may not be able to resolve diplomatically. Within Washington and major Western states, often including Germany, the conflict in Ukraine can still be seen as something to be “managed” as much as won, with a particular emphasis on not pushing Russia towards an even more dangerous escalation.
However, in many countries dominated by the Kremlin during the Cold War, the attitude is much harsher.
They increasingly believe that a re-armed and confident Russia is likely to come for them no matter what, unless it is completely defeated in Ukraine, and they are willing to take a series of ever-increasing risks to ensure that Putin loses.
The author is a Reuters columnist
translation: S. Strugar
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